Six free agency moves that most changed NFL playoff picture: Kyler Murray, Mike Evans among impactful signings
Evans found a perfect match for both himself and his new team, the 49ers
Free agency is one week old, and it went by in a hurry, and 83 out of Pete Prisco's top 100 free agents already found new homes. Signings will continue to trickle in throughout the coming weeks and months, but for now, we can catch our collective breath, step back, and take a look at the league's new, vastly different landscape.
Some of the teams that made the biggest moves are still not quite ready to contend. The Raiders and the Titans have been the two biggest spenders -- by a considerable margin -- according to Over The Cap. Neither team is projected to threaten for the playoffs this season, though we'll never say never in a league as unpredictable as the NFL. So while they are, on paper, two of the most improved teams entering 2026, they couldn't have been a lot worse, either.
Rather, today, we'll focus on the individual moves that will shake up the playoff picture, whether it's elevating a team from the glut of "in-the-mix" outfits to more likely playoff participants or from playoff contender to Super Bowl contender.
(NOTE: All playoff odds via DraftKings)
1. QB Kyler Murray to the Vikings
- Contract: 1 year, $1.3 million (veteran minimum)
- Vikings' playoff odds: +165
As soon as it became apparent that Kyler Murray's time in Arizona was done -- whether one considers that his season-ending injury months ago or March 3 when the Cardinals informed him of the release decision -- Murray became arguably the most intriguing free agent available.
At his best, Murray is an accurate, talented thrower who can play on time and deliver downfield as well as a whirling dervish runner who can use his legs on designed runs as well as scrambles and play extensions as a thrower. The downsides are plentiful, too: He hasn't stayed healthy, his small stature causes him to struggle on some throws and rarely even try others, and he doesn't operate from under center.
Still, he could be a massive upgrade from what the Vikings trotted out at quarterback last year: J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer. The Vikings were 30th in expected points added per dropback last season, only ahead of the Titans and Browns. McCarthy finished 32nd in the stat, only ahead of Cam Ward; he was also 32nd in off-target rate and 33rd in completion percentage.
And yet the Vikings still went 9-8. The defense was absolutely outstanding, and with Brian Flores back, it should be again. If the offense can just stay afloat -- which it did in Arizona even in Murray's worst stretches -- Minnesota elevates to a true playoff contender with a very talented offense, two talented play callers and a defense that can dominate. The fact that the Vikings could add Murray for the veteran minimum because the Cardinals owe him so much makes it an even bigger win for Minnesota.
2. WR Mike Evans to the 49ers
- Contract: 3 years, $42.4 million
- 49ers' playoff odds: -175 | Buccaneers' playoff odds: +100
Mike Evans to the 49ers should be a football fan's dream -- a match so natural and potentially so fun that it is arguably my favorite of the offseason.
The 49ers desperately needed a big-bodied receiver to provide a more downfield juice and one-on-one ability than the outgoing Jauan Jennings. Enter Evans. At 32 (and turning 33 before the season starts), Evans is not exactly the seemingly unfair speed/size/strength/body control monster that led him to a record-tying 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons from 2014-24. He missed three games in 2024 and nine in 2025.
But make no mistake, this is still a player who can win short, intermediate and, every once in a while, deep. He still wins 50/50 balls. ESPN's receiver grades -- which combine "open," "catch" and "YAC" scores -- pegged him as the NFL's second-best wide receiver in 2024. Evans still beats man coverage, still wins on a bevy of in-breaking routes, still has the size and strength to be a red zone monster and still has the giddy-up to get downfield.
Evans reportedly sought a quarterback and a play caller to help him produce, plus a team with which he could win. The 49ers fit all three buckets: Brock Purdy is more than willing to put the ball up for grabs and throw the ball aggressively, and Kyle Shanahan will love scheming up one-on-one opportunities for a player who thrives in them. The 49ers, who also improved their defense, will be a trendy Super Bowl pick.
On the other side of things, the Buccaneers must feel devastated to lose Evans, an absolute icon who not only owns every franchise receiving record but owns them by a wide margin; Evans' 108 career touchdown catches are 67(!) more than second-place Chris Godwin. Evans won a Super Bowl in Tampa. Just last year, he said he was probably never going to leave Tampa. One year later, in Evans' estimation, though, the Buccaneers either didn't have a good enough quarterback, offensive infrastructure or chance to win a Super Bowl for Evans to stay. It's a big, big loss, coupled by ...
