1. And then there were seven unbeatens: Last year there were three undefeated teams heading into Week 4 -- and all three lost their fourth game. None of the undefeated teams won their division last year and only two of them made the playoffs. The Patriots have a bye, but six teams will be challenged to stay undefeated. I am taking all six -- Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and Arizona -- to win this week.
History says it’s not going to happen. When it comes to 4-0, check the recent history:
- 2014: 0
- 2013: 5
- 2012: 3
- 2011: 2
- 2010: 0
That’s an average of two undefeated teams at the four-game mark. So the question is which teams are getting their first loss?
2. Backup quarterbacks should stay loose: Last week three backup QBs played and went 0-3 -- Brandon Weeden, Luke McCown and Jimmy Clausen. With Michael Vick starting (and losing) Thursday night, up to four (maybe more) backup QBs could be see action in Week 4. While Sean Payton says the Saints' plan right now is to start Drew Brees against the Cowboys, Andrew Luck's chances of playing don't look so good at the moment. So, stay tuned -- and stay loose, backups.
3. Cashing in on college free agents: Seattle is back on track after a shutout win last week. Now the Seahawks face the 0-3 Lions on Monday night. Have you ever really studied the Seahawks' roster? I talked to coach Pete Carroll about his roster and he was quick to say undrafted rookie running back Thomas Rawls would play an important role this week if Marshawn Lynch can’t go with his injury issues. Rawls is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Seahawks' ability to find good players after the draft. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Garry Gilliam, Alvin Bailey and Cooper Helfet are all factors on offense. Michael Morgan, Brock Coyle, DeShawn Shead are making an impact on the defensive side. How many teams -- that are Super Bowl contenders year after year, by the way -- have nine college free agents on their roster?
4. Punt coverage even bigger than missed extra points: Granted, missed extra points got Randy Bullock fired in Houston this week and some coaches like Mike Tomlin have been exercising their rights to go for two points. But there is a bigger issue right now, and that’s punt coverage. Panthers coach Ron Rivera told me the biggest problem is that teams are out-kicking the coverage. Right now there have been six punt returns for touchdowns. In the past two years there were only 13 punt returns for touchdowns all season. Teams are halfway to that number in three weeks and the return yardage is up to 10.3 yards, compared to 8.9 last year.
5. Rodgers isn't always this good: Aaron Rodgers is almost perfect at home since 2012 with a 15-1 record and zero interceptions, but he’s on the road this week. Since 2012, Rodgers is 9-7 on the road with 11 interceptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now an 11-6 starter in September for his career but now we're into October and his career record is 6-16. No matter who the QB is in New Orleans, the team is 0-6 at home in their last six home games and the offensive line has given up 15 sacks in their last four home games dating back to last year. Tampa Bay has one rushing touchdown in their last six games. Colin Kaepernick is 3-0 against the Packers with six passing touchdowns and 30 runs for 301 yards and two touchdowns. Josh McCown is 4-19 on the road as a starter. Peyton Manning is 23-2 at home with 70 touchdown passes. Eli Manning is 6-11 on the road since 2013 with 39 sacks.
6. More QB changes to come? I’m starting to wonder how long Josh McCown stays under center in Cleveland? If Ryan Fitzpatrick can’t get it done this week, the rumblings and talk will get loud in New York. Finally, I wonder what happens with Kirk Cousins or Sam Bradford after the Philadelphia-Washington game this week -- for the losing QB, that is.
