Half of all prospects are pitchers, and if you look at enough of them, you start to go cross-eyed.
What I mean is they all run together after a certain point. The ones who inspire real poetry are pretty well known to all, but for the rest, the scouting reports descend into dry recitations of what pitches they throw and at what velocities. Ack.
It's not a fault of the industry so much as the nature of the beast. I could sum it up with TINSTAAPP, maybe -- i.e., there is no such thing as a pitching prospect -- but the acronym has been bandied about so much that I feel like it's come to describe too many things. More specifically, I'm saying that while evaluators (myself included) are generally good at identifying the many pitchers who could pop, they generally suck at identifying the few who will.
And I'm given only 30 choices here.
As such, starting pitcher is the position where I'm most inclined to prioritize proximity. If you've made it to the majors or are on the cusp, your chances of making good on your potential increase tenfold ... or some other arbitrary number. If nothing else, it means you've overcome the attrition that takes down so many along the way.
Know, then, that if I've included a pitcher here who isn't on the verge of reaching the majors, it means that his talent is truly next-level, the kind deserving of poetry. And if one of your favorite pitchers didn't make the cut, know that he's just a hurdle or two behind some of the ones who did.
One last point: I keep referring to starting pitchers, but relievers are eligible for this list, too. It's just that they pretty much have to be in line for saves already to justify a ranking. Such was the case for Camilo Doval at this time last year, but it's rare.
OK, I lied. Here's my one last point: Shane Baz might appear on some prospect rank lists, but he's not on mine. It's not because he's undeserving but because I hold to a stricter definition of prospect (i.e., retaining rookie eligibility, which he does not).
Note: This list is intended for a variety of Fantasy formats and thus weighs short-term role against long-term value. Not all of these players will contribute in 2023 — most, in fact, will not — but among prospects, they're the names Fantasy Baseballers most need to know.
1. Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 6-2, 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 75 2/3 IP, 28 BB, 109 K
Rodriguez's easy ride to the big leagues finally hit a speed bump with a lat strain in June, which prevented him from debuting around the same time as Adley Rutschman as planned. He's still about as complete a pitching prospect as you can ask for, able to command a full arsenal of swing-and-miss secondaries while really needing only needing one because his fastball is so good.
2. Andrew Painter, Phillies
Age (on opening day): 19
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 6-2, 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 103 2/3 IP, 25 BB, 155 K
There is no overstating how good Painter was in 2022. In his first full professional season, fresh out of high school, he climbed all the way to Double-A, improving his control at every stop. Over his final 12 starts, including five of six innings or more, he had six walks compared to 82 strikeouts for a 1.31 ERA, which is like an act of sorcery from a 6-foot-7 19-year-old.
3. Eury Perez, Marlins
Age (on opening day): 19
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 3-3, 3.97 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 77 IP, 25 BB, 110 K
Perez possesses some of the same superhuman qualities as Painter, able to dominate Double-A at 19 years old with remarkably good control for someone still learning to inhabit a 6-foot-8 body. That size extends the reach on his fastball, making it appear even faster than its occasional triple-digit readings. Take out a three-start stretch that led to him being shut down with a lat injury in August, and his ERA drops to 2.74.
4. Daniel Espino, Guardians
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2022: Double-A
Minor-league stats: 1-0, 2.45 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 18 1/3 IP, 4 BB, 35 K
Espino has 14.9 K/9 over his minor-league career, including 17.2 K/9 in his first taste of Double-A last year, and I could almost end the analysis there. But I should probably acknowledge that he lasted only four starts in 2022 because of knee and then shoulder troubles. He's like a prototype for the next generation of power pitcher, offering that classic fastball/slide pairing but at supercharged velocities. Will he hold up physically, though?
5. Ricky Tiedemann, Blue Jays
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 5-4, 2.17 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 78 2/3 IP, 29 BB, 117 K
Tiedemann completes the trifecta of 19-year-old pitching prospects who made it all the way to Double-A last year, but I'm putting him a notch below Painter and Perez because he's lacking their imposing size. He's only, um ... 6-feet-4. OK, so maybe the control is a little worse? Anyway, he has the whole vertical approach angle thing going for him, making his fastball difficult to square up, and his changeup is already a bringer of death.
