2017 Fantasy Baseball draft prep strategy: Ranking closer potential

You can pretty much take your pick of the top closers here. Kenley Jansen gets the slight edge over Chapman for me, because I expect the Dodgers to be a decent amount better than the Yankees, but you can just flip a coin. 

In five seasons as closer, Chapman has averaged 36 saves and 109 strikeouts, with a 1.84 ERA. If you want to take him as the top closer, it makes perfect sense.

With a 1.38 ERA and 40 saves per season since becoming the closer, Britton might actually be better than either Chapman or Jansen in those categories. He plays for a likely playoff contender and is about as good as relievers come, but there’s a pretty wide gap between expected strikeouts here, which is all it takes to drop him to third. Not a bad consolation prize if you want an elite closer.

I don’t need to see much more from Diaz to rank him among the top closers, however he wasn’t quite elite in his MLB debut in 2016; his 2.79 ERA and 1.161 WHIP are a clear step below that tier. However, he was every bit Jansen or Chapman’s equal as a strikeout pitcher last year, and could be the kind of reliever who strikes out 110 batters for a playoff team. He just doesn’t have the track record yet. 

The only question with Davis is health, as he has had forearm issues in each of the last two seasons. When healthy, he’s in the discussion for the best reliever in baseball, with a 1.18 ERA and 0.892 WHIP over the last three seasons. Pitching for a Cubs team that is the odds on favorite to lead the league in wins only helps. 

Kimbrel hasn’t looked quite as dominant over the last two years, and a knee injury really seemed to bother him last season, leading to his worst full season yet. Of course, he still saved 31 games and struck out 83 batters in 53 innings, so there’s only so far he can seemingly drop. 

A few bad outings really ruined Giles’ season, and he ended up with a 4.11 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in his first year with the Astros. However, he still struck out 14 batters per nine, and still carries a 2.48 ERA over 181 1/3 innings in his career, so it’s not hard to see how he might have top-3 potential. However, if Giles slips up, the Astros have plenty of options to step into the role, beginning with Will Harris and Luke Gregerson. 

If not for a potential suspension for an offseason domestic violence incident, Familia would probably be in the top tier. Don’t be afraid to draft him, but know you might need a fill in for the first month or so. Addison Reed is a nice late-round flier. 

Having the best reliever in baseball backing you up might not give you a ton of leeway to struggle, however the Indians seem content to use Andrew Miller as a do-it-all fireman, so Allen’s ninth-inning job may be safer than it seems. Miller may 

There’s a pretty good Herrera is being dramatically undervalued coming into the season, as his strikeout rate took a big jump forward last season to 10.8 per nine. With a 2.30 ERA over the last three seasons in at least 69 2/3 innings, he is pretty safe, and doesn’t have much competition at all in Kansas City. 

It was only one season, but Oh was dominant in his major-league debut in 2016, posting a 1.92 ERA with 103 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings. A limited track record in the majors is all that keeps him from the top tier, and given his success in Japan and Korea, even that might not be giving him enough credit.  

You won’t get the elite strikeout rate with Melancon, but that’s about the only knock you can make on him at this point. He has a 1.80 ERA over the last four seasons, and gets to take his extreme homer prevention to San Francisco, one of the best pitchers parks in the league. He should thrive for a playoff contender. 

Osuna is kind of the opposite of Melancon; tons of strikeouts, but he has trouble keeping the ball in the yard from time to time. When it comes out to a 2.63 ERA and 3.11 FIP in his first 143 2/3 innings in the majors, it’s hard to complain, especially when it comes for a playoff team with little other competition for the ninth inning. 

Colome could end up the best value at the position this season, because he doesn’t get enough credit for the leap he made last season. He made the jump from interesting-but-flawed starter to lights out reliever, and has a 2.13 ERA with  115 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings since becoming a full-time reliever in 2015. The Rays won’t win many games, but he saved 37 on just 68 wins last season, and there are reasons to think they should be better in 2016. 

Ramos certainly can be a high-end closer, with 72 saves and a 2.55 ERA (2.95 FIP) over the last two seasons. However, because he often struggles with his control, he is a volatile ninth-inning option, prone to blowups. On some teams, that might not be a huge concern, but the Marlins are built around their bullpen depth this season, meaning they have no shortage of replacement options, starting with Kyle Barraclough and his 36.9 percent strikeout rate. 

