Predicting the next Sam Darnold: Mac Jones, Malik Willis and five other QBs who can go from bust to champion
Who could be the next NFL quarterback to resurrect his career?
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12 min read
In an NFL season full of surprises, the Seattle Seahawks took advantage. The 2026 Super Bowl champions rode the No. 1 scoring defense to a Lombardi Trophy, while Mike Macdonald established himself as one of the best coaches in the NFL. Sam Darnold was also a major headline, as he became the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl after playing for five different teams. Once viewed as a bust, he is now a champion, and the first quarterback from that impressive 2018 class, which included Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield to reach this stage.
Some rolled their eyes when the Seahawks decided to trade Geno Smith away and sign Darnold in free agency. While Darnold did put together a 14-3 season with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, he flopped down the stretch. Even the Vikings chose J.J. McCarthy over Darnold -- and Daniel Jones -- last offseason, as questions remained if he could lead a legitimate contender. The answer ended up being yes.
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Darnold is just the second quarterback to register two straight 14-win seasons, the other being Tom Brady in 2003-04. He completed a career-high 67.7% of his passes for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and helped wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead the NFL in receiving yards (1,793) en route to Offensive Player of the Year honors. Darnold did lead the NFL in turnovers during the regular season, but rebounded to become just the second Super Bowl-winning quarterback in the last 30 seasons to not turn the ball over in the postseason, joining Drew Brees in 2009.
Who would have thought the No. 3 overall pick of the New York Jets back in 2018 would be a Super Bowl-winning quarterback? Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell once said, "Organizations fail young quarterbacks before young quarterbacks fail organizations," and that has become clear. Darnold ranked dead last in passer rating from 2018-2020, and no one shed a tear for him when he was traded to the Carolina Panthers in 2021. Eventually, Darnold found his footing in the league and proved his worth -- and he's not alone.
According to CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson, this past season featured the most wins (75), passing yards (34,167) and passing touchdowns (236) ever by first-round quarterbacks on teams that did not draft them, with players like Darnold, Mayfield and Jared Goff leading the way.
So, who is that next "bust" to reach his potential with a new team? Let's take a look.
Daniel Jones (28 years old)
The former No. 6 overall pick of the New York Giants was on an epic revenge tour in 2025 before suffering a torn Achilles in Week 14. Despite his season being cut short, Daniel Jones set career highs in completion percentage (68%), passing yards per game (238.5) and yards per attempt (8.1) in his first year with the Indianapolis Colts. He threw 19 touchdowns compared to eight interceptions, and helped Indy get off a 7-1 start before things started to fall apart.
The efficiency of Jones really stood out early, as he became just the third quarterback since 1950 to start 3-0 while averaging 9+ yards per attempt with zero turnovers. Jones is slated to be a free agent this offseason, and while it feels likely he's back with the Colts, it will be interesting to see how much money he commands.
Jones went 24-44-1 as the starter during his five seasons with the Giants. He threw a career-high 24 touchdowns as a rookie, but his best season came in 2022 when Brian Daboll got to town, as Jones went 9-6-1 while throwing for 3,205 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Giants made the playoffs that year and upset the Vikings in Minnesota. That offseason, New York had to decide what to do with Jones and star running back Saquon Barkley. The former received the multi-year extension, while the latter got the franchise tag.
It's true that Jones' decline in play led to his dismissal in New York, but so did injuries. After signing the four-year, $160 million contract, Jones missed 11 starts in 2023 due to multiple injuries, including a torn ACL, then went 2-8 in 2024 before being benched. It's clear that the Colts are a much more conducive situation for Jones, and it would have been interesting to see how Indy's season would have ended with him healthy, since the AFC was so wide open.
Mac Jones (27)
Kyle Shanahan finally got his hands on Mac Jones, who he initially wanted to take in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, it was as a backup to Brock Purdy. Jones still got action with the San Francisco 49ers in 2025, as he won five of his eight starts and completed 69.6% of his passes for 2,151 yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. Jones actually became the fourth quarterback since 1950 to start 3-0 while throwing for 800 yards and six touchdowns in his first three starts with a team, joining Matthew Stafford with the Los Angeles Rams, Kurt Warner with the Rams and Patrick Mahomes with the Kansas City Chiefs.
