One of the questions you'll have to answer when preparing to draft your Fantasy Baseball team this season is whether you want to be one of the four or five players who invests an early-round pick on a first baseman. With Freddie Freeman likely to go off the board in the first round, Brycer Harper and Matt Olson likely second-round picks, and Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. likely to be off the board by the end of the third, close to half the league is going to spend one of their most valuable picks on the position.
That's not a bad strategy, by any means – I mean, look at those names! Those are some of the best hitters in baseball right now, with elite upside in at least three categories on the table for all five of them. But there's an opportunity cost to making those investments, especially at a position where we'll probably have at least one, and perhaps multiple 30-homer players with an ADP north of 150.
Investing in one of those early-round 1B might mean you're passing on a true ace starting pitcher, or one of the difference makers in the outfield or at second base, positions that get thin a lot quicker than at first base. Having Alonso and his locked-in 40 homers isn't a bad thing, but when you start comparing the first baseman available in the mid-to-late rounds like Rhys Hoskins, Vinnie Pasquantino, or Christian Encarnacion-Strand to some of the outfielders in the same range – Masataka Yoshida, Brandon Nimmo, and Chas McCormick, to name a few – you can start to see why fading those early 1B might be the smart play.
Figuring out how you want to approach those early-round first basemen is going to be one of the most important pivot points for every Fantasy drafter this season. The good news is, there really isn't a wrong choice you can make, given both how good those hitters are and how deep the position is.
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Consensus Rankings
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There's exactly one knock on Freeman: He's 34. Though you couldn't tell from watching him play in 2023, as he had one of his best seasons yet, including a league-high 59 doubles and a career-high (by 10!) 23 steals. A step back wouldn't be unexpected, but he also has plenty of room to take a step back and still be an elite Fantasy option – he was the No. 3 player in Roto leagues last year.
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Olson is another player I wouldn't be surprised to see take a step back in 2024 – in fact, I'm expecting it, and so is pretty much else. Of course, he was the No. 2 player in Fantasy last season, so that isn't saying much. He's an elite source of power, whether he hits 50-plus again or settles in around the 40 range. In that Braves offense, he'll combine for 200-plus runs and RBI pretty easily, too, and probably won't hurt you in batting average, even if he isn't likely to be quite as help as he was last season. I don't love buying players coming off career years, but you're not paying full sticker price for Olson here, either.
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It's pretty easy to excuse Harper's down 2023, seeing as he was coming off Tommy John surgery, returned earlier than expected, and was learning a new position. By August, he looked like himself, hitting .299/.425/.641 over his final 53 games and then hitting five homers in 13 games in the playoffs. Harper's quality of contact metrics remained elite, and the late-season power breakout suggests he should be his typically elite self in 2024, with production spread across all five categories. The last time we saw him fully healthy? He won an MVP and was a top-10 player in Fantasy.
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The BABIP Gods turned against Alonso last season, as his .205 BABIP was the lowest of his career by more than 30 points. His expected batting average based on quality of contact metrics from BaseballSavant.com suggest he probably deserved more like a .246 mark. That's a flaw in his game, to be sure, but a .245 average is pretty easy to stomach when it comes with 46 homers and 210 combined runs and RBI. If Alonso and Olson give you nearly identical results, I wouldn't be at all surprised.
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Guerrero still hits the ball about as hard as anyone, but the results since his 2021 breakthrough continue to be underwhelming. However, there are reasons to believe 2024 could be his best season since. His expected batting average (.294) and expected slugging percentage (.499) were both his best since that 2021 season, as he started elevating the ball more, exactly what we've been hoping he would do. The surface level numbers were disappointing, but a bounceback season from Guerrero wouldn't be particularly surprising from a player who has shown a ceiling about as high as any hitters'.
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Seeing as Bellinger was still unsigned well into Spring Training, it seems like the people running MLB teams don't know what to make of his big 2023 campaign either. On the surface, it was a return to, if not quite his MVP levels, certainly the upper echelon of Fantasy players, as Bellinger finished as the No. 12 player in Roto in 2023. His underlying numbers don't come close to matching his actual performance, and unlike for teams who were considering signing Bellinger this offseason, his defense won't help make up for a return to 2022 levels of production in Fantasy. There's clearly upside, but he might be one of the most high-variance "established" players in the game entering 2024.
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Goldschmidt took a big step back in 2023, and when that happens with a player in his mid-30s, we tend to assume that decline is irreversible. Except we've already seen Goldschmidt defy the odds, bouncing back from an underwhelming age-31 season in 2021 to return to the ranks of the Fantasy elite in 2021 and 2022. His quality of contact metrics looked awfully similar in 2022 and 2023, so the surface-level decline may not be as dramatic as it appeared. On the other hand, can we really expect a 36-year-old to bounce back again? It simply may be asking too much. The more important question is whether he can put off further regression now that he's squarely in his mid-30s.
