NFL Wild Card Weekend goes off the rails, plus Texans-Steelers playoff picks and 2025 All-Pro team

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

There almost wasn't a newsletter today because I'm still trying to recover from what was arguably the craziest Wild Card Weekend in NFL history. 

• There were four games decided by four points or less, which is the most for any playoff round in NFL history
• There were 12 fourth-quarter lead changes, which is the most for a single postseason in NFL history (That isn't just a record for the wild card round -- it's the NFL record for an entire postseason)
• There were four game-winning touchdowns scored in the final three minutes of the fourth quarter, which is the most ever for an entire postseason

I think what I'm trying to say here is that the entire weekend was bonkers. We'll be rehashing every game from the weekend in today's newsletter, plus, we'll be previewing tonight's game between Steelers and Texans.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Breaking down Wild Card Weekend: Underdogs go 3-2 in opening round

Since things got so wild over the weekend, we thought it would make sense to at least take a brief look at what happened in each game, so that's what we're going to do here. In a surprise twist, underdogs went 3-2 over the weekend with the Bears, Bills and 49ers all winning. The 49ers pulled off the biggest upset, beating the Eagles as a 5.5-point underdog. 

Let's take a brief look at each game: 

• (5) Rams 34-31 (4) Panthers. The Panthers almost pulled off the upset, but they couldn't stop Matthew Stafford with the game on the line. With the Rams trailing 31-27, Stafford engineered a 71-yard game-winning scoring drive that ended when he hit Colby Parkinson with a 19-yard touchdown with just 38 seconds left to play (You can see the play here). Stafford threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns in the win. On Carolina's end, Bryce Young threw for 264 yards and a touchdown in his first career playoff game. You can check out our full takeaways from the game here. 
• (2) Bears 31-27 over (7) Packers. The Bears pulled off the third-largest fourth-quarter comeback in NFL history. Going into the final quarter, the Bears were trailing by 15 points, but they were able to erase that deficit during a miracle quarter where they outscored the Packers, 25-6. Caleb Williams threw for more yardage (184) in the fourth quarter than he did in the first three quarters combined (177). Williams capped things off with a 25-yard score to DJ Moore with just 1:43 left to win the game. There were a lot of reason the Packers lost, but one of the biggest ones was the fact that Brandon McManus missed three kicks. The Packers kicker went 0-for-2 on field goal attempts while also missing an extra point (If you want to know how he reacted to those missed kicks, we've got that here). We've got quite a few takeaways from this game, and you can check them out here. 
• (6) Bills 27-24 over (3) Jaguars. For the first time in his career, Josh Allen led a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. The Bills' franchise quarterback scored the game-winning touchdown on a 1-yard run with just one minute left to play. Allen also threw a 15-yard TD pass in the fourth quarter to help propel Buffalo to the win. Allen totaled 306 yards and three touchdowns in the win. For the Bills, it was their first road playoff win in 33 years. For Jacksonville, it was heartbreak. The Jags actually got the ball back with 59 seconds left to play needing just a field goal to tie the game, but their drive ended on the first play after Trevor Lawrence threw an interception. For more on Buffalo's win, be sure to click here. 
• (6) 49ers 23-19 over (3) Eagles. The 49ers pulled off the biggest shocker of the weekend by going on the road to beat the Eagles. After losing George Kittle to an Achilles injury in the first half, the 49ers had some unlikely heroes, including Demarcus Robinson, who caught six passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. Christian McCaffrey also came up big with two touchdowns, including the game-winning score, which came on a 4-yard pass from Brock Purdy with just 2:54 left to play. The Eagles had a chance to win the game in the final minutes, but they got stopped on a fourth down at San Francisco's 21-yard line with just 40 seconds left to play. The Eagles would have just needed a field goal on their final drive if Jake Elliott wouldn't have missed an extra point earlier in the game. We covered San Francisco's win in full and you can check out our story here. 
  
• (2) Patriots 16-3 over (7) Chargers. The Patriots defense took over in this game and carried New England to the win. Justin Herbert got sacked six times on a night where the Patriots held the Chargers out of the end zone while also holding them to under 210 yards of total offense. The Patriots offense didn't light up the scoreboard, but Drake Maye was impressive in his first career postseason start, throwing for 268 yards and rushing for 66 more. The Patriots are now headed to the divisional round for the first time since 2018. For more on the biggest (and only) blowout of Wild Card Weekend, you can check out our full story here. 

Seven of the eight spots in the divisional round have now been filled, and with the 49ers and Rams both advancing, that means the NFC West will become just the second division over the past 25 years to send three teams to the divisional round.  

As for the the wild card round, we have one more game coming tonight and we'll be previewing it below. 