And some notable nuggets for some of Week 4's games:
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New York (2-1) at Miami (1-2) in London
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (CBS, CBSSports.com Live Stream)
- Brandon Marshall is on pace for 124 carries and 1,456 yards, both would be Jets franchise records
- Ryan Fitzpatrick has 5 INTs in 116 pass attempts
- The Dolphins defense has 2 INTs in three games
- The Dolphins defense has one sack in three games
- The Dolphins have not scored a rushing TD this season
- Ryan Tannehill has thrown 5 INTs in 127 pass attempts
- WR Rishard Matthews is averaging 16.4 yards per reception
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Houston (1-2) at Atlanta (3-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Julio Jones has 34 catches for 440 yards and four TDs through three games
- The Texans are giving up 224 passing yards per game (12th in NFL)
- Alfred Blue gained 139 yards on 31 carries in Week 3
- The Falcons have held opponents to 95.7 rushing yards per game
- Ryan Mallet has completed 53.6 percent of his passes (5.2 yards per attempt)
- Devonta Freeman rushed for 141 yards on 30 carries in Week 3
- The Texans are allowing 108.7 rushing yards per game (19th in NFL)
- Roddy White has not had a reception in two straight games
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New York (1-2) at Buffalo (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
- The Giants have a +5 turnover ratio through three games
- Eli Manning has completed 64.8 percent of his passes (7.1 yards per attempt)
- The Bills pass defense is allowing 326.7 yards per game (31st in NFL)
- Rashad Jennings is averaging 2.9 yards per carry on 33 attempts
- The Bills run D is holding opponents to a league-low 74 yards per game
- The Bills are scoring 33.3 points per game (3rd in NFL)
- Tyrod Taylor has thrown 7 TDs on 78 pass attempts
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Oakland (2-1) at Chicago (0-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- The Raiders won on the road last week for the first time in 12 games
- Amari Cooper has two straight games with at least 100-yards (first since Randy Moss in 2005)
- The Bears pass defense is limiting opponents to 195.3 yards per game
- Chicago is giving up a league-high 35 points per game
- David Carr has thrown one INT in 90 pass attempts
- RB Latavius Murray is averaging 4.8 yards on 52 carries
- Jimmy Clausen has completed 57.5 percent of his passes
- Matt Forte is averaging 4.7 yards per carry on 59 attempts
- Raiders are holding opponents to 91.7 rushing yards per game
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Kansas City (1-2) at Cincinnati (3-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Bengals are looking to start 4-0 for the first time since 2005
- Andy Dalton is completing 66.3 percent of his passes (eight TDs, one INT)
- Giovanni Bernard is averaging 5.7 yards on 41 carries
- Chiefs are holding opponents to 94 rushing yards per game
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Jacksonville (1-2) at Indianapolis (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
- The Jags allowed a franchise-worst 51 points to the Patriots last week
- Jacksonville allowed the Patriots to convert 11-of-14 third downs last week
- The Colts have converted 18 of 40 third down attempts this season
- Jacksonville hasn’t scored a rushing TD this season
- Frank Gore averaged 6.1 yards per carry in Week 3 with two rushing TDs
- The Jags run defense is allowing 90.7 yards per game
- The Colts are 0 for 2 on FGs through the first three games
- Indianapolis has a-7 turnover ratio
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Carolina (3-0) at Tampa Bay (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Carolina has +4 turnover ratio
- Jonathan Stewart is averaging 3.5 yards per carry on 49 attempts
- Panther defense has 4 INT’s through three games
- Panthers are holding opponents to 75.7 rushing yards per game
- Bucs converted 1-of-12 third downs last week
- Jameis Winston has thrown for over 200 yards in each games
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Philadelphia (1-2) at Washington (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Ryan Matthews rushed for 108 yards on 25 carries against the Jets
- The Redskins run defense has held opponents to 75 yards per game
- The Eagles were 0-for-7 on third downs in the second half last week
- The Eagles defense has not allowed a rushing TD this season
- Philadelphia is averaging 24:06 time of possession
- Kirk Cousins is 0-8 in games in which he has thrown at least two INTs
- Washington has a -5 turnover ratio
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Cleveland (1-2) at San Diego (1-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
- The Browns have given up six passing TDs through the first three games
- Opposing QBs have posted a 102.9 rating against Cleveland
- The Browns have allowed 10 sacks on their QBs in 96 pass attempts
- Travis Benjamin is averaging 24.9 yards on his 10 receptions
- The Chargers have registered one sack through three games
- Philip Rivers is completing 74.5 percent of his passes
- Melvin Gordon is averaging 4.3 yards on 44 attempts
- The Browns run defense is allowing a league-high 158.3 yards per game
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St. Louis (1-2) at Arizona (3-0)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
- The Cardinals are 3-0 for the second consecutive season
- The Rams are 4-for-22 on third downs over the last two games
- The Rams defense has committed 13 sacks through three games
- Arizona leads the league in points, with 126
- Six different Arizona players have an INT this season
- Larry Fitzgerald has 5 TDs through three games
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Minnesota (2-1) at Denver (3-0)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Vikings sacked Philip Rivers four times in Week 3
- Broncos have allowed eight sacks on Peyton Manning in 127 pass attempts
- Teddy Bridgewater is completing 67.6 percent of his passes
- Adrian Peterson is averaging 4.9 yards on 59 carries
- Broncos run defense is holding opponents to 82.7 yards per game
- The Broncos have a +6 turnover ratio
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Dallas (2-1) at New Orleans (0-3)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
- Brandon Weeden has lost nine consecutive starts
- Cowboys are 6-10 without Tony Romo since he became the starter in 2006
- Joseph Randle is averaging 4.2 yards on 48 carries
- The Saints run defense is allowing 126 yards per game (26th in NFL)
- Luke McCown has completed 81.6 percent of his passes
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Detroit (0-3) at Seattle (1-2)
Monday, Oct. 5, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Two of Seattle’s next three games are at home
- Matthew Stafford was sacked four times in 45 pass attempts in Week 3
- RB Joique Bell has averaged 1.1 yards on 20 carries this season
- Seahawks have allowed 12 sacks on Russell Wilson in 101 pass attempts