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Over the past two seasons, only four players have more home runs and RBI than Walker, and Walker's ADP is lower than all of them. Sure, he won't be much help in batting average (.250 over the past two seasons), but he chipped in a surprising 11 steals last season, so there's legit four-category value here. Walker isn't a superstar, but he might be one of the most undervalued players at the position right now. Pencil in 30 homers and 180-plus RBI and runs in an improving lineup.
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The Red Sox were hesitant to trust Casas as an everyday player early last season, but by the All-Star break, he had forced their hands – between the start of the second half and the shoulder injury that ended his season in mid-September, Casas started 49 of 56 games, hitting .317/.417/.617 with a 45-homer pace, looking every bit like the elite young power hitter he was billed as during his prospect days. His 32% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers is one potential red flag, but his .347 expected wOBA against them suggests that he still hits the ball with enough authority to overcome that. The arrow is clearly pointing up for Casas, who already looks like a 30-homer bat with a full-time role – and that's certainly not the ceiling.
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The ironic thing about Diaz's power breakout in 2023 is that he actually hit the ball on the ground slightly more than he had in 2022. However, he also hit line drives and fly balls more often, because he optimized his swing to cut out more of the wasted infield fly balls and weak pop ups that almost always turn into outs. Given how hard he has always hit the ball, that small change led to big improvements in production for Diaz. He might have played a bit over his head, with a .402 wOBA that outstripped his .384 actual mark. Even if he does take a bit of a step back, however, there's plenty of room for Diaz to regress and still be a very good Fantasy option, even if a 15-home first baseman is a weird fit in most Fantasy lineups.
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Patience pays off. Torkelson was largely written off for Fantasy when he had a .711 OPS at the All-Star break, but his underlying numbers suggested he deserved much better production, and that proved prescient. Torkelson hit .238/.318/.498 with 19 homers in 72 games after the All-Star break, surely helping plenty of you make late charges up the Fantasy standings. The batting average remained pretty disappointing, but a .254 xBA suggests there should be plenty of room for improvement there. Torkelson's home park will never do him any favors, but he hits the ball consistently hard, doesn't strike out too much, and has a lineup that figures to keep getting better around him. There may not be much separating him from someone like Walker at this point, even if he's a bit less of a sure thing.
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Naylor feels like one of the more underrated Fantasy assets around right now. His perception is hurt by the fact that he's never played more than 122 games, with an oblique injury causing him 33 games last summer – though the fact that he came back from that and hit .315/.381/.446 in September after that is a pretty good sign, in my eyes. Naylor may not have a 30-homer ceiling, but he looks like a safe bet for batting average, and his 162-game pace over the past two seasons is 117 RBI, thanks to a contact- and line-drive-heavy approach that should continue to help him become a standout in that category. He'll chip in a few steals, too. Add it all up, and Naylor looks like a very productive player and one of the best values in Fantasy.
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Don't Forget About ...
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From a pure talent standpoint, Steer certainly feels like a step down from the rest of the No. 1 first basemen. His .331 expected wOBA in 2023 wasn't bad, per se, but it's a lot closer to average than what we're typically looking for from top-100 pick at this position. Steer benefits from multi-position eligibility (3B and OF, both of which are shallower than 1B), from valuable out-of-position speed, and from his home park, which helps maximize Steer's middling raw power. You can poke holes in his profile from a number of directions – the home park is maybe the biggest concern for me, given how likely the Reds seem to make a trade from their surplus of corner options – but as things stand, Steer's 2023 season looks pretty repeatable, even if there might not be a ton of room to grow from there.
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Pasquantino was one of the most-hyped players in Fantasy this time last year, but some underwhelming surface-level numbers before a season-ending torn labrum have rightly depressed his price. I'll happily buy the dip on a guy who figures to be a 25-30 homer threat without sacrificing much in terms of batting average. His home park may hold his production back, and a middling (at best) Royals lineup may hold his counting stats back, but there's still room for 180-plus RBI and runs, and an overall profile that may not look that much different from what someone like Guerrero manages.
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Assuming the torn ACL that ended his season in spring training is fully healed, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Hoskins at this point. From 2018 through 2022, he hit between .245 and .247 in four of five seasons, while averaging 34 homers, 93 runs, and 94 RBI per 162 games. He probably gets a bit of a downgrade in park and (especially) lineup with the move to Milwaukee, but it's not like either are a bad place for a power hitter. 30-ish homers, healthy run and RBI numbers and a batting average that won't kill you at an ADP outside the top 200? I'll take it.
