Pick Six: Patriots-Bears predictions for Thursday night, plus NFL Week 7 picks and possible upsets

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

We had some big news drop here at CBS Sports today: JJ Watt has signed a new deal that officially makes him the lead analyst in our No. 1 NFL booth with Jim Nantz and Tracy Wolfson. 

The new deal means that Watt will be in the announcer's booth for Super Bowl LXII next season. For those of you scoring at home, that is only 479 days away. 

Watt has been with CBS Sports since 2023, when he was hired as a studio analyst on "The NFL Today." In 2025, he made the move to the announcer's booth, where he teamed up with Ian Eagle and Evan Washburn. And now, he's in the top booth. 

Not only does he crush it in the broadcast booth, but Watt is also an extremely entertaining guy to follow on social media, so I'd suggest you follow him on Instagram or even X. 

And now, let's get back to our normal newsletter business. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all of your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, just click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Patriots at Bears

The Bears only have one Super Bowl win in franchise history, and it came over the Patriots back in 1985. The reason I'm bringing that up now is that the Bears will be honoring Mike Ditka tonight, and he was the coach of that 1985 team. This is the team's first home game since Ditka's passing on Oct. 9, so the Bears will be celebrating his life. Good luck, Patriots. 

On the injury front, the Patriots are banged up going into this game, especially on the offensive line. They'll be down two starters with starting guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown both ruled out. As for the Bears, they'll be missing Kyle Monangai for the third straight game. 

Now that we've got that out of the way, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Patriots can win: Since the start of last season, no quarterback has been better at throwing deep passes than Drake Maye. The Patriots QB has completed 56% of his passes and thrown 16 TD passes on throws of 15 air yards or more in that span. Now, he gets to go up against a Bears defense that has been the worst in the NFL at stopping long passes. Dating back to the start of the 2025 season and through this week, the Bears have ranked dead last in the NFL in completion percentage on long passes and in touchdowns allowed (17). If the Patriots get their long ball going tonight, they might be able to pull off the upset.
• Why the Bears can win: This might be a situation where the Bears can just let the Patriots beat themselves. This game is being played in Chicago, and the Patriots have been bad on the road this year. They've turned the ball over eight times in just three games, with six of those coming on interceptions from Drake Maye. The Bears are 3-0 this season in any game where they've forced a turnover, so they need to be opportunistic tonight. It would also help the Bears to get their running game going. Only one team has topped 100 yards on the Patriots this year, and that came in Week 3 when the Jags destroyed New England 35-6. The Bears have the top rushing attack in the NFL, and if they get that going, it's hard to see them losing this game. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: A.J. Brown OVER 5.5 receptions (+111 at DraftKings): In his return to the lineup on Sunday, Brown got targeted 10 times, and we could see a similar number in Chicago, given the Patriots' banged-up receiver room. Brown did uncharacteristically drop three passes against the Jets on Sunday, and I have to think he'll want to make up for that, so I won't be surprised if he has a big night.  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Andres Borregalas OVER 6.5 points (-125 at DraftKings): The Patriots have a high-powered offense, but they've struggled to score in the red zone, ranking just 18th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage. That means there should be ample scoring opportunities for Borregalas in this game. Also, the Bears have played three home games this year, and the road kicker is averaging 7.3 points per game in those three matchups. 
  

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 8-16 (3-9 on kicker props and 5-7 on all other props). After starting off 5-3, I'm now 3-13 on my last 16 props. It has been a NIGHTMARE. This is all clearly a sign that you should be fading me until further notice.

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Jared Dubin's pick: Bears 31-27 over Patriots
John Breech's pick: Bears 27-20 over Patriots
Jordan Dajani's pick: Bears 28-24 over Patriots
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Bears 24-20 over Patriots
Prisco's pick: Patriots 28-27 over Bears

If you want to know which way all of our experts are leaning tonight, you can check that out on our CBSSports.com picks page. 

2. NFL Week 7 picks: Browns improve to 5-2, Chiefs upset Seahawks

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have five NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and myself — handing out picks each week. I have some big news: For the first time all season, Jared Dubin took home the weekly crown. I don't want to rain on Dubin's parade, but I'm pretty sure the only reason he won is because the rest of us choked the week away. Prisco, Sullivan, and I all finished under .500 for the week while Dajani went 8-6. We basically GAVE Dubin this week's title. I will not be getting Dubin anything for the holidays. That is the only gift he'll be getting from me this year. 

Anyway, if you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 7 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 7 picks; if you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life. 

