Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I hope you're ready for Week 6, because it is here and there's no stopping it. It's kicking off Thursday night with what might be my favorite coaching match of the season: Mike Macdonald vs. Sean Payton.
I mainly love this coaching matchup because Sean Payton once accused Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks of cheating, even though they weren't cheating (if you need a refresher, we've got the full details here). The two guys have apparently buried the hatchet about that, but I'll believe it when I see it.
In today's newsletter, we'll have some picks and best bets for Thursday's game, plus we'll be breaking down whether teams should be buying or selling at the trade deadline.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all of your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Seahawks at Broncos
Week 6 is starting off with the Super Bowl we almost got. If the Broncos had beaten the Patriots in the AFC title game last season, Super Bowl LX would have been Seattle vs. Denver. But that didn't happen, so we're going to have to settle for the game we're getting on Thursday.
The Broncos are banged up going into this game, especially in the secondary. CB Patrick Surtain and S Talanoa Hufanga have both been ruled out, which could make things difficult for Denver when it comes to slowing down Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Anyway, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:
- Why the Seahawks can win: With CB Patrick Surtain and S Talanoa Hufanga both out for Denver, this could set up a huge night for Smith-Njigba. Although the Broncos' defense is good, the Seahawks offense should be able to move the ball at will in this game. Not only do they have an advantage with JSN facing a depleted Broncos secondary, but Denver has also given up the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL this year, so the Seahawks should be able to run the ball. The Seahawks are 3-0 this year when they rush for at least 95 yards, and you can bet they'll do their best to get their ground game going to take some pressure off Sam Darnold. If the rushing attack is rolling and JSN is putting up big numbers, that could set up a situation where the Seahawks win big.
- Why the Broncos can win: The Broncos have a defense that can force turnovers, and if they can win the turnover battle tonight, that will likely lead to a win. One reason this could happen is that the Seahawks haven't really been taking care of the ball this season. They've turned it over nine times, which is tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. The Seahawks are also 0-2 this year when they lose the turnover battle, while the Broncos are 2-0 when they win it. Coaches always talk about winning the turnover battle, and it certainly helps, but in this game, it could mean everything. The Broncos have forced at least two turnovers in two of their past three games.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ANYTIME touchdown (+100 at DraftKings): When the Seahawks get near the end zone, Sam Darnold usually tries to put the ball in JSN's hands, so it won't be surprising if he scores tonight. Not to mention, JSN has already scored seven touchdowns through five games, and he gets to go up against a Broncos' secondary that will be missing two of its best players.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Jason Myers OVER 1.5 field goals (-133 at DraftKings): The Seahawks have played two games this season against teams that currently have a winning record, and Myers has hit at least two field goals in both games, including a FIVE field goal performance against the 49ers in Week 5. Another reason to like this prop is that Denver is the most kicker-friendly city in the NFL, which usually leads to a lot of field goals. The Broncos have played two home games this year, and in both games, the opposing kicker has topped two field goals.
If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 7-13 (2-8 on kicker props and 5-5 on all other props). After starting off 5-3, I'm now 2-10 on my last 12 props. That's clearly a sign that you should be fading me until further notice.
And now, it's time for some picks.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Jared Dubin's pick: Seahawks 24-16 over Broncos
John Breech's pick: Seahawks 27-17 over Broncos
Jordan Dajani's pick: Seahawks 23-20 over Broncos
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Seahawks 24-19 over Broncos
Prisco's pick: Seahawks 23-17 over Broncos
Yup, we're all taking the Seahawks. Last week, we all took the Cowboys over the Buccaneers in the Thursday night game, and that one totally backfired in our face, so I'm definitely interested to see what happens here.
If you want to know which way all of our experts are leaning tonight, you can check that out on our CBSSports.com picks page.
2. NFL Week 6 picks: NFC South pulls off surprising week
Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have five NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and myself — handing out picks each week. In Week 4, Prisco finished in the cellar, but he bounced back in Week 5 with a 10-4-1 showing that was the best of the week for us. I thought for sure Prisco would throw in the towel and stop making picks after his ugly Week 4, but I was wrong.
Anyway, if you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 6 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 6 picks; if you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life.