3 and 4. EDGE Jaelan Phillips, LB Devin Lloyd to Panthers
- Phillips contract: 4 years, $120 million
- Lloyd contract: 3 years, $45 million
- Panthers' playoff odds: +220
The Panthers made big splashes to open (Jaelan Phillips) and close (Devin Lloyd) the first day of the negotiating window. GM Dan Morgan added some major firepower to a defense in need of it.
When Phillips is on the field, he is fantastic. Last year, he was in the top 10 in pressures (73), hurries (57) and pressure rate (18.8%), the last of which was right around the very best pass rushers in the entire league. Carolina is betting on his health -- he medically retired in college and has had Achilles and ACL tears in the NFL -- and that his sack numbers will regress positively toward the mean. He has never had a double-digit sack season, but the other metrics show he's been more impactful than the sack numbers would suggest. The Panthers were 31st in pressure rate and 27th in sack rate last year.
Then, add in Lloyd, who picked off five passes last year and finally lived up to his first-round billing. Whether Lloyd's 2025 was the rule or the exception -- he had been unsteady in his first three seasons -- is TBD. What we do know is the Panthers greatly improved their defense around cornerstones DL Derrick Brown and CB Jaycee Horn.
The NFC South -- long the doormat division -- has seen the reigning-champion Panthers and the Saints make fun upgrades, the Falcons hire a new head coach and potentially bring in a new starting quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) and the Buccaneers lose quite a bit. It's a wide-open race.
5. EDGE Trey Hendrickson to the Ravens
- Hendrickson contract: 4 years, $112 million
- Ravens' playoff odds: -360
Regardless of how one views the Maxx Crosby trade going kaput due to a failed physical and the Ravens immediately signing Trey Hendrickson, it is a huge, huge result that Baltimore got the latter done.
Hendrickson is 31 and coming off core muscle surgery. He struggles against the run and has never been a true every-down player as a result. But he is a truly fearsome pass rusher who ranks third in sacks (39) over the past three seasons despite playing in just seven games in 2025. And sacks are very much what Baltimore needs after finishing 28th in pressure rate and 31st in sack rate last season.
Hendrickson gives the Ravens an ace pass rusher, something Baltimore has sorely missed recently. Should Nnamdi Madubuike return to health, he, Hendrickson and Travis Jones form an impressive trio, and the Ravens will hope Mike Green or another young pass rusher -- perhaps a player they take at No. 14 overall, now that it hasn't gone to the Raiders in the Crosby deal -- can help, too.
Baltimore still has holes on its roster, ones that caused it to go from preseason Super Bowl favorite to missing the postseason entirely last year. But Hendrickson, should he be healthy and get back to his 2023 and 2024 form, is a star EDGE addition at long last.
6. RB Kenneth Walker III to the Chiefs
- Walker contract: 3 years, $43 million
- Chiefs' playoff odds: -210
The Chiefs are in a strange spot coming off a 6-11 season in which Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. Kansas City lost its top two cornerbacks -- Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie -- and did some salary cap gymnastics to free up some room. Much of that room went to Kenneth Walker III, who interspersed electric moments with inconsistency and health issues for most of his first four seasons before going on a postseason run for the ages: 417 yards from scrimmage, four touchdowns and a Super Bowl MVP for the Seahawks.
Walker delivered the second-highest explosive run rate and the second-highest tackle avoidance rate last year. Chiefs running backs, meanwhile, were last and second-to-last, respectively, in those categories last year. They were last in both categories in 2024.
Walker is very different, obviously skill-wise but also stylistically, from Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. Hunt had the lowest average time behind the line of scrimmage (2.53 seconds) on runs last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He got the ball and plunged ahead. Walker, meanwhile, had the highest average time behind the line of scrimmage (3.11 seconds). Walker is more patient, yes, but he's also more of an improviser. He'll bounce runs outside when the inside lane isn't there. It leads to less consistency but more explosiveness. That hasn't been a formula for the Chiefs in some time.
Will it be enough to get Kansas City back on track? There, of course, are more factors at hand, but Walker being explosive in a running game that hasn't featured or prioritized explosiveness will be vital.