In an impressive Week 5 overtime victory over the rival Rams on "Thursday Night Football," Jones completed 33 of 49 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns. He did this without his top two wide receivers, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, his top tight end, George Kittle, and while fighting through a knee injury. It showed Jones could be an effective point guard and a legitimate starting quarterback as well.
Jones was selected by the New England Patriots with the No. 15 overall pick back in 2021, and it looked like he was going to be an adequate Tom Brady replacement right off the bat. The Alabama product went 10-7 as a rookie, got the Patriots back to the playoffs and made the Pro Bowl. However, Jones went on to win just eight of his next 25 starts with the Patriots.
He lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and had to deal with that weird combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge as his offensive coaches in Year 2. Then Jones went 2-9 in 2023 before being benched for the remainder of the season, and was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2024. Jones went 2-5 as the starter in Jacksonville, but did get the most out of Brian Thomas Jr., who had a historic rookie season with 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. As a free agent last offseason, Jones found his way to San Francisco.
What could stop Jones from becoming the next Sam Darnold immediately is the fact that he signed a two-year deal with the 49ers. He could be a trade target this offseason, but an interested team may have to blow John Lynch and Shanahan away with the compensation. Whether it's this year or next, Jones is someone to keep an eye on.
Malik Willis (26)
Malik Willis is the most interesting quarterback to watch this offseason. The Liberty product grabbed headlines in Week 17, when he stepped in for an injured Jordan Love and completed 18 of 21 passes for 288 yards, one touchdown, and led the Green Bay Packers in rushing with 60 yards and two more touchdowns during a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. According to CBS Sports Research, Willis became the first quarterback to ever complete 85% of his passes while averaging 13 yards per attempt with 60 yards rushing. His 13.7 yards per attempt were the most by a quarterback with 50 rushing yards in a game in the past 50 seasons. Now, he's a free agent looking for a new deal.
It wasn't just one game where Willis shined, either. He went 2-0 for the Packers immediately after they traded the Tennessee Titans a seventh-round pick for him during roster cutdown day in 2024. Love was injured in the season opener that year, and Willis stepped in to lead the Packers to a win over the Colts in Week 2. Willis then had the opportunity to start against his former team, the Titans, in Nashville. He led the Packers to a 30-14 victory while throwing for 202 yards, one touchdown, and adding 73 yards and another score on the ground! Willis led the NFL in both yards per attempt (9.8) and yards per rush (9.5) over those two weeks.
Willis started just three games during his first two years with the Titans, and it never felt like the organization trusted him to throw the ball. He averaged 16.3 passing attempts in those three starts, and never crossed 100 yards passing. When he was traded to Green Bay and met Matt Lafleur, Willis automatically looked like a different player. He's earned the opportunity to at least battle for a starting job.
Zach Wilson (26)
How about another former Jet to be the next Sam Darnold? The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft is still looking for his opportunity to see the field. Zach Wilson served as the Denver Broncos' backup quarterback in 2024 and then signed with the Miami Dolphins in 2025. While Tua Tagovailoa was benched this past season, Miami opted to put rookie Quinn Ewers under center instead of Wilson.
Wilson went 12-21 during his time with the Jets, and ranked last in the NFL in completion percentage (57%), TD-INT ratio (23-25) and passer rating (73.2) from 2021-23. He really was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL during that timeframe, but it wasn't because of a lack of talent. Wilson was uncomfortable in the pocket, struggled to go through progressions, his decision-making left a lot to be desired and he was known to miss layups. The game was too fast for him, and he would have benefited from sitting and learning behind a veteran. The Jets tried that with Aaron Rodgers in 2023, but after he tore his Achilles in the season opener, New York made the puzzling decision to ride the Wilson rollercoaster again, expecting different results.
What Wilson does have going for him is the kind of elite arm talent some quarterbacks wish they had. He can fling it downfield with ease and get the ball out via all different kinds of arm angles. If he can learn how to harness that power and the game slows down for him, Wilson is a quarterback who can rewrite his story.
Anthony Richardson (23)
Anthony Richardson is a prime example of how these NFL evaluators put way too much stock into the underwear olympics we call the "combine." The Florida product ranked first among all quarterbacks at the 2023 combine in height at 6-4 1/4, in the 40-yard dash (4.43), and registered the best vertical (40.5") and broad jump (10'9") as well. Richardson's 4.43 40-yard dash was actually the second-fastest time recorded by a first-round quarterback at the NFL Combine since 2006, per ESPN.
