2026 Fantasy Baseball Survey: Must-have players, pitcher breakouts, prospects and power and speed specialists

You've heard just about everything I have to say about this year's draft pool. Now is when I hold up a mirror and reveal the things that you're saying.

How? Through a survey, of course. Below are eight questions that I submitted to my Twitter (yes, I'm still calling it that) and Facebook followers, along with a final tally of their responses. They cover a broad range of topics and allow for a wide variety of responses, yet the respondents arrive at a clear consensus in most every case.

One surprising takeaway for me is that spring training weighs heavily on the minds of many. It's most evident, in fact, with this first question.

Who's the one player you have to have this year?

Top three last year: Robbie Ray (13), Bo Bichette (12), tie - Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg (11)

What have you done for me lately, huh? Between Royals camp and the World Baseball Classic, Jac Caglianone has been one of the most buzzed-about players this spring, not only performing well but doing so with the same outlier exit velocities that defined his time in the minors, where he hit 20 homers in just 66 games last year while slashing .337/.408/.617.

Clearly, the fervor over him is peaking, but what's most interesting to me about these results is how much the fervor has died down for Ben Rice and Konnor Griffin. The former was the talk of the offseason, getting pushed into Round 2 in some early NFBC drafts. The latter was the talk of early spring training, when he homered twice in his third game to make his chances of claiming a roster spot at age 19 all the more palpable. Neither got enough votes to appear on this graphic, even, and yet neither player's circumstances have changed, really. Rice is still a catcher-eligible first baseman whose underlying numbers hint of MVP-caliber upside, and Griffin is still the top prospect in baseball, a potential five-category monster. It's genuinely stunning to me how both have become old news before the biggest draft weekend of the year even arrives.

When I say "have to have," the justifications were entirely up to the respondents and ranged from how affordable the players were to how versatile they were. It's always curious to me how many respond with early-rounders like Ronald Acuna and Junior Caminero. You can only have so much say over whether or not you get them.

Received three votes: Ozzie Albies, ATL; Bubba Chandler, PIT; Tatsuya Imai, HOU; Hunter Goodman, COL; Carter Jensen, KC; Ivan Herrera, STL; Chase DeLauter, CLE; Bo Bichette, TOR; Shohei Ohtani, LAD; Jazz Chisholm, NYY; Wilyer Abreu, BOS; Michael Busch, CHC; Daulton Varsho, TOR; Luke Keaschall, MIN; Chase Burns, CIN; Cole Ragans, KC

My choice: JJ Wetherholt, I guess?

Which player has most opened your eyes this spring?

Top three last year: New question, so not applicable

Bunch of liars, these people. From Feb. 1 through Feb. 20, Jac Caglianone was only the 205th player drafted on average. There was no buzz for him, just some lingering curiosity. The headlines he's generated this spring are what have propelled him to being the 160th player drafted over the past week, so if he's the respondents' top choice for player they have to have, he should also be their top choice for spring training riser.

But there is the Matt McLain of it all. The Reds' second baseman has made a similar jump in the rankings over that same span of time with a spring training reminiscent of his incredible rookie showing in 2023, before the shoulder surgery that cost him the following year. Whether or not the reports of him learning to lay off sliders down and away go far enough in explaining his spring surge, it's giving people something to dream on at a position with so little.

The rest of these players form such a wide spectrum. Ronald Acuna was always a surefire first-rounder, but his renewed willingness to run this spring has made him a consensus top-six pick. Mick Abel and Matthew Liberatore weren't in the conversation to be drafted prior to spring training but have put themselves there with some massive swing-and-miss numbers. Carlos Lagrange, Didier Fuentes and Andrew Fischer still have basically no chance of making the team, but they're names to file away for a later date.

I should note that some respondents interpreted this question in a negative way (not at all what I intended), and their responses included Spencer Strider, Andrew Painter and James Wood.

Received two votes: Roman Anthony, BOS; Sam Antonacci, CHW; Joshua Baez, STL; Carson Benge, NYM; Owen Caissie, MIA; Jarren Duran, BOS; Jhostynxon Garcia, PIT; Konnor Griffin, PIT; Carter Jensen, KC; Wyatt Langford, TEX; Kodai Senga, NYM; Brice Turang, MIL; JJ Wetherholt, STL;; Cole Young, SEA

My choice: Jac Caglianone

Which starting pitcher is the best bet to break out?

Top three last year: Gavin Williams (20), Spencer Schwellenbach (17), Cristopher Sanchez (10)

You can see that last year's respondents pretty much nailed this one, with Williams, Schwellenbach and Sanchez (particularly Sanchez) all breaking out to some degree. This year is basically a two-horse race between Eury Perez and Chase Burns, which are both good horses to back. Burns showed huge strikeout ability as a rookie last season and clearly has ace potential, but the Reds have been noncommittal about his rotation status and even mentioned that he was having some range of motion issues with his arm. It doesn't seem as serious as it sounds, but it's reason enough to give the edge to Perez, who basically was an ace as a rookie in 2023. His return from Tommy John surgery last year hit a couple speed bumps, but he finished strong and has been lights-out this spring. If I went cheap at starting pitcher, I could rationalize taking him as my ace.