If he gets the job, Kelley should be a very good ninth inning option for the Nationals, coming off a season with a 2.64 ERA and 12.4 K/9. However, they seem to want to do anything they can do avoid that, which makes it tough to value him properly coming into the season.  

Robertson is kind of the opposite of Kelley, in that he’s “proven” he can be a ninth-inning guy, but with just a 3.32 ERA over the last three seasons, he’s a pretty boring one. It is ironic, then, that he seems to be the favorite to take Kelley’s job, via a long-rumored trade between the White Sox and Nationals.   

The ultimate boring, safe closer, Rodriguez has saved at least 38 games in each of his last three seasons, with an ERA between 2.21 and 3.24. The 35-year-old’s best days are behind him, and the Tigers are a candidate to blow the roster up if they aren’t contending, which makes him an obvious mid-season trade risk. However, as long as he’s in a closer’s role, Rodriguez seems liable to just keep doing what he has done for years. 

Watson is another reliever who won’t rack up big strikeouts, but that hasn’t been an issue for him yet, as he sports a 2.56 ERA with 8.0 K/9 in his career. He did take a step back last season, posting his worst ERA since 2012 and his worst FIP since 2011, but he doesn’t have much competition for the role, and feels like a safe fallback option as your second or even third closer. 

With a  2.45 ERA over the last three seasons, Dyson has certainly prevented runs like an elite reliever. His peripherals are a bit more middling, but with a groundball rate he can push close to 70 percent, he tends to get himself out of quite a few jams. Once again, the strikeouts aren’t where you want them to be, and Matt Bush looms as a potential shut-down reliever if the Rangers lose faith in Dyson, but nothing he’s done so far should make you wary of trusting him. 

Johnson took a huge leap forward last season, increasing his strikeout rate from 6.75 to 9.46 per nine, while lowering his ERA from 4.46 to 3.06. That’s a pretty big red flag on its own, without even taking into account the fact that he’s 33 and last posted an ERA near 3.00 in 2013. He may have found a new level of success, but skepticism is fair, especially since it didn’t come with a big change in repertoire or swinging strike rate. Johnson doesn’t have much upside, but the good news is, you won’t have to pay much for him. Nor should you.  

Nobody should be excited about drafting Rodney. He’s here because he has a job. Because the Diamondbacks just don’t have any better options. Rodney is really only going to help you in steals, which isn’t worth paying up for. Settle for him. 

If the form Feliz showed last season is real, he might not belong here, because he finally started getting strikeouts again. He had real issues keeping the ball in the yard, however, which could be an issue playing half his games in Miller Park. Keep an eye on Corey Knebel, who struggled last season, but has had success in the majors before. 

Kintzler isn’t likely to be as disastrous as Rodney, but he is the very definition of a default option. At least Rodney gets strikeouts. Kintzler is a groundball artist who limits free passes, so he could be a decent run prevention option, but there’s just no upside here. The problem is, the Twins really don’t have any other options, with Glen Perkins’ ongoing injury concerns. Young lefty Taylor Rogers showed some nice things out of the bullpen for the Twins as a rookie, so he could get some chances if Kintzler falters. 

When Greg Holland was healthy, there wasn’t a better reliever in baseball, as he posted a 1.86 ERA with 12.6 K/9 over a four year stretch from 2011 through 2014. However, he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015, and may not even be ready for the start of the season at this point. Ottavino isn’t just a placeholder, sporting a 2.84 ERA in the tough environment of Coors Field, so there’s no guarantee he gives up the job. Still, if Holland looks like himself, it might be hard to avoid the temptation of handing him the ninth. 

Maurer has exactly one good season in the majors to his name, as he posted a 3.00 ERA in 51 innings in 2015 for the Padres. However, he has at least looked better by defense-independent pitching stats, hovering between 3.31 and 3.49 in FIP over the last three seasons. If the spike in his strikeout rate last season was real and he can get a little better luck, he might not be a bad option. However, if Carter Capps is healthy, it might not matter, because Capps can be the best reliever in the league if healthy. Write it off as a result of his gimmicky deliver if you must, but the last time we saw Capps in the majors, he had a 1.16 ERA and struck out 58 of 118 batters he faced. If Capps is healthy, it shouldn’t be long before he gets his chance.