- Pete Prisco — Falcons (+3) 27-21 over Bears. From Prisco: "The Bears are coming off a horrible showing in Green Bay, in which the defense was shredded. But the Falcons lost in overtime to the Ravens, and quarterback Michael Penix was hurt. He will likely play here, and that's a good thing since he can light up the Chicago defense. Falcons win it." For the rest of Prisco's Week 6 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan — Panthers (+1.5) 23-21 over Eagles. From Sullivan: "So, we have one team extremely well rested, while the other is reeling and just came off a demoralizing international loss. Beyond the lopsided rest advantage, the Eagles just feel like a mess right now. They're bottom five in the league in points per game (18.4), yards per game (262.2) and passing yards per game (170.6) coming into Week 6. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injury, but even when they've had their full squad, it's been clunky. Conversely, Carolina's offense is top-five in the NFL in those same categories, and it looks like they'll get No. 2 wideout Jalen Coker back for this one. I like the Panthers to roll into Lincoln Financial Field and turn the heat up under Nick Sirianni's seat to a fever pitch." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 6 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jordan Dajani — Texans (+3) 21-18 over Jaguars. From Dajani: "The Texans are coming off their first win of the season against the lowly Titans. I predict they keep that momentum going and score an upset victory across the pond. DeMeco Ryans is calling defensive plays again, and C.J. Stroud is actually playing good football. He's tied for the most 20-yard completions (21) in the NFL this season. Houston is also 14-2 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 divisional games away from home." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
- Jared Dubin — Packers (-1.5) 33-28 over Cowboys. From Dubin: "The Dallas defense is just too bad for me to feel comfortable picking the Cowboys against a team that has an offensive pulse. The Packers showed last week that they are capable of throwing the ball all over the yard even if their running game can't get going. Dallas should put up points, too, because the Packers' defense is no great shakes, but I'm taking Green Bay to win here." For the rest of Dubin's Week 6 picks, be sure to click here.
- John Breech — Buccaneers (+2.5) 20-17 over Steelers. From me: "The Buccaneers defense has quietly been playing good football all season, but no one has really been paying attention due to Tampa Bay's atrocious 1-4 record. Last week, they went to Dallas and shut down the Cowboys' offense. This week, I think their defense will stymie the Steelers and open the door for the Bucs to pull off the upset." For the rest of my Week 6 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 6 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here.
3. QB power rankings: Jared Goff cracks the top three
Every week during the NFL season, we rank all 32 starting quarterbacks. The ranking is handled by Garrett Podell, and I have to say, I'm very happy with his ranking this week, so I'm going to share it with you. I probably also would have shared it even if I didn't like it, but we don't have to worry about that.
The reason I like this week's ranking is that Garrett has Jared Goff in his top three, and Goff was my preseason pick to win MVP. Was it a crazy pick? Yes, but it doesn't look so crazy now.
Here's a short explanation from Garrett of how his QB ranking works: "These rankings are fluid and designed to tell the story of each starting quarterback's respective rise and/or fall throughout the season."
Basically, this ranking isn't based on what any QB has done in the past; it's only based on what they've done this year.
After five weeks of action, let's check out the top three names on the list:
1. Brock Purdy, 49ers. After the 49ers ' 32-29 win at Seattle in Week 5, Brock Purdy (189 yards passing, two touchdowns and his first interception of the season on 19-of-29 passing) enters Week 6 as the NFL leader in touchdown passes (13), passing success rate (57.9%), expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.37) and sack rate (2.1%). He also ranks second in the league in passer rating (119.3), fourth in completion percentage (69%) and fourth in pass yards per attempt (8.4).
2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. Mahomes looks like his normal self post-ACL tear, and he is fresh off a Week 5 bye. He has the Chiefs out to a 4-0 start, and once again, no one is better when throwing outside the pocket. Mahomes still leads the league in both completions (23) and passing touchdowns (five, tied with Aaron Rodgers ) outside the pocket despite not playing last week. He also ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in both passer rating (106.2, fifth) and EPA per dropback (0.19, ninth).
3. Jared Goff, Lions. The Lions QB has 12 passing touchdowns, one behind Purdy for the league lead, and zero interceptions in 2026. That is tied for the most passing touchdowns without an interception by any quarterback through the first five games of a season in NFL history, along with Russell Wilson in 2019. His 1,485 yards passing — second in the NFL behind Matthew Stafford's 1,572 — rank as the third-most without an interception through the first five games of a season in NFL history. Goff is playing like a top-three quarterback in football entering his bye week.
Garrett ranked every starting QB in the NFL, and if you want to see his full list, you can do that here.
4. Projecting all 14 teams that will make the NFL playoffs: 49ers are looking super
The playoff projections are back! We first unveiled them after Week 1, and they'll be popping up in this newsletter every two weeks until the end of the season.
Sure, it's hard to predict who's going to make the playoffs after watching each team play just five games, so that's why we brought in our resident analytics expert, Stephen Oh. Oh simulated the rest of the season to see how things will end up playing out, and let me tell you, if his projections pan out, there is going to be a giant celebration in San Francisco come February.
