College Football Playoff Quarterfinal - Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Miami v Ohio State
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With inevitable College Football Playoff expansion looming and the decision deadline approaching this week, it's never too early to project every team's shot at returning to the bracket in 2026. Indiana and Miami's chances at getting back to the playoff are high given each program's impressive showings thus far in the transfer portal as both look to reload -- and retain -- talent.

Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas will be the host site for next season's national championship game as the Big Ten looks to continue its reign atop college football on the heels of three consecutive titles. While no two-deeps are set given roster fluctuation still taking place, some teams are better suited than others to compete for a title in 2026.

These teams are ranked in order of most likely to return to the playoff to the lowest possible chance. Here's a look at this season's field and those programs' expectations for next fall.

1. Ohio State

Following consecutive playoff trips with the Buckeyes, Ryan Day will get back as one of the Big Ten's top teams next season and he's not rushing this pending offensive coordinator hire before doing so after losing Brian Hartline to South Florida's coaching vacancy. There should be a wealth of options available to Day with the luxury of quarterback Julian Sayin, wideout Jeremiah Smith and tight end Max Klare coming back. Several anchors of Matt Patricia's defense are gone after Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs bounced to the NFL, but the Buckeyes have depth after signing a top-5 portal class that's loaded on that side. Taking some of the pressure off Sayin and the passing game with better production from the backfield is up to Bo Jackson, who rushed for 1,060 yards as a freshman, and Florida transfer signee Ja'Kobi Jackson.

2. Miami

It's no secret Miami needs a starting quarterback after hitting home runs in consecutive transfer cycles with Cam Ward and Carson Beck, so finishing the deal for Duke's Darian Mensah is paramount. Potentially getting former Colorado offensive tackle Jordan Seaton, the top player available, would be a major win and reliable insurance policy for its new signal caller. Assuming the Hurricanes open the checkbook to retain their stars and grab some of the headliners left in this portal cycle -- like Mensah -- we're not expecting much drop-off for Mario Cristobal's team despite losing offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa and defensive standouts Rueben Bain Jr., Keionte Scott and Akheem Mesidor. The production on Corey Hetherman's side of the football will be a challenge to replicate, but the Hurricanes' personnel department and development has been elite.

3. Oregon

Dan Lanning might've lost in a lopsided playoff semifinal this month, but the rest of January has served the Ducks quite well with news of Dante Moore's decision to return for another season. He'll be at the top of most quarterback lists during the 2026 preseason. We were initially expecting there to be at least some regression involving the Ducks in 2026 given their talent losses, but convincing their star quarterback to skip the NFL Draft for another campaign is notable. That move alone should help Oregon overcome losing elite offensive coordinator Will Stein given Moore's leadership and knowledge on the field within this system. Tosh Lupoi's departure to California complicates matters a bit for Lanning on defense, however.

4. Indiana

Curt Cignetti's cleaning up in the transfer portal, again. And given his proven coaching acumen his first two years with the Hoosiers, this machine isn't slowing down. The Hoosiers play Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington during the regular season in 2026, but only two of those matchups come away from Bloomington. They should be one of the early favorites to capture another Big Ten title and get back to the field as a top-4 seed with former TCU standout Josh Hoover at quarterback and reinforcements at the skill positions. No program nationally this season was better prepared on gameday and that will continue under Cignetti and staff. The standard has been set with consecutive playoff appearances and the days of being an also-ran are over for the Hoosiers. Thanks to Cignetti and increasing resources, Indiana has staying power.

5. Georgia

Georgia's two-deep will be tweaked a bit after spring practice and several position battles are decided, but Kirby Smart's team should be the SEC's preseason frontrunner along with Texas. Gunner Stockton showed considerable poise in his first campaign as Georgia's starting quarterback and he should be even better in 2026 with three starters back along the offensive front and the two-man tandem of Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens in the backfield. CJ Allen leaves as the alpha of the linebacker room, but the Bulldogs will be fine with Raylen Wilson and Chris Cole back, with Justin Williams and Zayden Walker equally of note. Georgia's 2026 signing class is a top-10 group, not top-5. That's something to watch moving forward as recruiting continues to morph in the NIL era.