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Encarnacion-Strand probably won't bring as much speed to the table as his teammate, Steer, but he might be the better hitter of the two. Certainly in terms of raw power, CES grades out comfortably ahead, and he put that on display as a rookie, ranking in the 77th percentile in max exit velocity and well above average in hard-hit hit rate, average exit velocity, and any other measure you want to use. There are real questions about the plate discipline, swing decisions, and swing-and-miss in Encarnacion-Strand's game, but he's overcome them throughout the minors and held his own in the majors. And with Cincy's roster suddenly looking a lot less crowded after Noelvi Marte's suspension and TJ Friedl's wrist injury this spring, the runway is clear for a breakout season.
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If you want a model for how to maximize below average raw power, you could do a lot worse than replicating Paredes' swing. Despite ranking in the 13th percentile in average exit velocity, Paredes clubbed 31 homers in just 571 trips to the plate last season, thanks to a swing geared to generating batted balls in the air down the left field line. The downsides of that approach are obvious – no player hit infield fly balls more regularly than Paredes did last season, making his .257 BABIP more than earned. Paredes' is dancing on a knife's edge with this approach – he was a Fantasy afterthought despite 20 homers in 2022 because he hit .205 – but if he can keep this trick going, he's going to remain a viable starter. The nice thing is, he's one of the cheapest 30-homer threats around right now.
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Sleeper
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Schanuel's is a weird profile -- he's 1B-only player who brings little power to the table as a hitter -- he had just two homers in 51 games after being drafted last year, and his quality-of-contact metrics suggest there wasn't a ton of bad luck dragging him down. However, Schanuel made the majors just a few months after being the No. 11 pick in the draft, and he managed more walks (20) than strikeouts (19) in 29 games with the Angels. He's going to hit second to open the season ahead of Mike Trout, and if he can hit .275 again, he's going to be on base constantly. It's an unorthodox profile, but Schanuel could make a Brandon Nimmo-esque impact as a corner infielder.
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Breakout
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Pasquantino makes a ton of contact and has a swing optimized to maximize his raw power, but this isn't an Isaac Paredes situation – Pasquantino has shown solidly plus raw power in the majors. The recovery from torn labrum surgery casts a significant shadow on his profile right now, and it's possible he's just never the same guy again. But Pasquantino's pre-injury profile was pushing him close to the top-100 range in drafts this time last year, and he comes at a steep discount already. There's some risk here, but there's also 30-homer upside with a very useful batting average – think early-career Anthony Rizzo, minus some of the speed.
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Bust
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Bellinger's quality of contact metrics did not support the surface level numbers at all last season – his 43-point gap between his expected wOBA of .327 and his actual mark of .370 was the sixth-largest in baseball. Bellinger's athleticism and pull-oriented swing could help him outrun those metrics moving forward, but it wasn't really a skill he had ever shown before 2023. I think expecting 20-20 from Bellinger is reasonable, but getting back to the heights of 2023? It's certainly not impossible, but there's a reason no team was willing to pull the trigger on the massive contract Bellinger is looking for this offseason.
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2023 Draft Prep
First Base Top Prospects
From Scott White's 2024 Top-100 prospects column.
1. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2023: Rookie, Triple-A
Minor-league stats: .237 BA (351 AB), 17 HR, .802 OPS, 55 BB, 80 K
Manzardo fell well short of the .327 batting average and 1.043 OPS that he delivered in 2022, but a deeper look at the numbers reveals the same stellar plate discipline, optimal launch angle and high-end exit velocities that fueled that breakout. He's a Statcast darling with a Vinnie Pasquantino-like skill set, and his strong AFL showing (.272 bating average, .905 OPS in 22 games) is closer to what you can expect moving forward.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
2. Xavier Isaac, 1B, Rays
Age (on opening day): 20
Where he played in 2023: Low-A, High-A
Minor-league stats: .285 BA (361 AB), 19 HR, 12 SB, .916 OPS, 64 BB, 92 K
That the Rays, a team that emphasizes versatility like no other, were willing to make a true first baseman their first-round pick in 2022 says the world of Isaac's upside, and the sizeable slugger began to deliver on that upside in his first full professional season, slashing .302/.399/.577 from May 1 on. He's working hard to manage his weight, too, having dropped 20-30 pounds last year.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: don't count on it
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3. Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Angels
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2023: Rookie, Low-A, Double-A, majors
Minor-league stats: .365 BA (74 AB), 1 HR, 4 2B, .992 OPS, 21 BB, 10 K
Major-league stats: .275 BA (109 AB), 1 HR, 3 2B, .732, 20 BB, 19 K
Schanuel made it to the majors a mere 40 days after being drafted and managed to reach base at a .402 clip, living up to the stellar plate discipline he showed in both college and the minors. But how much value can Dave Magadan have in the modern game? There's simply no power to be found here, not without a drastic change in approach, and that's an especially big problem at first base.
Scott's 2024 Fantasy impact: pencil him in