The penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings will be announced on Tuesday as we enter conference championship weekend. For the teams that are no longer playing, these are the most important of the season. That's because the one and only time a team that was not playing on championship weekend jumped another such team in the final rankings was in 2014 was the year the format debuted (2014).
So, it is safe to assume that positioning of the teams that are not playing this weekend will not change relative to each other. Of course, teams that are playing can move around, which can cause teams not in action to have their rankings change. But those teams don't have to worry about anyone else.
With that in mind, the most important placement in these rankings will likely be Miami vs. Alabama. The one that the committee favors this week could end up being the last at-large team in the field. These are teams the committee has shown favor to all season. Will they prefer the better record of the Hurricanes against not as good of a schedule? Or will they prefer Alabama's strength of schedule and quality wins, albeit at home?
Do not get fooled into believing that top 25 wins are necessary to get into this tournament. Indiana has only one win over a team above. 500 (7-5 Michigan), and the Hoosiers will be ranked higher than both the Hurricanes and Crimson Tide.
There has also been a lot of questions about how much of a boost South Carolina will get for its win at Clemson. The problem for the Gamecocks is that they have losses to Ole Miss and Alabama. That does not bode well with a committee that has largely respected head-to-head results when possible.
Before we get going with this week's rankings prediction, here are some of the things the College Football Playoff Selection Committee considers besides a team's record:
- Conference championships – This does not come into play until the final weekend, when those are determined.
- Head-to-head
- Games against common opponents
- Results against ranked opponents.
References to "rankings" refer to last week's CFP Rankings. It is the only one the committee uses when looking at performance against ranked teams, which is not necessarily a huge factor. If a team has enough of those games, it will be reflected in the strength of schedule.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 | |
| The Ducks head to Indianapolis to play for a conference title in their first season in the Big Ten. The worst-case scenario for them is a loss to Penn State and a likely home game in the CFP. I hope we see the big duck floating in the White River again. (Last week -- 1) | |
| 2 | |
| It was good to have the Texas vs. Texas A&M rivalry back on the schedule, and even better was that the game was so meaningful. The Longhorns came away with a 17-7 win over the Aggies and will now face Georgia for the SEC title in their first year in the league. The Bulldogs won the first meeting in dominant fashion. (3) | |
| 3 | |
| The Nittany Lions got some help from Michigan beating Ohio State, and it is them who are off to Indianapolis to face Oregon for the Big Ten crown. Penn State did its part with a 44-7 pummeling of Maryland. A win over Oregon could make the Nittany Lions the No. 1 seed. (4) | |
| 4 | |
| Notre Dame won 49-35 at USC to end its regular season. Only Louisville and Texas A&M played the Fighting Irish closer in a defeat. If they had defeated Northern Illinois, there would be much weeping and gnashing of teeth over the fact that they cannot get a bye. (5) | |
| 5 | |
| The Bulldogs only needed eight overtimes to beat Georgia Tech 44-42 in their annual rivalry game. Texas now awaits in the SEC title game. The Bulldogs will be among the favorites when the College Football Playoff gets going. (7) | |
| 6 | |
| Stop me if you heard this one before: Ohio State lost to Michigan. It's the fourth straight win for the Wolverines in this series, which is serious enough that there was speculation about whether coach Ryan Day's job was safe. There is a chance the Buckeyes could be a spot lower than this. (2) | |
| 7 | |
| Tennessee defeated Vanderbilt to cap off a 10-2 season and lock up a spot on the CFP. Also, the win saved a couple more goalposts from a bath in a river. This ranking may end up being the 9-seed, which means a road game in the first round. (8) | |
| 8 | |
| The Mustangs did not get too fat and happy over clinching a spot in the ACC title game last week. They pummeled Cal 38-6 and now prepare for Clemson instead of Miami in the ACC Championship Game. (9) | |
| 9 | |
| Earlier this week, I suggested the Hoosiers put up as big a number as they can against Purdue for insurance. "There's nothing wrong with 63-0 that 70-0 wouldn't cure," I wrote. Well, they split the difference in a 66-0 win that ended the brief coaching tenure of Purdue's Ryan Walters. (10) | |
| 10 | |
| Ashton Jeanty went for over 200 yards again in a 34-18 win over Oregon State. The Broncos still have to win the Mountain West to get into the CFP, and they will host UNLV on Friday in a rematch – this time for the conference crown. (11) | |
| 11 | |
| The Hurricanes offense could not keep up with the defense in a 42-38 loss at Syracuse. This spot in the rankings is likely the cut line, and while I have Miami projected here, this is more of a ceiling than a floor. If they are lower than this in the committee rankings on Tuesday, they will be out. (6) | |
| 12 | |
| Alabama is hoping Miami falls below them, which is entirely possible. The Crimson Tide did their part in a 28-14 win over Auburn. Now they wait for the results on Selection Sunday. (12) | |
| 13 | |
| Despite Lane Kiffin's politicking this week, Ole Miss is not going to make the CFP this season. I'm sure the Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State was satisfying, though. (13) | |
| 14 | |
| The Gamecocks got a big win at Clemson to end the year, but that may not be enough to get into the CFP. You may note that I only have them moving up one spot – that's because the two teams directly ahead of them are among the three to beat them. (15) | |
| 15 | |
| The Sun Devils pummeled Arizona. Now they will play Iowa State for the Big 12 title and likely the 12th seed in the College Football Playoff. (16) | |
| 16 | |
| Iowa State beat Kansas State to earn its spot in the Big 12 championship. The stakes are the same for the Cyclones. The Big 12 is a one-bid league and will have the fifth-highest ranked conference champion barring an upset in the Mountain West. (18) | |
| 17 | |
| BYU did its part to keep its season alive for another week, defeating Houston 30-18. The Cougars came up short on the tiebreakers, though. (19) | |
| 18 | |
| The Tigers took a tough loss to South Carolina on Saturday. A win may have given them a shot at an-large spot in the CFP if it needed it. Now, they have to win their way in against SMU. (12) | |
| 19 | |
| The Orange turned the ACC on its head with a win over Miami. That should be good enough for Syracuse to make its debut in this season's rankings. (NR) | |
| 20 | |
| I don't think there is any other three-loss team that won the games it was supposed to win and lost the games it was supposed to lose. I guess that makes their CFP resume boring, but there really isn't anything boring about 9-3. (21) | |
| 21 | |
| The Rebels beat Nevada 38-14 and will make the trip to Boise looking for a spot in the CFP. That would have been in doubt, but Tulane's loss put the AAC out of contention for that fifth conference champion automatic bid. (22) | |
| 22 | |
| The Illini beat Northwestern to end a pretty solid regular season. Illinois will be the highest-ranked Big Ten team not in the CFP. That should be good for a spot in the Citrus Bowl. (23) | |
| 23 | |
| Colorado also tied for first in the Big 12 after a 52-0 pummeling of Oklahoma State. However, the Buffaloes will have to watch the Big 12 title game on TV like BYU because the tiebreakers were not in their favor. (25) | |
| 24 | |
| Army makes another appearance in the rankings after some losses by other teams in last week's top 25. I expect the Black Knights will be the only AAC team here this week. If Tulane beats Army for the AAC title, Memphis may be the only conference team in the rankings – if any are ranked at all. (NR) | |
| 25 | |
| Few teams have played as tough a schedule as the Tigers, which is why I have them back in the rankings at 8-4. It's almost the opposite of Indiana's schedule. Only one of LSU's FBS opponents did not qualify for a bowl (UCLA 5-7). (NR) | |
Next teams out (alphabetical order): Duke, Kansas State (24), Navy, Texas A&M (20), Tulane (17)