6. Texas Tech

Programs either adjust and flex in this new era of roster-building or fall behind and don't have the cash to keep up. More Big 12 championships are coming Texas Tech's way under Joey McGuire, who has embraced portal signings and has buy-in from deep-pocketed investors in his program. The Red Raiders' incoming 2026 transfer class isn't as star-laced as last, but getting Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby was a splash and there's enough quality additions at the line of scrimmage to keep things humming in Lubbock for next fall as a preseason title contender.

7. Texas A&M

When you have a top-end quarterback, you have a chance and the Aggies secured another year out of Marcel Reed after the season to bring back their offensive centerpiece. Eighteen transfers have signed with Texas A&M, many of whom will be leaned upon to produce and fill voids left by a group that helped Mike Elko win 11 games in 2025. Losing veteran offensive lineman Trey Zuhn, wideout KC Concepcion and what he brought to the passing game from a playmaker standpoint along with pass rusher Cassius Howell is heavy. There's the schedule, too. Unlike this season, it's not a favorable slate considering matchups with Arizona State, LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas and Tennessee -- opponents we're expecting to be ranked in or around the preseason top 25.

8. Oklahoma

After leading the Sooners to 10 wins in his first season, John Mateer returns at quarterback and he'll have a couple new targets to throw to and pair with WR1 Isaiah Sategna after Oklahoma landed Virginia star Trell Harris and Texas pass-catcher Parker Livingston in the portal. The rebuild defensively for Brent Venables will determine where the Sooners land in next year's final rankings given the loss of more than a half-dozen starters and several key contributors. The Sooners need former five-star David Stone to be a game-wrecker along the defensive front, much like Miami enjoyed this season with Bain. A consistent pass rush at Oklahoma could keep Vemables' program near the top of the SEC again with another defensive-minded squad.

9. Ole Miss

Legal representation for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss filed a lawsuit last week in Mississippi seeking another year for one of the SEC's top players. If a preliminary injunction to secure eligibility for next season is not granted, the Rebels will turn to Auburn transfer Deuce Knight under first-year coach Pete Golding and new offensive coordinator John David Baker as the post-Lane Kiffin era in Oxford officially begins. Ole Miss landed one of college football's top portal classes and was able to retain running back Kewan Lacy, who rushed for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns. If Chambliss is granted another year, the Rebels would make a giant leap in this 2026 playoff outlook. Their schedule next season includes trips to Florida, Oklahoma and Texas along with a home showdown with Georgia. Get to 10 wins and they're likely in with that slate.  

10. Alabama

The Crimson Tide's new reality is difficult to comprehend for fans of a program accustomed to winning big under the previous coaching regime. Alabama has lost its physicality edge under Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide are losing ground in the transfer portal. They needed a difference-maker in the backfield and thought they landed one with NC State's Hollywood Smothers before he signed with Texas. Daniel Hill, Kevin Riley and AK Dear will fight for reps in hopes of getting this rushing attack off the ground after being non-existent this fall. Ty Simpson's exit to the NFL means DeBoer and OC Ryan Grubb will turn to Austin Mack or Keelon Russell at quarterback to start a new era at the position. The secondary should be the strength of Alabama's defense with Zabien Brown, Bray Hubbard and Dijon Lee back.

11. Tulane

More than a dozen of Tulane's 2026 starters under first-year coach Will Hall will be transfers, many from Power Four programs looking for extended reps. Jon Sumrall left the program in good shape and proved you can win at Tulane through annual roster rinsing via the portal. Hall will shape this team with his own principles, but much of Sumrall's philosophical approach should remain. Former Houston quarterback Zeon Chriss committed to Tulane this month after originally planning to sign with Marshall Faulk's Southern program. He'll be tasked with helping the Green Wave defend their AAC title.

12. James Madison

Billy Napier has his work cut out for him at JMU, but he's managed extensive success before in the Group of Five ranks prior to his short-lived tenure in the SEC at Florida. Bob Chesney carried over what Cignetti helped build with the Dukes last season and Napier could use pages from each of those tenures to replicate success -- or at least attempt to. JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett III transferred to UCF and the Dukes replaced him with former Memphis signal caller Arrington Maiden. JMU recently lost its marquee nonconference game against James Franklin and Virginia Tech next season after the Hokies pulled out.