6. Kyle Harrison, Giants
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 4-3, 2.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 113 IP, 49 BB, 186 K
Master of two of the most "it" pitches right now, the rising four-seamer and the sweeping slider, Harrison struck out nearly 40 percent of the hitters he faced in 2022, which is sure to make him pop on any prospect list. The stuff may be good enough to overcome shaky control, particularly since he throws left-handed, but with where his control is right now, I'd classify it more as a moderate than a mild concern.
7. Gavin Williams, Guardians
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 5-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 115 IP, 40 BB, 149 K
Williams went from trendy sleeper in first-year player drafts to full-fledged breakout in his professional debut, leading all minor-leaguers with a .173 opponent batting average. While he's still fine-tuning his command (not surprising given his 6-foot-6 frame), he's already proven himself at Double-A, making it not unthinkable he could debut in 2023. His high-90s fastball is a swing-and-miss offering in its own right, which generally points to a high ceiling.
8. Taj Bradley, Rays
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 7-4, 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 133 1/3 IP, 33 BB, 141 K
After a clear top seven, Bradley seems like he's the next man up just because someone has to be, making him the best of the pitchers who probably won't develop into aces. In his case, it's because he lacks a true swing-and-miss pitch, instead relying on a fastball/cutter combo for weak contact. The stuff is good enough that he gets his share of strikeouts anyway, but he stands out more for run suppression.
9. Hunter Brown, Astros
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 9-4, 2.55 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 106 IP, 45 BB, 134 K
Major-league stats: 2-0, 0.89 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 20 1/3 IP, 7 BB, 22 K
The talk for Brown leading up to his September promotion was that he had spectacular stuff, with top-shelf velocity on his fastball and slider especially, but poor control, and the numbers seemed to back it up. But then he came up and threw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes as compared to 62 percent in the minors, so maybe he's close to cracking that nut. He'll be the first up if an Astros starter goes down.
10. Gavin Stone, Dodgers
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 9-6, 1.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 121 2/3 IP, 44 BB, 168 K
No pitcher had a better final line than Stone, whose ERA was no higher than 1.60 at any of his three minor-league stops. Not only is his changeup a wipeout pitch that helped account for a ridiculous 18 percent swinging-strike rate but it also paired perfectly with the vertical approach angle on his fastball to suppress hard contact, resulting in just three long balls all season long.
11. Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 11-7, 3.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 167 IP, 33 BB, 218 K
At the same affiliate where Ryne Nelson had a 5.43 ERA and Drey Jameson had a 6.95 ERA, Pfaadt's ERA in 10 starts last season was 2.63. He also had a 69 percent strike rate and 17 percent swinging-strike rate at Triple-A Reno, just incredible numbers. The scouting reports haven't caught up yet, but his dominance at a place where domination should be impossible is reminiscent of Zac Gallen (with the Marlins at the time) just before his debut.
12. Bobby Miller, Dodgers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 7-7, 4.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 112 1/3 IP, 37 BB, 145 K
Though hyped as a draft day steal since the earliest reports out of the alternate training site in 2020, Miller wasn't actually allowed to pitch beyond five innings until this 2022. It wasn't always smooth sailing, but he showed his power arsenal would hold up, recording double-digit strikeouts in four of his final 11 starts. The Dodgers are a development factory, so you can trust them to maximize the obvious potential.
13. Max Meyer, Marlins
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 3-4, 3.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 61 IP, 19 BB, 69 K
Major-league stats: 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Meyer was in the running for top overall pitching prospect early last year, but that's about the time his elbow troubles started, first a nerve issue and then Tommy John surgery soon after making his major-league debut. It introduces new risk and ensures he won't be a factor in 2023, but he has an arsenal worth waiting for: an overpowering fastball, wipeout slider and changeup that's finally reaching maturity.
14. Tink Hence, Cardinals
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2022: Low-A
Minor-league stats: 0-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 52 1/3 IP, 15 BB, 81 K
Though limited to four innings per start, Hence announced himself as a premiere pitching prospect with a knockout performance at Low-A and more than held his own in an aggressive assignment to the Arizona Fall League after the season. With a slight build and relatively short stature, he'll have to prove he can hold up to a starter's workload, but with four pitches that flash plus, he has the arsenal for it.
