The NFL is back, and for as much as we've prognosticated and hemmed and hawed and tried to predict what's going to happen, we are flying blind to some extent.

Week 1 in particular tends to produce not only some surprises, but some results that prove to be anomalies. Last year, the Raiders beat the Patriots in Week 1. The Steelers and the Jets(!) played one of the week's most entertaining games, a 34-32 comeback Pittsburgh win. To cap the week, J.J. McCarthy accounted for three fourth-quarter touchdowns to rally the Vikings past the Bears.

Our knowledge will improve as the season does, and hopefully so will this column. Each week, I'll have my best bets heading into the weekend, plus my full slate of picks. Let's do it.

NOTE: All odds via DraftKings.

Saquon Barkley OVER 100 rushing yards (+227)

Here's Saquon Barkley's history in four games as an Eagle against the Commanders:

  • Week 11, 2024: 26 carries, 146 yards, 2 touchdowns
  • Week 16, 2024: 29 carries, 150 yards, 2 touchdowns
  • NFC Championship Game, 2024: 15 carries, 118 yards, 3 touchdowns
  • Week 16, 2025: 21 carries, 132 yards, 1 touchdown

No player has ever run for 110+ yards in five straight games against Washington, nor has any Eagle run for 110+ yards in five straight games against a single opponent, but Barkley will be the first.

Philadelphia has revamped its run game, and its offensive line is as healthy as it's been in some time, perhaps dating back to two seasons ago, when Barkley ran for 2,005 yards and the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Washington had a bumpy close to training camp/the preseason, and while its starters are OK, there are significant depth questions. Plus, while I am high on Sonny Styles, this is a very tough assignment for a rookie linebacker in his NFL debut.

In a game that could have some stops and starts as both teams debut new offenses, Barkley ripping off a big run or two will give the Eagles a big boost.

Derrick Henry OVER 80 rushing yards (-112)

While I'm not quite as bullish on Derrick Henry as I am on Barkley, I'm willing to bet on a solid day for the ageless wonder. The Colts do get a major boost in the form of a healthy DeForest Buckner, but this is, again, a spot where I worry about the linebackers. Akeem Davis-Gaither is on his third team in three years. Jaylon Carlies played two defensive snaps last year. Those are the starters. Rookies CJ Allen and Bryce Boettcher have talent, but both emerged from the preseason as backups.

The Ravens brought in certified ass-kickers in guards John Simpson and Olaivavega Ioane, which should mitigate the loss of center Tyler Linderbaum. They also have new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, who will install more under-center plays. Henry actually averaged more yards per carry out of the shotgun (5.3 compared to 5.1), but he had a higher explosive run rate (10.8% to 8.0%) when the quarterback was under center. And we love explosive plays when chasing yardage totals.

Cam Ward and Geno Smith 1+ interceptions (+278)

You may look at this and say "duh." After all, Cam Ward struggled as a rookie (though he was actually pretty good at not turning the ball over).

But more importantly, this would mean something that did not happen at all last year: THE JETS WOULD RECORD AN INTERCEPTION!

That's right, in case you forgot amid all the other Jets misery, they became the first team since at least 1933 (when the NFL started tracking interceptions) to not pick off a single pass for an entire season.

The Titans' passing offense has not looked good this preseason, to put it nicely. The Jets added a ton of veterans to a defense that was basically incompetent at many points last year. It won't be a good unit, necessarily, but it will be functional. There's young talent up front: I'm a big fan of David Bailey, and I liked the T'Vondre Sweat addition a lot. Kingsley Enagbare, Joseph Ossai and Will McDonald IV can all provide pressure. Demario Davis is still getting it done at linebacker. Nahshon Wright had five interceptions last year. Minkah Fitzpatrick is 29 and no longer the All-Pro he once was, but he still has a nose for the ball.

Listen, at some point, the Jets have to pick off a pass, right? And on the other side, Geno Smith led the NFL with 17 interceptions last year. He had 15 the year before. His super aggressive play style leads to a wide variety of outcomes. If we combine the two quarterbacks, we get much tastier odds than betting on just one.

Browns-Jaguars UNDER 40.5 (-110)

I am going to be interested in Browns unders quite often this season, considering Deshaun Watson was quite literally one of the worst quarterbacks of the 21st century when we last saw him, and that was two Achilles tears ago.

On the other hand, the Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' offense went nuclear in the second half of last season, and maybe it will pick up right where it left off. But I'm skeptical. The run game was pretty meh last year, and the offensive line has issues. It can still be good, but I don't think it will run league-leading hot.

More importantly for this game, though, the Browns' defense is still really talented, even without Myles Garrett. Jared Verse is a very good player. Maliek Collins was excellent last year, and Cleveland is hoping 2025 No. 5 overall pick Mason Graham takes a big step in Year 2. Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger is outstanding. Denzel Ward is, too. I see this being a 24-10 Jacksonville win.

Broncos moneyline (+130)

I was surprised to see the Chiefs as a 2.5-point favorite against the Broncos on "Monday Night Football." Denver has won four of the last five meetings, and the defense has given Patrick Mahomes fits for even longer; Kansas City has scored under 20 points in six straight games against Denver. Vance Joseph might just have the secret stop-Mahomes formula. Offensively, the Broncos still have one of the best offensive lines in the game, and Jaylen Waddle adds a much-needed explosive element.

And remember, not only is Mahomes in his first game back from a torn ACL, but left tackle Josh Simmons isn't expected to play. That means undrafted rookie Khalil Benson is tasked with protecting Mahomes' blind side against a team that led the NFL in sacks last year. That's a rough combination.

There's been a ton of roster churn for the Chiefs. Many key contributors from the Super Bowl teams are gone. Many rookies are in. It's a bit of a transition year, though Mahomes is good enough to make any year a winning one. But there are too many questions at left tackle, at wide receiver and in the secondary right now.

Here's my full slate of picks:

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