Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It's been a wild 24 hours in Buffalo, and after Wednesday's moves, I'll be honest, I'm not sure if the Bills even have a team anymore. The Bills, who are way OVER the salary cap, have less than a week to get under it, and they started that process Wednesday by cutting everyone on their roster. OK, so it wasn't everyone, but it kind of felt that way.
We'll be breaking down all of the Bills' moves in today's newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look at the 10 WORST trades in NFL history.
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1. 10 worst player trades in NFL history
Now that the Broncos have made the decision to get rid of Russell Wilson after just two seasons, it's safe to say that they made ONE of the worst trades in NFL history, but was it the worst one EVER? To answer that question, we had Jordan Dajani rank every bad trade that's ever been made in NFL history.
There was really only one rule here: Draft day trades and trades involving draft picks on both sides weren't considered, so a deal like the one the 49ers made to trade up for Trey Lance doesn't make our list.
With that in mind, here are the five worst trades on Jordan's list:
- 1. Vikings trade for Hershel Walker. "It was the largest trade in NFL history, and if you're Minnesota, probably the worst. It's a lot to go through, but Dallas received three first-rounders from Minnesota, three second-round picks and then a sixth and a third. Dallas also gave up two third-round picks and a 10th-round pick, but added four players, including Walker, on top of all that."
- 2. Broncos trade for Russell Wilson. Just in case you don't remember the details, here's a quick refresh: In March 2022, the Broncos sent the Seahawks a 2022 first-round pick, a 2022 second-round pick, a 2022 fifth-round pick, a 2023 first-round pick, a 2023 second-round pick, plus tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and quarterback Drew Lock in exchange for Wilson and a 2022 fourth-round pick. Yikes.
- 3. Packers trade for John Hadl. "After watching Hadl go 15-4 with the Rams, the Packers traded for him in the middle of the 1974 season, sending L.A. first and second round picks in 1975 and 1976, plus a third-rounder in 1975. This was a 34-year-old quarterback by the way. Hadl played just 22 games for Green Bay, going 7-12 as the starter."
- 4. Falcons trade for Jeff George. "In March 1994, the Falcons sent Indy a first-round pick, third-round pick, a conditional future first-round pick and a third for George (That conditional selection turned into Marvin Harrison by the way) As for George, he went 7-9 with Atlanta in 1994, then 9-7 in 1995 -- a season which did include a playoff berth. However, the next season in 1996, George got into a very public argument with Falcons head coach June Jones, and was suspended. He never played for the Falcons again."
- 5. Browns trade for Deshaun Watson. "I'm not going to rank this up there with the Russell Wilson trade just yet, but it might soon. The Watson acquisition clearly hasn't paid off."
If you want to see the full list of 10 trades -- and trust me, you do -- be sure to click here.
2. Bills turn their roster upside down: Details on Buffalo's wild day
The award for craziest day of the offseason so far definitely goes to the Buffalo Bills, who turned their roster upside down Wednesday in an effort to get under the salary cap. Going into Wednesday, the Bills were roughly $40 million OVER the cap, which isn't a huge issue right now, but it will be next week. When the league year starts March 13, every team has to be cap compliant.
The Bills picked up a good chunk of cap space by making multiple moves over the past 36 hours.
- Several key players get cut. The Bills said goodbye to All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White along with safety Jordan Poyer and center Mitch Morse. Besides those three starters, the team also released defensive back Siran Neal, receiver/returner Deonte Harty and running back Nyheim Hines. The release of White will save the Bills $10.2 million, but he'll be designated a post-June 1 cut, which means they won't see that savings for almost three months. As for the other five cuts, those moves will free up nearly $26 million in immediate cap space.
- Von Miller agrees to a re-worked contract. The biggest surprise of the day might have been that Miller agreed to take a pay cut. Miller was set to have a base salary of $17.145 million for 2024, but that's now been trimmed down to $8.855 million and Bills will pick up $8.645 million in cap space. The team also restructured Rasul Douglas' contract in a move that freed up $2.5 million.
- Bills also spent some money by signing three players. The Bills took some of their savings and spent it immediately. Not only did they sign Mitchell Trubisky to a two-year, $5.25 million deal, but they also gave safety Taylor Rapp a new three-year, $14.5 million deal. Oh, and they also signed punter Matt Haack to a one-year deal while giving offensive lineman David Edwards a two-year, $6 million deal.
It was a busy day in Buffalo, and if you want ALL of the details, be sure to click here.
3. NFC matchmaker: One free agent that makes sense for each NFC team
Although the start of free agency is less than ONE WEEK away, we decided that we don't want to wait that long to see where everyone is going to end up, so we had Jared Dubin make some predictions for us.
Dubin went through every team in the NFC and came up with one free agent who they should sign, so let's take a look at a few of the names on his list.
- 49ers: DL Calais Campbell. "The Niners love nothing more than signing flexible veteran defensive linemen and getting the best out of them. Campbell can still play on both the edge and the interior, and joining a Super Bowl contender could give him an opportunity to put a feather in the cap of his eventual Hall of Fame case."
- Commanders: OT Jonah Williams. "Washington's offensive line is in really rough shape, and after cutting ties with Charles Leno Jr., the Commies need a new left tackle. Williams played better on the left side of the line before the Bengals moved him over to the right in the wake of last offseason's Orlando Brown signing, and Washington could use a long-term answer at that spot."
- Seahawks: OLB Jadeveon Clowney. "New Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald got the best out of Clowney last season in Baltimore, and you can never have too many flexible edge players."