The problem was that Richardson didn't have much experience playing quarterback. He was tied with Mitch Trubisky in having the fewest college starts by a first-round pick since 2000, with 13, and had the worst career completion percentage (55%) for a first-round pick since Jake Locker in 2011. That didn't stop the Colts from taking him No. 4 overall in 2023. Richardson went 2-2 as a rookie before a shoulder injury knocked him out for the remainder of the year. He threw for 577 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in those four games, and rushed for four touchdowns. For whatever reason, there was considerable optimism surrounding Richardson entering his second NFL season, but that optimism was unfounded.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense taunted Richardson during joint practices in 2024, asking if all he did was run. The Colts started 2-1 that year before Richardson injured his hip against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which angered Mike Tomlin because he would rather have his defense play Richardson than backup Joe Flacco. Richardson returned three weeks later, but then rubbed his team the wrong way when he took himself out of the game vs. the rival Houston Texans because he needed a break. That led to Richardson being briefly benched for his NFL-worst 44.4% completion percentage.
That offseason, the Colts brought in Daniel Jones to battle Richardson, but the young quarterback missed minicamp due to another shoulder injury. Jones, of course, won the quarterback battle and came in and immediately had more success than Richardson.
There's no doubt that Richardson is an athletic specimen who resembles Cam Newton. He's an extremely dangerous runner and possesses a bazooka for a right arm. But, as we've learned, there's a lot more that goes into quarterbacking than just being athletic. Richardson is only 23 years old, so he has time to meet those Newton-like expectations. However, it's fair to say he's prone to injuries, and availability is the best ability.
Will Levis (26)
NFL fans will remember Will Levis as the "Mayo man" who effortlessly created memes with weekly mind-boggling turnovers, but there was a time when Levis inspired optimism in Nashville. He went 3-6 as the starter in 2023 and registered a couple of notable wins. He tied an NFL record by throwing four touchdowns in his professional debut, which was an upset victory over the Atlanta Falcons, then helped pull off one of the most improbable comebacks over the past two decades against the Dolphins while throwing for a career-high 327 yards.
Levis entered 2024 as the unquestioned starter, as the Titans front office hired an offensive-minded coach to develop him, and attempted to surround him with talent -- dropping over $228 million in free agency. Tennessee signed center Lloyd Cushenberry to a historic contract, secured one of the top free-agent wideouts in Calvin Ridley to pair with DeAndre Hopkins, added a veteran slot receiver in Tyler Boyd and replaced franchise legend Derrick Henry with Tony Pollard. Whatever optimism that existed in the Music City was short-lived, as the Titans started 1-6 on the way to a 3-14 final record that came with the No. 1 overall pick.
Levis registered the highest percentage of plays with a sack, fumble or interception (16.3%) since JaMarcus Russell in 2009. It was a disaster, but questions remain as to why he regressed under the offensive mind specifically brought in to help him. Why was Levis more comfortable playing quarterback as a rookie? It's hard to answer that. Everything about the Brian Callahan era was a nightmare.
Levis would benefit from a change of scenery with Cam Ward solidified as QB1, and he's a trade candidate that would only require a Day 3 pick to acquire. Like Zach Wilson, Levis has this massive arm that could be quite a weapon when the game slows down for him. It would be interesting to see the Kentucky kid land with a Shanahan, O'Connell or Sean McVay.
Trey Lance (25)
Despite playing just 19 games at North Dakota State, the 49ers selected Trey Lance No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He made four total starts for the franchise, winning two, before Brock Purdy took ahold of the job and didn't let go.
Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys in 2023, and spent two seasons behind Dak Prescott before signing with the Los Angeles Chargers last offseason. He beat out Taylor Heinicke and DJ Uiagalelei for the Chargers' backup job, completing 56.1% of his passes for 334 yards, two touchdowns and zero turnovers in four preseason games. It was just the preseason, but it did look like Lance had turned a corner. He received one start in 2025, which was the regular-season finale against the Broncos. In a 19-3 loss, Lance completed 20 of 44 passes for 136 yards and one interception.
Over five NFL seasons, Lance has played in just 16 games with six starts (2-4). He is the least-experienced quarterback on this list despite being drafted five years ago, which potentially makes him the biggest long shot to be the next Sam Darnold.
