It's all over but the crying for now. The regular season has been played, conference championships have been decided and now all that's left is for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee to release their final rankings ahead of the first-ever 12-team bracket reveal.
There has been a lot of discourse the last couple of weeks from conferences and teams about the potential damage from a loss in a league championship game under this new format. But the thing is: All games matter, and the results count.
We do know that the teams that did not play this week will not change their position relative to each other. They could move around as teams that did play shift positions, though.
Before we get going with this week's rankings prediction, here are some of the things the College Football Playoff Selection Committee considers besides a team's record:
- Conference championships – This does not come into play until the final weekend, when those are determined.
- Head-to-head
- Games against common opponents
- Results against ranked opponents.
References to "rankings" refer to last week's CFP Rankings. It is the only one the committee uses when looking at performance against ranked teams, which is not necessarily a huge factor. If a team has enough of those games, it will be reflected in the strength of schedule.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 | |
| The Ducks had to work hard for it, but they completed an undefeated season with a 45-37 win over Penn State. They will be justly rewarded with the top seed in the first version of the 12-team playoff. (Last week -- 1) | |
| 2 | |
| The Bulldogs only needed one overtime this week to get a victory. They also needed two quarterbacks to knock off Texas 22-19 to win the SEC for the second time in the last three seasons. Georgia is a lock for the No. 2 seed. (5) | |
| 3 | |
| The Longhorns should not be punished too badly for the loss to Georgia. The Bulldogs will jump them, but that's the extent of the damage. (2) | |
| 4 | |
| The Nittany Lions gave Oregon all they could handle and, like Texas, are expected to only fall one spot due to the win by Georgia as opposed to their own defeat. (3) | |
| 5 | |
| Did not play. (4) | |
| 6 | |
| Did not play. (6) | |
| 7 | |
| Did not play. (7) | |
| 8 | |
| The Broncos beat UNLV for a second time this season and are projected for a bye in the College Football Playoff. I have Boise State squeaking ahead of Indiana after getting their second win of the season over a ranked team. The Broncos now have four wins over teams with more than seven wins. The Hoosiers have zero. Indiana's overall scoring margin may still rule the day, but Boise State's one game against an elite team – Oregon – went down to the wire. The Hoosiers got smoked by Ohio State. This move, if it happens, would not affect either team's seed in the CFP because the Broncos will get a bye. (10) | |
| 9 | |
| Did not play. (9) | |
| 10 | |
| Did not play. (11) | |
| 11 | |
| The Sun Devils pounded No. 16 Iowa State 45-19 to earn a berth in the College Football Playoff. Arizona State was impressive against the team ranked right below them in last week's rankings, and its second ranked win of the season should be enough to move them past the ACC trio. That would be good enough to earn the fourth bye in the CFP. (15) | |
| 12 | |
| The Tigers blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead against No. 8 SMU in the ACC Championship Game but got a game winning 56-yard field goal to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff. Clemson is projected to be the 12-seed, even if it is not ranked this high. (17) | |
| 13 | |
| The Mustangs made a furious, fourth-quarter comeback against Clemson, but in the end, it was not enough. With a second loss, SMU's tournament resume looks a lot more like Miami's than it does Alabama's. The Mustangs would have to stay above the Crimson Tide to remain in the CFP and knock out Alabama. That seems unlikely. (8) | |
| 14 | |
| Did not play. (12) | |
| 15 | |
| Did not play. (13) | |
| 16 | |
| Did not play. (14) | |
| 17 | |
| Did not play. (18) | |
| 18 | |
| Did not play. (19) | |
| 19 | |
| The Rebels did not embarrass themselves, but they never really threatened Boise State either in the Mountain West title game. They are actually projected to gain a spot in the rankings this week, but only because of Iowa State falling below them. (20) | |
| 20 | |
| The Cyclones got throttled by Arizona State and are expected to fall a few spots in the rankings because of it. (16) | |
| 21 | |
| Did not play. (21) | |
| 22 | |
| Did not play. (22) | |
| 23 | |
| Did not play. (23) | |
| 24 | |
| Army won the AAC title comfortably over Tulane to run its record to 11-1. The Black Knights have played one fewer game than almost everyone else because the Navy game is next week. (24) | |
| 25 | |
| Did not play. (NR) | |
Next out (alphabetical order): Duke, Kansas State, Navy, Texas A&M, Tulane