• Pete Prisco — Bengals (+3) 24-23 over Ravens. From Prisco: "The Bengals are coming off a bye, while the Ravens are coming off a loss to the Browns. They could have Lamar Jackson back from an ankle injury here, which certainly changes things. Even if he's back, I think Joe Burrow will have a big day throwing it. The improved Bengals defense will do the rest. Upset." For the rest of Prisco's Week 7 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan — Browns (-1.5) 24-17 over Titans. From Sullivan: "The Browns are ... good? They pulled off an upset win over the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens last week and, remarkably, stand in first place in the AFC North heading into Week 7. Deshaun Watson has been clutch this season, as he has four game-winning drives where he's been money. In that window, Watson has completed 75% of his passes (18-of-24), thrown for 179 yards, and has two touchdowns with zero interceptions. To his credit, Cam Ward has also popped in the fourth quarter this season as well, but Tennessee is also tied for the fewest points scored in the NFL over the first three quarters. If that persists, Cleveland has a defense capable of snuffing out any late Ward comeback attempt." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 7 picks, be sure to click here.
• Jordan Dajani — Steelers 23-20 over Saints (+3.5). From Dajani: "The Steelers are impossible to figure out. From week-to-week — or even half-to-half, as evidenced by last week's overtime victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you're going to give me the hook at +3.5 in an international game, I'm probably going to take it. The Saints are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games away from home, and are 3-0 ATS all-time in international games." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
• Jared Dubin — Lions (-3) 34-28 over Packers. From Dubin: "This one has all the makings of a shootout, with two explosive offenses going back and forth. Jared Goff and Co. are coming off the bye, and they have scored 31 or more points in four of their five games to date — and they scored 26 while piling up 452 yards in the other one. Nobody except maybe Kenneth Walker III is doing it at a higher level than Jahmyr Gibbs right now, either. Meanwhile, Green Bay can throw the ball all over the yard, and everyone throws it on the Lions. Maybe Green Bay can actually run with some efficiency in Josh Jacobs' potential return, but it's not like he was all that efficient last season, either. I lean toward the Lions because they can beat you both ways." For the rest of Dubin's Week 7 picks, be sure to click here. 
• John Breech — Chiefs (+2.5) 27-20 over Seahawks. From me: "This is the Kenneth Walker revenge game. Walker is on a personal 15-game winning streak that dates back to last year: He won his final 10 games with the Seahawks, and he's won his first five with Kansas City. All the man does is win, so I certainly will not be picking against him in this spot." For the rest of my Week 7 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 7 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here. 

3. NFL Week 7 upset alert: Three favorites who could go down

We saw several big upsets in Week 6, including Arizona's shocking win over the Rams and the Browns' win over the Ravens. There's nothing I love more than a big upset, so I'm hoping those shocking finishes carry over into Week 7. 

So, who should be on upset alert this week? 

Tyler Sullivan is here to tell us. 

• Giants (+10.5) over Texans. Welcome to the J.J. McCarthy era in New York. I'm genuinely curious to see how this goes for the former Vikings first-round pick, who made his debut last week in the fourth quarter. In that brief showing, McCarthy largely played well, throwing for 243 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Does this give the Giants a boost? McCarthy will have weapons at his disposal in Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely, and it's possible his rushing ability ignites what has been a lackluster ground attack thus far. Meanwhile,  the Texans will have a slight rest disadvantage here. While they may be home, Houston is fresh off a game in London last Sunday, which could be a factor in this contest. 
• Falcons (+3) over 49ers. At some point, the injuries to San Francisco's wide receiver room have to matter, right? When Mike Evans (Achilles) didn't return for the second half of Monday's matchup against the Commanders, the Niners offense mustered a field goal on the opening possession of the third quarter and then punted three straight times (all three-and-outs) to end the game. With the Week 8 bye right in front of them and San Francisco playing on a short week and on the road, it may behoove them to keep Evans sidelined for this game, with hopes of a two-week break being the remedy for the stretch run. If that turns out to be the case, we got a quick sample of an Evans-less offense for the 49ers, and it wasn't the prettiest. That brings San Francisco down much closer to Atlanta's level and makes them a live home dog. 
• Cardinals (+4.5) over Broncos. It's borderline irresponsible to back the Broncos right now because their offense is totally lost. Bo Nix is averaging just 4.9 air yards per attempt this season, which is the fewest through six games by any player in the last 20 seasons. They won last week despite his performance and the defense taking advantage of some questionable throws by Sam Darnold. Now, they head out on the road to face a Cardinals team that has been pesky this season. Most recently, they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense to 16 points in a road win.

You can check out Sullivan's full list of possible upsets for Week 7 here. 