15. Kodai Senga, Mets
Age (on opening day): 30
Where he played in 2022: Japan
NPB stats: 11-6, 1.89 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 148 IP, 50 BB, 159 K
This may seem like an odd place to slot a 30-year-old on a dynasty rank list, but since we can never presume longevity at starting pitcher anyway, why not prioritize the one with far and away the best chance of making an immediate impact? A prospect only by technicality, Senga's fastball has peaked at 101 mph, and his "ghost fork" once earned higher marks than Shohei Ohtani's splitter.
16. Tanner Bibee, Guardians
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 8-2, 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 132 2/3 IP, 27 BB, 167 K
No organization has a better reputation for developing pitching right now than the Guardians, and Bibee's out-of-nowhere ascent has him being compared to some of the best they've ever produced, like Shane Bieber. He's similarly a strike-throwing machine, his already stellar walk rate improving with his move up to Double-A, but it was a spike in velocity that fueled his breakthrough.
17. Cade Cavalli, Nationals
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 6-4, 3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 97 IP, 39 BB, 104 K
Major-league stats: 4.1, 6 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Cavalli is projected to join the Nationals starting rotation this season after making one start in 2022, and while it feels like his stock has slipped after an underwhelming performance at Triple-A, note that he pitched more in line with his pedigree over his final 13 starts there, delivering a 2.10 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. His arsenal is good enough, featuring multiple ways of striking batters out, but he's still learning how to make it fit together.
18. Jack Leiter, Rangers
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2022: Double-A
Minor-league stats: 3-10, 5.54 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 92 2/3 IP, 56 BB, 109 K
The second overall pick in last year's draft went from being can't-miss to anything but in his professional debut, his walk rate rising to levels that are simply untenable. He gets a pass because of his stuff and pedigree, not to mention the Rangers aggressively assigning him to Double-A right away, but without marked improvement in Year 2, his stock will plummet.
19. Jackson Jobe, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2022: Low-A, High-A
Minor-league stats: 4-5, 3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 77 1/3 IP, 30 BB, 81 K
Jobe's stat line won't impress you, but the third overall pick in the 2021 draft is still in the earliest stages of development -- and I don't just mean refining his skills. He's still growing, physically, which makes it all the more impressive his fastball is already peaking at 97 mph. His most impressive tool, though, is his slider, which frequently registers spin rates in excess of 3,000 rpm. You don't see many that can do that.
20. Mick Abel, Phillies
Age (on opening day): 21
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 8-11, 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 108 1/3 IP, 50 BB, 130 K
A year before Painter, Able was the high school hurler the Phillies drafted in Round 1, and while he hasn't made as big of an impression (because who could?), he hasn't done anything to disqualify himself either. He's on a more conventional development path, featuring a big fastball and the makings of four strong pitches, but is working on the finer points of command and consistency. Stay the course.
21. Drey Jameson, Diamondbacks
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 7-13, 6.31 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 132 2/3 IP, 46 BB, 132 K
Major-league stats: 3-0, 1.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 24 1/3 IP, 7 BB, 24 K
For most of last season Jameson investors probably thought they had a bust on their hands, particularly when he was putting together a 6.95 ERA at Triple-A Reno. But it turns out the top two levels of the Diamondbacks system are just dreadful places to pitch. He came up and shut down the Padres, Dodgers and Giants immediately upon arrival, perfectly playing his sinker and slider off a rising four-seamer that approaches triple digits.
22. Ryan Pepiot, Dodgers
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 9-1, 2.56 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 91 1/3 IP, 36 BB, 114 K
Major-league stats: 3-0, 3.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 36 1/3 IP, 27 BB, 42 K
Pepiot earns high marks for pure stuff, with his fastball and changeup both rating near the top of the scale. His problem has always been control, and it was exacerbated in his first taste of the majors last year, resulting in 6.7 BB/9. His fly-ball tendencies also make him vulnerable to the long ball. He may serve the Dodgers best as a trade chip since their permanent contender status doesn't allow for much on-the-job learning.
