We have reached the midway point of the 2024 regular season in the NFL. While teams have started to separate from one another, giving us a better sense of the contenders and pretenders throughout the league, the final stretch of the season is primed for some dramatic finishes.
For instance, the NFC West is tightly contested after Week 9, with the Arizona Cardinals holding a slim lead in the division. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have six wins on the year, and Cincinnati is still lurking, winning three of their last four games.
It's going to be a mad dash to the finish line, which should result in a fascinating look at how the sportsbooks gauge these various races, beginning with Week 10. Below, we will take our first look at the upcoming week of the regular season and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers believe will come out on top.
Note: Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas, and Seattle are on the bye in Week 10.
Week 10 early odds
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| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Ravens -6 | 52.5 | Bengals +215, Ravens -265 | |
Giants -4.5 | 41.5 | Giants -225, Panthers +185 | |
Falcons -3.5 | 47.5 | Falcons -185, Saints +154 | |
Vikings -4.5 | 47 | Vikings -205, Jaguars +170 | |
Chiefs -8.5 | 42 | Broncos +320, Chiefs -410 | |
Commanders -2.5 | 44.5 | Steelers +110, Commanders -130 | |
49ers at Buccaneers | 49ers -6 | 48 | 49ers -285, Buccaneers +230 |
Bills -5 | 47 | Bills -225, Colts +185 | |
Bears -6.5 | 39.5 | Patriots +260, Bears -325 | |
Chargers -7.5 | 38 | Titans +300, Chargers -380 | |
Jets at Cardinals | Cardinals -1 | 45.5 | Jets -105, Cardinals -115 |
Eagles -6 | 44 | Eagles -270, Cowboys +220 | |
Lions -4 | 48.5 | Lions -205, Texans +170 | |
Rams -2 | 50.5 | Dolphins +110, Rams -130 |
Notable movement, trends
Bengals at Ravens (Thursday)
The Ravens sit as a 6.5-point favorite after this line opened, with Baltimore laying a field goal at -3. Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens offense have been a juggernaut throughout the season, including in Week 9, where they notched 41 points against Denver. They are 5-3-1 ATS on the season and 2-1-1 ATS at home.
That said, the last time these teams played back in Week 5, the Bengals sent the Ravens to the brink, losing out 41-38 in overtime after a botched field goal by Evan McPherson. Cincinnati is 5-4 ATS on the season but is a much stronger bet on the road, where they are 4-0 ATS.
Giants at Panthers (in Munich)
This game will be played internationally as the Giants and Panthers will duke it out from Munich, Germany. On this neutral site, New York stands as a 4.5-point favorite after this game was essentially a pick'em at Giants -0.5 at the open. The Giants are favored for the first time after being the underdog in 24 straight games. The Giants have lost four straight coming into Week 10, while the Panthers snapped their losing skid on Sunday by upsetting the Saints at home. As you might expect, neither one of these clubs has been a particularly strong team to back on the betting markets. Carolina is 2-7 ATS (second-worst in the NFL), while the Giants are 3-6 ATS.
Falcons at Saints
Atlanta is currently slotted as a 3.5-point favorite. That has crossed several key numbers after opening at Falcons -1.5 but is justified following New Orleans' Week 9 loss to Carolina which has since resulted in the firing of head coach Dennis Allen. On top of that, the team may not have wideout Chris Olave, who was carted off on Sunday with a head injury. The Falcons also lost Drake London on Sunday due to a hip injury but are more equipped to put up points than their division rival, even if he can't suit up.
Atlanta is 5-4 ATS on the season and a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road. As for the Saints, they've struggled at the Superdome, owning a 1-3 ATS record at home this year.
Vikings at Jaguars
It may come as a bit of a surprise even with this game being played in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars opened as a 2-point favorite in this game. That has since been corrected by the market, and the Vikings are situated as a 4.5-point road favorite following a prime time win against Indianapolis on Sunday night. Minnesota has been among the more solid teams to back this season with a 6-2 ATS record and has gone 2-1 ATS on the road. The Jaguars are 5-4 ATS this season but do own a 1-2 ATS record at home.
Broncos at Chiefs
This line could still see some movement with the Chiefs yet to play on Monday night, but this number has come down slightly after opening at Kansas City -9. Now, the Chiefs are laying 8.5 points at home to a Broncos squad that has been one of the surprise teams of the season, even after losing to Baltimore. They are 5-4 straight-up on the season and currently in playoff position as the No. 7 seed. Denver is 6-3 ATS on the season, which includes a 4-1 ATS mark on the road.
