NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backs Browns, Bengals in Week 3, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 3 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 21, 2024 at 9:38 am ET • 3 min read

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Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off to a 2-0 start after earning a redemption win over the Lions last week. Detroit knocked Tampa Bay out of the NFL Playoffs, but the Buccaneers overcame being outgained by 247 yards to earn a 20-16 win in Week 2. Now, the Bucs will host the Denver Broncos on Sunday and are favored by 6.5 in the Week 3 NFL odds. NFL underdogs of six points or more are a perfect 8-0 against the spread, so can the Broncos continue one of the eye-popping NFL betting trends, or will the Buccaneers stay hot and cover one of the largest NFL spreads of the week? All of the Week 3 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 3 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 3 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 3 NFL picks is that the Browns (-6.5, 38.5) cover the spread versus the Giants. Both teams have looked offensively challenged early in the year but it's likely to be Cleveland's defense that will give the Browns the edge in this matchup. They led the NFL in total defense last season and they've been excellent at getting off the field on third downs early in 2024.

Opponents are only 7-of-23 on third-down conversions over the first two games. The Cleveland defense had four different players register sacks in an 18-13 win over the Jaguars last week and Myles Garrett has a sack in each of his last three regular-season games. Expect Jim Schwartz to dial up plenty of pressure on Daniel Jones in Week 3, which is a big reason why the model has Cleveland covering in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 3 NFL predictions: the Bengals (-7.5, 47) cover versus the Commanders. Cincinnati is off to a disappointing 0-2 start after losing to the Chiefs on the final play of regulation in Week 2. However, the Bengals have won their last nine games against NFC opponents and the Commanders have only covered the spread twice in their last nine outings.

Washington is coming off a victory last week over the Giants but needed a one-of-a-kind game script to get it. They were the first team in NFL history to give up three touchdowns and fail to get into the end zone to win in regulation. That's an obviously unsustainable business model and this should be a bounceback spot for Joe Burrow and Cincinnati. SportsLine projects the Bengals to cover in well over 50% of its simulations on Monday. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 3 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 3 NFL schedule and just revealed three must-see underdogs who win outright, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.