Now that the first month of the 2026 regular season is over and done, you might have an urge to go look at the standings throughout the league to see where everyone stacks up. When you do, let me be the first to tell you that you don't need to clean your glasses and your eyes aren't deceiving you. There are some surprising division leaders through the first four weeks.
I mean, if you had the Cleveland Browns atop the AFC North at any point this year, I would like to ask you a few questions. Specifically, I'd like you to tell me this week's winning lottery numbers, since you clearly can see the future. Meanwhile, the New York Giants are another club that is remarkably leading it's division, the NFC East. That wouldn't be surprising if Jaxson Dart was still their starting quarterback, but it certainly is after he went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, which has thrust Jameis Winston under center.
Here, we're going to sift through these leaders and determine which have staying power and which are merely visiting the top spot before making the trek down. To do that, we'll rank all eight first-place teams from the least vulnerable to losing their spot (No. 8) down to the most vulnerable (No. 1).
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Odds to win AFC South: -250
Jacksonville is sitting pretty atop the AFC South, and the betting odds support that. The Jaguars are currently the biggest favorite to win their division in the entire NFL, and it's easy to see why. While there are still some undefeated teams across the league, the Jaguars have the makings of a true threat to come out of the AFC. They just went into Cincinnati and beat the Bengals, which continues a white-hot run that dates back to last season. Over its past 12 regular-season games, Jacksonville is 11-1, averaging 31.1 points and allowing just 14.1.
As much as this is a credit to Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence forming quite the head coach-QB pairing, it also speaks to the lackluster nature of the rest of the division. Both the Texans and Titans are 0-4 to begin the year. Houston's offensive line continues to disappoint, and its defense has even regressed a bit from last season, so it doesn't appear to be a legitimate threat. Neither does Tennessee, as it appears destined to have another top-five pick at the NFL Draft. The most competitive division rival appears to be the Colts at 2-2, but even they don't strike fear into true playoff contenders. Daniel Jones doesn't look like the same quarterback he was in the first half of last year before his Achilles injury, and the defense is giving up the second-most total yards in the NFL through four weeks.
7. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Odds to win AFC West: -225
Kansas City has jumped right back into being one of the elite teams in the AFC, with Patrick Mahomes largely not skipping a beat in his return from a torn ACL and LCL last season. The free-agent addition of Kenneth Walker III has also given the offense some much-needed explosiveness and has been a key catalyst for the 4-0 start to the season. K.C. is another division leader that is becoming an overwhelming favorite to keep its grip on the crown, especially after taking down the previously undefeated Raiders in Week 3.
While Las Vegas began the year 3-0 and is building a solid foundation under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak, it still feels a year or two away from truly making a push in the division. As for the Denver Broncos, they, in theory, are the biggest challenger to the Chiefs after making the AFC Championship Game last season. However, the offense has been plagued by slow starts throughout the first month, and Bo Nix ranks 19th out of 24 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. For reference, Mahomes ranks eighth. Even the Denver defense, which is supposed to be the team's strength, ranks 20th in the league in yards allowed per play (5.6). Meanwhile, the Chargers at 0-4 are a virtual non-factor.
6. San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
Odds to win NFC West: +100
San Francisco plays in the toughest division in the NFL, so putting it this low in terms of being vulnerable should tell you how good it has been through four weeks. Yes, the 49ers will have to fend off the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the still-current betting favorite to win Super Bowl LXI in the Rams, but they have the nucleus to do it.
The Niners already beat the Rams in a head-to-head in Australia in the season opener and have jumped out to a 4-0 record. Seattle is right behind at 3-1, and these two square off against one another in Week 5, so either San Francisco can post two marquee division wins over the first five weeks or find itself momentarily looking up at the Seahawks due to the tiebreaker.
When you look at the advanced metrics with the 49ers, it's hard not to have confidence in them. Offensively, they've run the lowest percentage of plays that lose yards at 2.2% (excluding kneels) by any team through four games since 2000. Defensively, they're giving up the lowest percentage of explosive plays (3.5%) by any team through four games since 2000. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy has yet to be sacked.
If they can keep this level of play up (or even keep it relatively close to these figures), they should win the requisite games to win the NFC West.
5. Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Odds to win AFC East: -215
Buffalo has better odds than the 49ers to win the division, but it's hard to ignore the fact that it just lost a pivotal early-season matchup to the Patriots in Week 4. Despite New England's rocky start, that win brought it to 2-2 on the season and within striking range of Buffalo, especially after securing the first head-to-head of the season on the road. The Patriots' schedule also softens up over the next month-plus, so Buffalo will need to be careful not to slip up. That puts an ever greater emphasis on what is slated to be a tough matchup in Week 5 as the Bills travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams on Monday night.
Another element that the Bills shouldn't ignore is that they'll be on the road for a large portion of the second half of the season, specifically down the final stretch. Of their final six games, four will be on the road. While trips to New England and Denver (on Christmas) could be daunting, the Packers currently don't look like a major threat, and the other road trip is to Miami to face a Dolphins team that'll likely be more interested in draft position than anything else.
As for the Jets, they've been pesky through the first few weeks of the season, but they don't pose a real threat to Buffalo in the division race, so it's really only New England the Bills need to concern themselves with.
4. Carolina Panthers (2-2)
Odds to win NFC South: +160
Carolina is technically knotted up with the Falcons for the NFC South lead, but currently edges them out thanks to the head-to-head victory from Week 2. The Panthers have flashed their potential at times this season, particularly with Bryce Young. The former No. 1 overall pick leads the NFL in passing yards this season, and his nine passing touchdowns are the most through the first four games of a season in franchise history.
