The best weekend on the sports calendar is upon us! The NFL's divisional round never fails to deliver, and even if we get three meh games early on -- there are some large point spreads, that's for sure -- we always have the Chiefs-Bills Sunday nightcap (on CBS and streaming on Paramount+ if you didn't know, and if you did go ahead and tell someone) to salvage the weekend with an epic playoff battle between two conference rivals.
We got things started the right way last weekend, going a scorching 5-1 in this space with the Super Wild Card Weekend best bets so let's look to keep that rolling.
This looks like a much tougher week because the spreads are so wide and you could convince me either way on several of the games in terms of who covers which side of the spread.
Just like last weekend, I'm going to give out a bet for every single game below, so let's get to it.
Super Wild Card Weekend: 5-1 ATS
Overall Playoff Best Bets: 5-1 ATS
Ravens (-9) vs. Texans
The Browns weren't very successful when it came to scoring points against the Texans last weekend. In fact, the Texans defense actually scored the same number of touchdowns as the Browns offense, thanks to some Joe Flacco pick sixes. The Browns moved the ball decently, compiling 324 yards, they just whiffed on fourth down (0-fer on four attempts) and turned it over a ton. The Ravens are a much better offense than Cleveland -- they have about-to-be two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, who actually replaced Flacco in Baltimore, as if you needed a reminder how old Flacco is -- and should be able to move the ball through the air with relative ease. The return of Mark Andrews would've helped matters (he is not expected to be activated), but Houston being a pass funnel will. I expect the Ravens to come out of the gates hot and score early. Houston's potent offense might keep them in the game, but there's a chance Baltimore pulls off a repeat of Week 1 in which they limited C.J. Stroud to just nine points with their potent defense. We might be sleeping on the Ravens in terms of where they slot historically.
Isaiah Likely over 36.5 receiving yards
Mark Andrews looks ... likely to miss this divisional round matchup, giving his backup tight end the chance to continue as the starter for Baltimore. He's gone over this number in five of the last six games and doesn't need a ton of catches to surpass his total here, averaging north of 13.5 yards per catch for the 2023 season. Would highly recommend grabbing some Likely anytime touchdown scorer at anything above +150 as well.
Packers-49ers Over 50.5
The total and the spread here are likely going to hinge entirely on Jordan Love's performance. Love looks like the latest version of Green Bay's perpetual franchise quarterback, but he's also a first-year starter going up against a really good San Francisco defense. It wouldn't be outrageous if Love struggled here. But what if Love is just awesome? What if the Packers block up the Niners defensive line -- they have the offensive line to do it -- and these young Green Bay receivers are running open. Love's operating Matt LaFleur's offense quite well at the moment while also giving the Packers some freelancing when needed. Aaron Jones is playing great football, some of the best of his career, over the last few games and should continue that here. San Francisco should have no problem slinging it around against this Joe Barry defense. I see points galore in this one.
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in the divisional round.
Buccaneers-Lions Over 48.5
A real donkey this weekend! I want shootouts galore in the divisional round and think we'll get them. The Rams game in Detroit should have gone WAY over but the Rams struggled in the red zone, in extremely unlikely fashion. I think Baker Mayfield can deliver to Mike Evans in those spots and with both the Lions and Buccaneers defenses serving as pass funnels, this could really be an up-tempo game where we get a ton of intermediate and downfield throws from Baker and Jared Goff, in a surprising but extremely fun battle between two former No. 1 overall picks playing with different teams. Baker's won multiple playoff games, Goff's been to a Super Bowl ... this stage won't be too big for anyone and both teams could have the added advantage of seeing the Packers win Saturday night and knowing a win here would mean hosting the NFC Championship Game (which could mean being more aggressive on fourth downs and whatnot).
Bills (ML -140) vs. Chiefs
Fading the Chiefs as an underdog in the playoffs doesn't feel great! But this isn't quite as much about Kansas City as it is about Buffalo and it sort of being THEIR TIME. Gabe Davis, Taylor Rapp, Christian Benford and Baylon Spector were all ruled out Friday so we could see this moneyline dip towards the Chiefs a little bit more. I think this is an incredible game between the two best teams in the AFC over the last five years, the third installment of an intense playoff battle between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I'm not saying the Bills are "due" or anything but they're getting Mahomes on their own turf this time and this defense has been playing substantially better. I guess I'm a little worried they feel like they *have* to win this game, but Buffalo has been in playoff mode for over a month now. They get the job done in a close, epic game (on CBS and streaming on Paramount+).
Josh Allen anytime TD (-115)
This bet cashed easily against the Steelers thanks to Allen ripping off a 52-yard rushing touchdown. And I think it's good value again here against the Chiefs. This is the playoffs and it's not the Super Bowl but it's close for the Bills, who have some '90s Bulls stuff going on against Mahomes/Andy Reid and the Bad Boy Era Pistons. Allen is going to use his legs a ton again on Sunday night. And while James Cook has been reliable, he has had some issues with ball security. I think the Bills feed Allen if they get down near the goal line and he finds his way into the end zone for a rushing score pretty early on in this game.