You can read Dubin's full list here, and just in case you're wondering, we will be doing an AFC matchmaker tomorrow.
4. Franchise tag predictions: How the season will go for each player who got tagged
There were a total of eight franchise tags handed out this week, and now that each player has been tagged, three things could still happen with each guy: They could sign a long-term deal, they could end up playing on the tag or they could be traded before the start of the 2024 season.
Will Brinson decided to make a prediction about what's going to happen with each player, and he actually has TWO TRADES going down. Let's take a look at his prognostications.
- OLB Brian Burns -- Panthers trade him. "The Panthers really mangled this one, didn't they? Drafting Brian Burns was great! He's a really good player. But despite rebuilding, they reportedly turned down two first-round picks for him when the Rams were pursuing him, they jammed him in a defense that doesn't really work for him last year, and now they have to pay him $24 million for one year. Burns, still just 24 years old, is a blue-chip player. But he doesn't really fit the Panthers' current rebuild timeline, or their defense... Carolina is just floating in a maw here and would be best served by trying to find someone who will give up a mid-to-late first-round pick in this year's draft for a premium edge rusher who is younger than some of the guys in this class."
- WR Tee Higgins -- One and done with Bengals. "The Bengals don't treat the tag as a good faith negotiation to keep talent in-house; they view it as an extra year of control before letting a player leave (like they did with Jessie Bates and A.J. Green). I would expect you see an early Bengals wide receiver pick in the draft this year as a result."
- WR Michael Pittman Jr. -- gets long-term deal done with Colts. "The Colts took Anthony Richardson fourth overall last year and made him their franchise quarterback. Without Pittman this wideout group gets real thin, real quick. Josh Downs is an awesome slot receiver and a great compliment to a guy like Pittman... I think Pittman, who has not played with a consistent QB situation but also has just 15 receiving touchdowns in four years, ends up inking a deal."
You can check out Brinson's five other franchise tag predictions here.
5. Broncos release Justin Simmons: Free agency is going to be loaded with safeties
If your favorite team is looking to add a safety this offseason, then they're going to be in a good spot this year because this year's free agency class is loaded at the position. The class was already deep, and it got even deeper Thursday when the Broncos decided to release All-Pro Justin Simmons in a move that will save them $14.5 million in salary cap space.
With Simmons now set to hit free agency, here's a quick look at some of the safeties who will be available this year (we're going to list them alphabetically along with the team they played for last season):
Jamal Adams (Seahawks)
Julian Blackmon (Colts)
Kevin Byard (Eagles)
Jeremy Chinn (Panthers)
Kamren Curl (Commanders)
Quandre Diggs (Seahawks)
DeShon Elliott (Dolphins)
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Lions)
Tashaun Gipson (49ers)
Rudy Ford (Packers)
Micah Hyde (Bills)
Eddie Jackson (Bears)
Rayshawn Jenkins (Jaguars)
Xavier McKinney (Giants)
Jordan Poyer (Bills)
Justin Simmons (Broncos)
Geno Stone (Ravens)
Tracy Walker (Lions)
K'Von Wallace (Titans)
Jordan Whitehead (Jets)
We have to stop this list somewhere, so we're going to stop it at 20, but I think you get the point. There are more than a dozen starting-caliber safeties here, which makes this one of two positions -- along with running back -- that are absolutely loaded heading into free agency. CBS Sports lead NFL insider Jonathan Jones took a look at the suddenly fruitful safety market, which you can read here.
The Packers, Eagles, Dolphins, Bills, Bears, Texans, Rams, Bills and Jets are some of the teams that will almost definitely be in the market for a safety, so those will certainly be teams to watch when free agency starts next week.
6. Extra points: Joe Flacco wants to stay in Cleveland
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Flacco wants to return to the Browns. After a pretty successful run to finish the season in Cleveland, Joe Flacco has decided that he wants to stay with the Browns. The 39-year-old, who has no plans of retiring, made his preference known during a recent interview on SiriusXM NFL Radio. "All things equal, Cleveland is definitely the place that I would feel the best about," Flacco said, via NFL.com.
- Tony Pollard open to re-signing with Cowboys. Although Pollard is set to hit free agency, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be leaving Dallas. According to the Dallas Morning News, Pollard is open to re-signing with the Cowboys. We took a look at a few possible landing spots for Pollard, and you can check those out here.
- Eagles set to release Avonte Maddox. The Eagles made a move in their secondary Wednesday by releasing Maddox, who had been with the team since 2018. Maddox has only played in a total of 13 games over the past two seasons due to injuries. According to ESPN, the Eagles are open to a reunion, but if that happens, it will almost certainly come at a price that's more to their liking. Maddox was scheduled to have a $9.6 million cap hit for 2024.
- Commanders sign Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end is headed to Washington after signing a one-year deal with the Commanders that's worth up to $5 million. The move will reunite Ertz with Kliff Kingsbury. The Commanders new offensive coordinator spent two seasons as Ertz's head coach in Arizona.
- Texans kicker gets huge three-year deal. Ka'imi Fairbairn was one of the best kickers in the NFL last year, and the Texans have rewarded him with a three-year, $15.9 million deal. His average annual value of $5.3 million per season makes him the third-highest paid kicker in the NFL.
- 'Good Morning Football' going dark at end of March. If you watch GMF, you're going to need a new football-related morning show at the end of the month. The show is moving its production from New York City to Los Angeles this year, and because of that, it will be going dark starting March 29. The show will then "relaunch later in the summer or preseason," according to an NFL statement to Pro Football Talk.