23. DL Hall, Orioles
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: 3-8, 4.48 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 84 1/3 IP, 50 BB, 137 K
Major-league stats: 1-1, 5.93 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 13 2/3 IP, 6 BB, 19 K
Owner of a 14.6 K/9 rate over his minor-league career, Hall has the sort of upside you don't quit on even as it's looking increasingly likely he'll have to transition to the bullpen. His fastball is a true 80-grade pitch, which is the most valuable attribute a pitcher can have, but his control has shown no real improvement and he's frequently plagued by injuries.
24. Gordon Graceffo, Cardinals
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2022: High-A, Double-A
Minor-league stats: 10-6, 2.97 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 139 1/3 IP, 28 BB, 139 K
Graceffo became a name-brand prospect early in 2022 thanks to a scintillating start at High-A, where he compiled a 0.99 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 in eight turns. A jump in velocity helped account for the dominance, but the strikeout rate took a noticeable step back with his move up to Double-A. More than his ceiling, he stands out for his floor, his pinpoint control and sturdy build making him a surefire starter.
25. Luis Ortiz, Pirates
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 5-9, 4.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 124 1/3 IP, 38 BB, 138 K
Major-league stats: 0-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 16 IP, 10 BB, 17 K
Ortiz's stuff jumps out at you when you watch him, with his fastballs (both a two-seamer and four-seamer) approaching triple digits and his slider inviting futile swings. It's not the fullest arsenal, but it should play in the modern game. He had a 2.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 in the final six starts before his promotion, and his overall minor-league line appears to have been skewed by some bad home run luck.
26. Ken Waldichuk, Athletics
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Double-A, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 6-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 95 IP, 36 BB, 137 K
Major-league stats: 2-2, 4.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 34 2/3 IP, 10 BB, 33 K
Waldichuk is a curious sort of prospect who forced himself onto rank lists like this one purely through his performance -- more specifically, his 13.2 K/9 in the minors the past two years. He partly succeeds on his funky left-handed delivery, one that hides the ball well before slinging it in from a low angle, though his fastball isn't lacking in velocity nor his slider in sweepiness.
27. Cody Morris, Guardians
Age (on opening day): 26
Where he played in 2022: Rookie, Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 0-0, 1.69 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 21 1/3 IP, 6 BB, 39 K
Major-league stats: 1-2, 2.28 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 23 2/3 IP, 12 BB, 23 K
Morris makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills since no one else seems to notice how he's eviscerated the upper levels of the minors with a 1.64 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 14.4 K/9 the past two years. Granted, a shoulder strain cost him the first two-thirds of last season, but the Guardians basically let him rehab at big-league level and he responded with a swinging-strike rate on par with Carlos Rodon.
28. Hayden Wesneski, Cubs
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 6-9, 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 110 1/3 IP, 36 BB, 106 K
Major-league stats: 3-2, 2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 33 IP, 7 BB, 33 K
Wesneski's measurables don't scream greatness, his velocity and strikeout numbers clocking in as average, but he meets the even more critical threshold of knowing what to do with what he has. He showed it with an impressive six-appearance trial to end last season, churning through innings with a five-pitch arsenal that he keeps down in the zone to induce weak grounders.
29. Kyle Muller, Athletics
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 6-8, 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 134 2/3 IP, 40 BB, 159 K
Major-league stats: 1-1, 8.03 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 12 1/3 IP, 8 BB, 12 K
Now 25 and just an inning shy of losing prospect status, the fatigue is setting in for Muller, who kept getting passed over for the latest flavor of the week in the Braves organization. Now with the Athletics, he's favored for a rotation spot and is coming off a season in which he finally got the walks under control, allowing his high-spin fastball and high-whiff slider to play up.
30. Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks
Age (on opening day): 25
Where he played in 2022: Triple-A, majors
Minor-league stats: 10-5, 5.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 136 IP, 47 BB, 128 K
Major-league stats: 1-1, 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 18 1/3 IP, 6 BB, 16 K
As with Jameson, Nelson's nightmarish performance at Triple-A Reno was immediately redeemed by him shutting down the Padres and Dodgers in his first two starts. He doesn't have as much to work with as Jameson and was overly reliant on his fastball in his debut, throwing it 70 percent of the time. His secondaries may need more seasoning, but he's already made big strides since converting to pitching full-time in 2019.
