The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will probably spend a lot of time this week sorting through the two-loss SEC teams, of which there are now five following Georgia's win over Tennessee in Week 12.
The Bulldogs' win eliminates a lot of the head-to-head criteria among that group. Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are now 1-1 against each other. Ole Miss still has a head-to-head result over the Bulldogs; however, the Rebels will not play any of the other two-loss teams.
So, my prediction here is that strength of schedule will rule the day, which is how I have listed them in the rankings. I have them all together, although it is possible that other teams could mingle in among them.
One team that could drop into that pile is BYU, which took its first loss of the season at home to Kansas. I have felt that the committee has not thought very highly of the Cougars thus far, always leaving them at the bottom of the list of undefeated teams despite a better schedule and more quality wins than Indiana. But the Hoosiers have style points, and that is not unimportant. We will finally learn something about the Hoosiers this week when they face Ohio State.
Note that if these predicted rankings were used to make a bracket, No. 13 Boise State would get a bye because it is the fourth highest-ranked conference champion, just ahead of ACC leader SMU, which would automatically qualify for the field as the fifth highest-ranked conference champion.
Before we get going, here are some of the things they consider besides a team's record:
- Conference championships – This does not come into play until the final weekend, when those are determined.
- Head-to-head
- Games against common opponents
- Results against ranked opponents.
Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than the one you are used to hearing. The rankings they use for that standard are the previous week's CFP Rankings. They don't use rankings at the time the game was played from their own rankings or any other poll.
In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point, which excludes the AP Top 25 and Coaches' polls. Not only do they not try to mimic those polls, they do not even use them.
Trying to sort out strength of schedule is going to be more of a chore for the committee than in the past. Oh, sure, they will have a SOS metric to use, but getting into the details may cause some headaches. Now that the four major conferences each have 16 or more teams, you have teams playing widely diverse schedules, in terms of strength, within the conference.
In the Big Ten, 12 weeks into the season, Indiana only has one game on its schedule against a team that is currently bowl eligible -- Ohio State this weekend. After playing Big Ten East schedules for all those years, the Hoosiers were probably due for a break. Meanwhile, Purdue has already played three teams likely to be ranked in this week's top five and has one more coming, which is Indiana. The Boilermakers also played Illinois, which could end up in the final top 25 and a nonconference game against top 10-ranked Notre Dame.
Notice also that "game control" is not listed in the official criteria. It never has been, but that term comes out of the mouth of the committee chairman pretty regularly when talking about why a team is ranked where it is. Even if the chairman is not using that term specifically, he finds other ways to describe it. I was able to ask about that at the CFP mock selection exercise in 2021, and I was met with blank stares as if they had never heard of it.
Also, while scoring margin is not specifically a factor, the committee likes dominance. That is also a demonstration of game control, I suppose.
In the end, this is a subjective process guided by some objective data. There are 13 committee members and each may value the data points differently than their colleagues.
In the new 12-team format, the top five conference champions in the rankings are automatically in the playoff with the top four of those getting byes. The top seven remaining teams in the rankings will be at-large teams in the CFP. The current conference leaders are noted with an asterisk with the rankings breaking ties.
With all that in mind, here is what I think the rankings would look like this week. It is top heavy with SEC and Big Ten teams, but that is just where the power is in college football. Get used to it, because the gap will more likely get bigger over time.