2. Monday night preview: Prepping you for Texans at Steelers

The final game of the wild card round is going down in Pittsburgh with the fourth-seeded Steelers hosting the fifth-seeded Texans. The winner of tonight's game will earn a free trip to New England for a divisional-round showdown with the Patriots. 

Although the Steelers are the home team, the oddsmakers have tabbed the Texans as a 3-point favorite. If the Texans want to win, they'll have to do something that no team has done since 1991: Beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh on a Monday night. The Steelers have won 23 straight Monday night home games. Their last loss came in October 1991 and they've won every game since. 

With that in mind, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident: 

• Why the Texans can win: The Texans had the best defense in the NFL during the regular season and that gives them a chance to win any game. Houston gave up the fewest yards per game (277.2) and the second-fewest points per game (17.4). The Texans defense is so good that if the offense can just score 20 points that pretty much guarantees that Houston will win. The Texans are 11-0 this season when they score 20 points or more, but just 1-5 when they don't. If C.J. Stroud can get his team to the 20-point mark, the Texans will likely advance. 
• Why the Steelers can win: With the Steelers going up against such a tough defense, they need to play smart football and Aaron Rodgers knows how to play smart football. The Steelers need to do everything they can to avoid turning the ball over and if that happens, they should be able to stay in the game. The Steelers are 0-5 this season when they turn the ball over two times or more, but 10-2 when their turnover number is one or zero. Offensively, if the Steelers can figure how to run the ball on Houston's defense, they should be in good shape. The Texans went 3-3 this season when their opponent ran for 100 yards or more. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. 

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via DraftKings). 

• ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 rushing yards (-108): This could be the final game of Aaron Rodgers' career and if he proved one thing in Week 18, it's that he's willing to do whatever it takes to win when the season is on the line. Rodgers rushed for 20 yards against the Ravens and he ended the season by rushing for at least 6 yards in three straight games. Obvious, six isn't a high number, but he only needs to finished with 2 yards to hit the over and I like his chances to hit that. 
  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Ka'imi Fairbairn OVER 7.5 points (-141): The Texans kicker has scored at least eight points in nine straight games dating all the way back to Week 8. And that includes a Week 18 performance where he scored 20 points. Fairbairn kicked a total of 44 field goals in 2025, which not only led the NFL, but it was tied for the most in NFL history. The Texans love to use their kicker and I'll be surprised if he doesn't top 7.5 points. 

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 36-32 (15-17 on kicker props and 21-15 on all other props). Now, it's time for some picks.  

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

My pick: Texans 19-16 over Steelers
Dubin's pick: Texans 16-10 over Steelers
Prisco's pick: Steelers 23-20 over Texans
Tyler Sullivan: Texans 28-20 over Steelers
Jordan Dajani: Texans 14-13 over Steelers

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, only two of us are taking the Steelers to beat the Texans. 

3. Overreactions from Wild Card Weekend: Is Matt LaFleur on the hot seat? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened over the weekend to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement: Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat.  
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The loss on Saturday was an utter collapse by LaFleur's Packers, who allowed Chicago to outscore them 28-6 in the second half. It's the type of loss that makes an organization reevaluate everything and can result in heads rolling, especially when it continues a pattern of falling short of expectations. This marks the second straight year Green Bay has been one-and-done in the postseason, and LaFleur's playoff record with the Packers has dropped to 3-6.

Statement: Injuries will prevent 49ers from reaching the Super Bowl. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. There's no denying the 49ers have been hit hard by injuries. They've been among the most injured teams in the entire league and have lost foundational pieces throughout the year, including tight end George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury during Sunday's playoff win over the Eagles. ... But they've shown enough perseverance that it's hard to put a cap on what they can accomplish, especially when they have some of the best coaching that the NFL has to offer. 

Statement: Rams' defense and special teams will be their demise. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Even after narrowly escaping the Panthers, the Rams still have a Super Bowl ceiling thanks to the brain trust of Stafford and Sean McVay. However, if they fall short of hoisting a second Lombardi Trophy during this Stafford era, it would likely be due to the other two phases of the game: defense and special teams. The L.A. defense didn't have many answers for Bryce Young and the Panthers' passing attack. ... As for special teams, this has been a problem for the Rams all season.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, we've got some from Saturday's games here and we have a few more from Sunday's games that you can see here. 

4. Divisional round schedule is out

Even though the wild card round isn't even over yet, we already know the divisional round schedule, and that's because the NFL announced it on Sunday night. Well, they announced most of it. They told us the dates of the game, but didn't give us the specific times. Those won't be announced until after the Texans-Steelers game tonight. 

The two teams that got a bye during the wild card round -- the Broncos and Seahawks -- will both be playing on Saturday.

With that in mind, here's a look at the playoff schedule for the divisional round. 