Steelers at Commanders
Pittsburgh opened as a 1.5-point road favorite, but the Commanders have since swung the odds back in their favor and are laying 2.5-point coming out of Week 9. The Steelers were on the bye, so they will have a rest advantage against Washington. Under Mike Tomlin (since 2007), the Steelers have covered 56.3% of their games when they have the rest advantage and are 11-9 ATS after a bye. They are also 3-1 ATS on the road this season. While those are positive trends for Pittsburgh, Washington has been a stellar bet this season as they are a league-best 7-1-1 ATS. That includes a 4-0 ATS record at home.
49ers at Buccaneers
The Niners, who are laying 6 points as a road favorite, were on the bye this week and will face a Buccaneers team that will be playing on a short week after taking on the Chiefs on Monday night. That's as tough of a situation as you can ask for, particularly if San Francisco gets some of its injured players back healthy. However, the 49ers haven't been a lock coming off the bye. Under Kyle Shanahan (since 2017), San Francisco is 4-5 ATS off of the bye. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 2-3 ATS this season at home, and San Francisco is 1-2 ATS on the road.
Bills at Colts
Buffalo opened as a 2-point favorite over the Colts in Indy, but that has since jumped to Bills -5. Josh Allen's team is just 5-4 ATS on the season, which includes a 3-2 ATS mark on the road. They'll take on a Colts team that is 4-0 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium and looking to rebound after falling to the Vikings on Sunday night.
Patriots at Bears
Chicago is close to becoming a full touchdown favorite over New England, laying 6.5 points for this matchup after the line opened at Bears -4.5. Both of these teams are coming off road losses in Week 9, with Chicago falling to Arizona, while the Patriots couldn't spring to victory over Tennessee after forcing overtime. This will be a tough task for Jerod Mayo's team as the Bears have been perfect against the number at home this season with a 3-0 ATS record. Meanwhile, New England is 2-2 ATS.
Titans at Chargers
The Chargers are starting to truly open eyes with their strong play under Jim Harbaugh this season. They are currently in playoff position as the second half begins and have been a strong team to back on the betting markets. They are 5-3 ATS and are now a 7.5-point favorite over Tennessee after the line opened at Chargers -4. Los Angeles is 2-1 ATS at home this season, while the Titans are a league-worst 1-7 ATS overall and 1-3 ATS on the road.
Jets at Cardinals
The Jets opened as a field-goal favorite on the road, but that has since shifted toward Arizona. The Cardinals are now a 1-point home favorite over New York. Kyler Murray and Co. have been a sneaky strong bet throughout the season at 6-3 ATS and are currently in first place in the NFC West. While the Jets did have a strong rebound game on Thursday, they are still just 3-6 ATS on the year and are among the worst teams to bet on when on the road this season with a 1-3 ATS record.
Eagles at Cowboys
This line has shifted rather dramatically, and rightfully so, given the uncertain status of Dak Prescott after he left Sunday's loss to Atlanta with a hamstring injury. Dallas opened as a 1.5-point favorite against its division rival, but that has since swung to Philadelphia, and the Eagles are laying 6 points in the matchup. Even if Prescott were fully healthy, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if the Cowboys were home dogs. They have yet to cover at AT&T Stadium this season, owning a 0-3 ATS record. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 3-1 ATS on the road.
Lions at Texans
After Houston opened as a slim half-point favorite, the Lions are now a 4-point favorite on the road. Detroit is looked at as arguably the best team in the NFL and has been among the best to bet on. They are 7-1 ATS and a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road. Houston is coming off a loss to the Jets last Thursday and is 3-5-1 ATS on the season. That includes a 1-2-1 ATS record at home.
Dolphins at Rams (Monday)
Miami opened as a half-point favorite on the road, but the Rams have since moved as a 2-point favorite at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles is 2-2 ATS at home this season, while the Dolphins are 2-2 ATS on the road, so something will need to give with this head-to-head. It is worth noting that Sean McVay hasn't had the most success against non-conference teams during his tenure (since 2017), as the Rams are 14-17-3 ATS against the AFC (45.2%), which is the bottom third of the league over that stretch.