References to "rankings" refer to last week's CFP Rankings. It is the only one the committee uses when looking at performance against ranked teams, which is not necessarily a huge factor. If a team has enough of those games, it will be reflected in the strength of schedule.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 | |
| The Ducks needed all four quarters to put away Wisconsin, but they eventually got the job done. They will get a week off now to prepare for the finale with Washington. (Last week -- 1) | |
| 2 | |
| Quarterback Will Howard threw a complete game in the Buckeyes 31-7 win over Northwestern at Wrigley Field. They are back in their own friendly confines to put Indiana to the test on Saturday. (2) | |
| 3 | |
| The Longhorns beat their old Southwest Conference rival Arkansas 20-10 to remain tied for first in the SEC. The big game remaining is the one at Texas A&M that could decide the conference title after Texas meets Kentucky this weekend. (3) | |
| 4 | |
| The Nittany Lions did to Purdue what good teams do to Purdue. They have two more games to go, the most dangerous of which is this week on the road at Minnesota. Then it's may the tiebreakers be ever in your favor. (4) | |
| 5 | |
| The Hoosiers have had two weeks to prepare for their biggest test of the season. It is remarkable and a function of schedules in massive leagues that Indiana will play its first opponent of the season that is currently bowl eligible. (5) | |
| 6 | |
| Notre Dame is cruising to the finish line and a likely spot in the CFP. This week's opponent, Army, is arguably the second best it will face this season. (8) | |
| 7 | |
| This is where I had the Hurricanes predicted last week after their loss at Georgia Tech. As I surmised, they ended up a couple spots lower. They should get to this spot this week following losses by two of the teams ahead of them. (9) | |
| 8 | |
| The Cougars had tight games two of the last three weeks, but it didn't bite them until Kansas beat them in Provo on Saturday night. This is a ceiling for them. I would not be surprised if they fell all the way down to just ahead of Boise State. (6) | |
| 9 | |
| I think the committee could reasonably justify ranking the next four teams in any order. The Bulldogs have played the toughest schedule and have nothing resembling a questionable loss. That strength of schedule will take a hit this week, however, as the Dawgs host UMass. (12) | |
| 10 | |
| Alabama has played an outstanding schedule as well, although last week's scrimmage with Mercer did nothing for it. I still have the Crimson Tide winning the tiebreaker in what is projected to be a five-way battle for second in the SEC. (10) | |
| 11 | |
| Tennessee has completed the circle with Alabama and Georgia with their loss to the Bulldogs on Saturday. It is also the Volunteers' turn for the SEC sabbatical game that many in the league play in November as they host UTEP. (7) | |
| 12 | |
| The Rebels' strength of schedule falters when compared to the teams above them in this group. The only two teams in this week's rankings on their schedule are Georgia and South Carolina. If they miss the playoff, they will have to look no farther than the home loss to Kentucky. (11) | |
| 13 | |
| The Broncos should hold their spot this week after a comfortable win at San Jose State. This week's game against Wyoming offers another chance to put up a big number. (13) | |
| 14 | |
| The Mustangs are closing in on a spot in the ACC Championship Game. They could clinch with a win over Virginia but may need some help. I have not dug into the tiebreakers, but the top three teams, which include Clemson and Miami, do not play each other in the regular season. (14) | |
| 15 | |
| After two weeks all-but-off, the Aggies have to get back into SEC competition mode beginning this week against Auburn. They still control their own fate for the SEC Championship Game. (15) | |
| 16 | |
| Colorado has gotten hot at a good time, winning four straight to get to the top of the Big 12 standings. Kansas helped them out at BYU last week. Now Colorado has to avoid paying BYU back by losing to Kansas this weekend itself. (17) | |
| 17 | |
| After back-to-back road wins, most recently at Pitt, Clemson is also taking a sabbatical this week by hosting the Citadel. I guess it's not entirely an SEC thing. In fact, the Tigers are done with ACC play. They are just hoping for help with SMU and/or Miami. (20) | |
| 18 | |
| Clemson's in-state rival is also done with conference play following a 34-30 win over Missouri last week. The Gamecocks are also playing an FCS opponent -- Wofford -- before the season-ender with the Tigers. (21) | |
| 19 | |
| The Sun Devils have won five of their last six to get within a game of BYU and Colorado in the Big 12 race. They can help themselves and make a big splash win a win over the Cougars at home this week. (NR) | |
| 20 | |
| The Wildcats fell out of contention in the Big 12 after losing to Arizona State at home last week. The loss that really hurt, though, was the one at Houston the game prior. (16) | |
| 21 | |
| Last week, the Green Wave clinched a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Army with a win at Navy. They may be able to clinch home-field advantage by winning their last game, but Memphis doesn't figure to be an easy out. That is a problem for another week. (25) | |
| 22 | |
| The Black Knights will get their big chance to make an impression on the committee this week when they face Notre Dame. A win might cause the biggest late-November jump in the rankings in their history. (24) | |
| 23 | |
| The Rebels have quietly had a pretty good season but are unlikely to play for the Mountain West title. It is not impossible, though, but they need help from Colorado State. (NR) | |
| 24 | |
| The Illini would have been in the rankings already if not for a home loss to Minnesota to start November. Illinois is done with the home portion of its schedule, so to stay in these rankings, it will have to finish strong on the road against Rutgers and Northwestern. (NR) | |
| 25 | |
| The Tigers may fall out of the rankings after a loss at South Carolina. The Tigers have beaten the teams they should beat and lost to the teams that should beat them. (23) | |
First five out (alphabetical order): Duke, Iowa State, Louisville (19), Pittsburgh, Washington State (18)