Saturday, Jan. 17 (4:30 p.m. ET or 8 p.m. ET)

• (6) Bills at (1) Broncos (+1.5). This will be the first time these two teams have played each other since last year's postseason when the Bills destroying the Broncos, 31-7, in a wild card game. That game was played in Buffalo, but this game will be played in Denver, where the Broncos have won four straight playoff games dating to the 2013 season. 
• (6) 49ers at (1) Seahawks (-7). These two teams will be facing each other for the third time this season. The 49ers beat Seattle, 17-13, back in Week 1. But then, the Seahawks got revenge in Week 18 with a 13-3 win that clinched the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC for Seattle. The 49ers are 5-0 in the divisional round under Kyle Shanahan. 

Sunday, Jan. 18 (3 p.m. ET or 6:30 p.m. ET)

• Texans/Steelers at (2) Patriots. The only thing we know about this game is that the Patriots will definitely be hosting it. If the Patriots face the Steelers, it will be a rematch of a Week 3 games that Pittsburgh won, 21-14. If the Patriots face the Texans, they'll have to figure out a way to move the ball against the best defense in the NFL. Mike Vrabel has coached two games against DeMeco Ryans and he's gone 0-2 in those games. 
• (5) Rams at (2) Bears (-4.5). With the Rams facing the Bears in the divisional round, Sean McVay will somehow be facing his 15th different team in 15 career postseason games. Since being hired by the Rams, McVay has only coached two games in Chicago and he lost both of them. One thing to watch in this game will be the weather with the temperature expected to be under 20 degrees. 

You can see the full playoff schedule here. One interesting note about the schedule is that Kyle Shanahan actually asked the NFL to give his team a Sunday game in the divisional round, but the league ignored him. The 49ers will now be playing on a short week for the third time in four weeks. We've got the full details on Shanahan's plea with the league here. 

5. NFL's All-Pro team revealed: Matthew Stafford gets nod at QB over Drake Maye

The playoffs were do so dramatic over the weekend that you might have missed that fact that annual All-Pro team was revealed. The list came out on Saturday and for the first time in his 17-year career, Matthew Stafford was the first-team quarterback. Stafford is now just the second player ever to earn his first nod on the first team after at least 17 years in the league, joining former NFL kicker Gary Anderson, who was also voted a first-team All-Pro in his 17th season. 

Let's take a look at the first-team offense: 

QB: Matthew Stafford (Rams)
RB: Bijan Robinson (Falcons)
FB: Kyle Juszczyk (49ers)
WR: Puka Nacua (Rams)
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)
WR: Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals)
TE: Trey McBride (Cardinals)
LT: Garrett Bolles (Broncos)
LG: Joe Thuney (Bears)
C: Creed Humphrey (Chiefs)
RG: Quinn Meinerz (Broncos)
RT: Penei Sewell (Lions)
All-Purpose: Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

For most of history, the first-team All-Pro QB has ended up winning the MVP, but there's no guarantee that's going to happen and that's mostly because of how things went down last year. In 2024, Lamar Jackson was the first-team All-Pro QB, but Josh Allen ended up being voted MVP. There are 50 voters for the All-Pro team and Stafford got 31 first-place votes while Drake Maye got 18 (The other one went to Josh Allen). 

The Broncos led the way with four players on the first team. If you want to see the full list of every player who was voted an All-Pro this year, we've got that here. 

6. Extra points: 49ers lose George Kittle for the rest of the year

It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• George Kittle suffers brutal injury. The 49er star tight end tore his Achilles during the first half of San Francisco's win over the Eagles, which means he's done for the year. This kind of injury generally has a long rehab, so the fact that it happened so late in the season means there's certainly a chance that Kittle might not be ready for the start of the 2026 season. It's a brutal blow for a 49ers team that will be traveling to Seattle this week. 
• Packers want to keep Matt LaFleur. There's been some speculation that LaFleur might be on the hot seat after Green Bay's Saturday loss to the Bears, but apparently, that's not the case. According to ESPN, the Packers are expected to try and work out an extension with their head coach in the coming days. LaFleur's contract expires after the 2026 season and it's hard to see him coaching next season without a new deal in place, so it will be interesting to see how the negotiation plays out. 
• Rams catch a break with Matthew Stafford's injury. The Rams star QB injured a finger on his throwing hand after banging it on a helmet during his team's 34-31 win over the Panthers. The good news for the Rams is that the X-rays on Stafford's finger came back negative, which means he should be good to go for the divisional round.
• Mike McDaniel has four head coaching interviews scheduled this week. The former Dolphins head coach is a popular candidate right now. According to NFL Media, McDaniel will be interviewing with four different teams this week about their head coaching job: Browns, Falcons, Titans and Ravens. McDaniel is also expected to interview with the Lions about their open offensive coordinator job. We're tracking every coaching and GM interview and if you want to follow along, you can do that here.