With that in mind, here's what the playoff field looks like according to Oh's projections:
AFC
1. Chiefs (4-0) -- AFC West champion
2. Bills (4-1) -- AFC East champion
3. Jaguars (4-1) -- AFC South champion
4. Ravens (4-1) -- AFC North champion
5. Broncos (3-2)
6. Bengals (3-2)
7. Patriots (3-2)
AFC breakdown: When it comes to the Wild Card teams, our projection model essentially has five teams battling for three spots, with the Broncos, Bengals and Patriots getting in over the Colts and Steelers. The computer has all five of those teams finishing with a winning record, but the Colts and Steelers are both on the outside looking in at 9-8.
NFC
1. 49ers (5-0) -- NFC West champion
2. Vikings (5-0) -- NFC North champion
3. Panthers (2-2) -- NFC South champion
4. Eagles (2-3) -- NFC East champion
5. Seahawks (3-2)
6. Lions (3-2)
7. Rams (2-3)
NFC breakdown: The biggest surprise here might be the fact that the BEARS are projected to miss the postseason. After losing to the Packers in Week 5, our projection has them finishing at 9-8, which will leave them one spot out of the Wild Card. Also, there's a very real chance we could see two divisions — NFC South and NFC East — crown a champion with a losing record.
Not only did the computer project the entire playoff field, but it also picked a surprising Super Bowl winner. Spoiler alert: It was the 49ers. If you want to know who they're playing or who they beat in the playoffs, you'll have to check out my full story here.
5. NFL trade deadline buyers and sellers: Teams that could end up making a deal
Don't look now, but the NFL trade deadline (Nov. 10) is just around the corner. Between now and then, we'll be talking a lot about the deadline, and we'll continue today by looking at whether teams should be buyers or sellers.
Not only did Carter Bahns name several teams who should be buying (or selling), but he also created a list of players who might be traded. For the buyers, he came up with some names that each team should target in a trade. For the sellers, he listed the players they should get rid of.
Let's check out a few teams on his list:
BUYER: Bears
Trade targets: Khalil Mack, Josh Sweat, Daron Payne, Zach Sieler
Bahn's breakdown: In order to maximize the team's upside upon Williams' return, general manager Ryan Poles needs to bolster the defense, especially up front. The Bears rank just 20th in quarterback pressure rate and lack depth on both the edge and interior. What about a reunion with Mack? He spent four years of his prime with the Bears and clearly still has something to give with three sacks in five games this season. Perhaps they could acquire Sweat instead. They have just enough cap space to bring him in this year before his salary balloons in the final two years of his contract.
BUYER: Cowboys
Trade targets: Maxx Crosby, Alex Highsmith, Khalil Mack, Josh Sweat
Bahn's breakdown: Jerry Jones is in a trading mood already and made a splash when he acquired Joey Porter Jr. The defense still needs help, though. After they added Porter, the Cowboys could shift their focus back toward the front of the unit and continue to address the edge rusher spot, which has been a weakness ever since they shipped Micah Parsons out of town.
SELLER: Chargers
Players to deal away: Khalil Mack, Donte Jackson, Quentin Johnston, David Njoku
Bahn's breakdown: Why wait until the deadline to move on from obvious trade candidates such as Mack? The Chargers are, shockingly, going nowhere fast at 0-5 and face a grueling schedule between now and Nov. 10, so they may as well get out ahead of the market and sell before they lose even more leverage. This roster and its coaching staff might have simply run its course, because after years of coming up short in the postseason, their chances of even getting back there in 2026 are bleak at best.
Bahn came up with 10 teams that should be either buying or selling. Check out his full list here.
6. Extra points: Marvin Harrison Jr. set to play this weekend
It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. to make Texans' debut on Sunday. The former Cardinals receiver is heading to London. That's where the Texans will be playing against the Jaguars on Sunday, and Harrison is expected to make his debut. Although he was a bust in Arizona, it will be interesting to see what Harrison can do with the Texans, and that's mainly because he'll be reuniting with his former college quarterback, C.J. Stroud. With Stroud as his QB at Ohio State in 2022, Harrison went off for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns in just 13 games. If he comes close to playing at that level with Stroud in the NFL, the Texans will be feeling very good about this trade.
- Alaric Jackson's suspension gets reduced. The Rams' left tackle got hit with a two-game suspension this week for punching Bradley Chubb after the Bills' win on Monday night. After an appeal, the suspension has now been trimmed down to just one game, so Jackson will only miss this Sunday's game against the Cardinals. On Wednesday, Chubb revealed what he said that set Jackson off, and you can check out his comments here.
- NFL not planning to move Steelers-Saints game out of Paris. There has been some civil unrest in Paris over the past three weeks, but the NFL is still planning to hold its first game ever in France on Oct. 25. "As we do for every NFL game, including our international games, we work closely with local authorities and partners on all operational and security matters," the league said in a statement. "We look forward to welcoming fans to Paris later this month." If you want details on what's causing the social unrest, we've got the full story here. The Steelers and Saints are currently scheduled to face off at Stade de France in Week 7.