4. Ranking first-year NFL head coaches: Todd Monken on top

It's been a wild year so far for the NFL's newest head coaches: Five of them are currently in first place or tied for first place, while one of them currently has ZERO wins. 

There were 10 coaches hired this offseason, and since we're roughly one-third of the way through the season, Garrett Podell has decided it's time to rank how each coach is doing. 

Here are the top three names in Garrett's ranking: 

1. Browns coach Todd Monken. Monken is currently pulling off a miracle: His Browns are in first place in the AFC North in Week 6 or later for the first time since 2014. That's absolutely incredible. There's certainly a smoke-and-mirrors element to it, as the Browns have the worst point differential (-16) among teams with a winning record this season, but wins are wins. 

2. Bills coach Joe Brady. Brady has an unfair advantage among his class of 2026 head-coaching hires because he has been his team's offensive coordinator since 2023. Quarterback Josh Allen leads the NFL in total touchdowns (17), and running back James Cook's 627 yards rushing rank as the third most in the NFL.

3. Ravens coach Jesse Minter. Inheriting two-time NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson is a blessing for new Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter, but he hasn't had him the last two weeks because of an ankle injury. In Week 5, Minter's squad went on the road in primetime and beat the Falcons on "Sunday Night Football" with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. The Ravens' +24-point differential is the eighth-best in the NFL this season, and they have the same record as the Browns and Steelers atop the AFC North. 

In news that probably won't surprise you, Dolphins' coach Jeff Hafley, who has ZERO wins so far, is ranked at the bottom of the list. If you want to see where all 10 coaches fall in Garrett's ranking, you'll have to check out his full story here. 

5. NFL trade deadline: Five players that need a change of scenery

Don't look now, but the NFL trade deadline (Nov. 10) is just around the corner. We started breaking down some possible trades more than two weeks ago, and we're going to continue that today by taking a look at a few players who could use a change of scenery. 

Basically, Jordan Dajani came up with a list of five players who probably won't be dealt, but we'd like to see them get moved. 

1. Chargers QB Justin Herbert. The Chargers are 0-6, and there's little hope this team can turn it around. Offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat — the same could be said for head coach Jim Harbaugh — and now, injuries are beginning to mount. If quarterback Justin Herbert couldn't figure it out with Ladd McConkey, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt healthy, what's it going to look like with all of them out/injured? Herbert needs a more comfortable situation — maybe one that includes a Brian Flores defense and Justin Jefferson.

2. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor, on the other hand, has racked up 655 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns through the first six games of the season. He just became the fastest player to reach 8,000 career rushing yards since Adrian Peterson, and he should be carrying the rock for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. (Note: If you're wondering what teams might be interested in trading for Taylor, we came up with five different trade packages here)

3. Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby. We thought Maxx Crosby got the change of scenery he was after in March, when the Baltimore Ravens agreed to send two first-round picks to the Las Vegas Raiders for their star pass rusher. However, the Ravens backed out of the deal after their doctors allegedly found something worrisome during their in-person physical. I don't know if Crosby still wants out of Vegas. Maybe he viewed the canceled trade as divine intervention signaling he was always meant to don the silver and black. The Raiders are more competitive this year than they have been in quite some time, but I would still like to see Crosby on a winning team. 

If you want to see Jordan's full list of players who need to be traded, we've got that here. 

6. Extra points: NFL punishes three head coaches with near-record fines

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• NFL drops the hammer on three head coaches. Mike Vrabel, Nick Sirianni and Aaron Glenn have all been fined $250,000 by the NFL for their conduct toward game officials. Although they had to pay the fine, all three coaches have been told that they can get their money back if they show good behavior going forward. The NFL is clearly trying to send a message: The fines handed out are the second-largest in league history for any head coach, trailing only the $500,000 fine Bill Belichick received for Spygate. If you want the full story on these near-record fines, we've got all the details here, along with some video of each coach yelling at an official. 
• Giants rolling with J.J. McCarthy at QB this week.  After watching McCarthy throw for 243 yards in the FOURTH QUARTER against the Saints on Sunday, John Harbaugh has seen enough. The Giants coach has announced that McCarthy will not only start this week against the Texans, but he'll likely be the starter after that. "I would never say that anything is permanent in football or life. That's the plan going forward," Harbaugh said. The Giants traded for McCarthy back on Sept. 28, and now, less than a month later, he'll be getting his first start with the team. 
• Vice president attends Bengals practice. JD Vance decided to stop by Bengals' practice on Wednesday after taking part in a campaign rally just north of Cincinnati. You can see some of the footage from his visit here. Vance is a long-time Bengals fan, and when he's not in Washington, D.C., he makes his home in Cincinnati.