They'll be on the bye in Week 5, so the next time they take the field will be in Week 6 when they travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. They'll look to get over .500 for the first time this season and will have a solid rest advantage. Not only will Carolina be coming off its bye, but the Eagles will also be returning from an international game in London against the Jaguars in Week 5.
While Carolina's offense has flashed, its defense still has some questions, allowing the fourth-most total yards per game in the NFL. It's also the seventh-worst red-zone defense (72.7%) in the league. The biggest challenger for the division crown will likely be the Falcons. That initial victory over Atlanta came with Cooper Rush at quarterback for the Falcons. With Michael Penix Jr. back, the Falcons are 2-0 and averaging 40 points per game. They'll come back down to earth in some capacity, but they could be a thorn in their side.
New Orleans has talent, but it is 1-3 through the first month and was just walloped by the Falcons, so it still has work to do before we truly consider it a threat to the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 0-4 and Baker Mayfield is sidelined with a thumb injury.
The Panthers are tied for the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, so there is a path to repeating as NFC South champions, but they'll need to keep an eye on the Falcons.
3. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Odds to win NFC North: +125
The Vikings are surprisingly one of just three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. That can be credited to the stellar play on the defensive side of the ball, as they are allowing just 262.8 total yards per game. That's the third-fewest allowed during a 4-0 start to a season by any team since 1940. They remained undefeated even as their starting quarterback, Kyler Murray, missed time due to a concussion. They have since gotten Murray back, and that raises concerns about their staying power at the top of the division. The veteran doesn't look like a great fit in Kevin O'Connell's offense. Over his past two starts, he has completed 63.6% of his passes, averaging 207.5 passing yards per game, one touchdown and one interception. He's also rushed for 33 yards on eight total attempts. That's fine, but it's not out of this world either, as he has a passer rating of just 80.1.
At some point, the defense isn't going to be able to simply shut down their opponents en route to a win. It'll have to be the offense living up to its promise of being a high-powered unit with a capable quarterback under center. I'm not totally confident they'll answer the bell.
Moreover, I think the Chicago Bears are the class of this division and are hot on the heels of Minnesota at 3-1. Yes, the Vikings have the head-to-head tiebreaker currently, thanks to a Week 2 win, but that was the game where Chicago lost Caleb Williams due to a hamstring injury. The Bears have stayed afloat with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent at quarterback, owning a 2-0 record over the past two weeks, and Williams should be back on the field soon.
While the Lions and Packers are both 2-2 and have clear weaknesses, there is the possibility that one or both rebound. For Detroit, it hopes to get reinforcements for a depleted secondary with safety Brian Branch on the mend and possibly fellow safety Kerby Joseph. With the Packers, star pass rusher Micah Parsons could return in the coming weeks as well, and that could change their defense overnight. Those are wild cards that could flip the division that Minnesota will need to monitor on top of Chicago.
2. New York Giants (3-1)
Odds to win NFC East: +500
New York was a sleeper candidate to win the NFC East coming into the season after John Harbaugh was hired as head coach and with Jaxson Dart entering Year 2. After defeating the Dallas Cowboys in the season opener, it looked as if the Giants would be well on their way. However, with Dart going down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, it has changed the complexion of the season. Jameis Winston has been able to keep them afloat over the past two weeks, but those wins were against the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals, who are expected to have some of the worst records in the league by season's end.
New York's schedule isn't daunting, but with a backup quarterback like Winston (or J.J. McCarthy), no game is guaranteed, which opens the doors for division rivals. Dallas is currently the betting favorite to win the division at +134 and does feel like the most complete team in the NFC East at the moment. The offense is tied for the second-highest scoring unit in the league, averaging 30.5 points per game. The Cowboys are also the fourth-best on third down (51.02%) and the third-best in the league in the red zone (81.25%) through the first month. Their defense is still a major question, but the addition of corner Joey Poerter Jr. should help improve the secondary.
After Dallas, the Eagles possess the best odds to win the NFC East at +140. Philadelphia has been plagued by injuries as DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, Quinyon Mitchell, and Dallas Goedert have all been dinged up at times. That said, if it can get healthy, it arguably has the most talent of any team in the division. With Washington, it needs to focus on getting Jayden Daniels (left elbow) healthy. If he can return and improve the 1-3 record, then we can look at the Commanders as a threat, but we're still a ways away from that.
1. Cleveland Browns (3-1)
Odds to win AFC North: +1100
After Cleveland lost by 24 points to the Jaguars in Week 1, it looked like the Browns would be in for a dreadful season. However, they've since won three straight, which included a massive win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 4. That has them in first place in the AFC North after the first month, but the oddsmakers aren't exactly buying this resurgence. Cleveland is +1100 to win the AFC North, which is by far the longest among the current division leaders. The Ravens are -170, while Cincinnati is +235. The only team Cleveland is ahead of is the Steelers, who are +1150 to win the division.
Baltimore and Cincinnati, on paper, are both more talented than the Browns and have an immensely higher ceiling at quarterback. While Deshaun Watson has played well during this winning streak, his off-target rate is the seventh-highest among 24 qualified quarterbacks, and his four dropped-interception rate leads the league. With both games against the Ravens and Bengals still upcoming on the schedule, this early-season run by Cleveland could be short-lived.