The same is perhaps even more true for Kyle Bradish, who I would say still has breakout potential even though he finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2023, a year before needing Tommy John surgery. Most didn't regard him as quite an ace at the time, though, because of an underwhelming strikeout rate, but he had 13.2 K/9 in his six starts back from the surgery last year.

Though I recognize the upside for Edward Cabrera and MacKenzie Gore, I would say both are far from safe bets to break out, given how erratic they've been in past years, not to mention their general issues with strike-throwing. And while I love Bubba Chandler's upside, believing him to be the top pitching prospect at the moment, his control issues this spring have given me some pause.

Received four votes: Shane Baz, BAL; Matthew Liberatore, STL; Nolan McLean, NYM; Jacob Misiorowski, MIL; Ryan Pepiot, TB; Trevor Rogers, BAL

My choice: Kyle Bradish, or Eury Perez if you don't count him

Which early-rounder do you want nothing to do with?

Top three last year: Rafael Devers (14), Jazz Chisholm (12), Julio Rodriguez (11)

I mean, yeah, both Cal Raleigh and Pete Crow-Armstrong are reasonable choices given their unfamiliar production and propensity for strikeouts, but I'll admit I haven't been consciously avoiding either. Well, maybe Crow-Armstrong in points leagues because he's just so ill-suited for that format, but in Rotisserie, I've found that if I haven't addressed outfield or stolen bases by Round 3, he's the obvious choice to take. As for Raleigh, I've made the case elsewhere that we only need him to deliver 75 percent of last year's production to justify his price tag, and my general guideline when gauging where to draft similar one-hit wonders is 80 percent.

I'm more aligned with the third and fourth names on this list. Part of me thinks too much is being made of Nick Kurtz's 31 percent strikeout rate last year, just given how easily he's handled every challenge thrown at him so far as a professional, but that next tier of first basemen -- the Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Freddie Freeman and Josh Naylor one -- is so large and so undervalued, in my opinion, that there's no reason to take on additional risk in Round 2. And then there's James Wood, whose second-half collapse mirrors Crow-Armstrong's but with the added wrinkle that his strikeout rate ballooned to 39 percent. He also isn't the base-stealer Crow-Armstrong is, making him less deserving of a gamble.

Received three votes: Roman Anthony, BOS; Garrett Crochet, BOS; Freddie Freeman, LAD; Kyle Schwarber, PHI

My choice: James Wood

Who's your go-to for cheap power?

Top three last year: Jorge Soler (16), Jake Burger (14), Brandon Lowe (12) 

Look at Burger claiming the second spot for a second straight year. He actually wasn't that cheap last year, being drafted 113th on average, but boy is he this year, dropping outside of the top 250. The preferred choice for me, though, is Daulton Varsho, who enjoyed a 3 mph increase in both his average and max exit velocity last year and ended up homering 20 times in 71 games. That's a 162-game pace of 46, by the way, and while I think people were overlooking it at first because 20 is a familiar total for Varsho, this survey would suggest that's not the case anymore.

Jac Caglianone makes another appearance here, and deservedly so since power figures to be his carrying tool. Only question is whether he still qualifies as "cheap." I definitely wouldn't classify Jo Adell and Taylor Ward as cheap and would actually think Ward's home run total may end up disappointing for the amount you pay for him. Max Muncy is a good call, particularly at a position as weak as third base, though some are fearful of diminished playing time. Isaac Paredes is another third baseman with playing-time concerns who would be an appropriate choice here.

Received three votes: Addison Barger, TOR; Michael Busch, CHC; Kerry Carpenter, DET; Carter Jensen, KC; Tyler O'Neill, BAL; Isaac Paredes, HOU

My choice: Daulton Varsho

Who's your go-to for cheap speed?

Top three last year: Victor Robles (25), Xavier Edwards (18), Nico Hoerner (9)

Sure, Jose Caballero figures to steal a bunch of bases, if the past couple years are any indication, but at what cost? He provides so little of anything else, even as the projected fill-in for Anthony Volpe to begin the year, that I'm not sure the stolen bases are worth pursuing. Frankly, it's an easy enough category to fill these days that you shouldn't need to resort to such extreme measures unless you were just outrageously neglectful.

I much prefer Justin Crawford, the rookie, because he was also a batting average standout in the minors and has the sort of batted-ball profile to suggest it will continue. Xavier Edwards likewise has the added benefit of batting average, though it may be a stretch to call him "cheap." It's even more so for Josh Naylor and Luke Keaschall, and I think those responses are emblematic of the idea that you don't need to dig so deep for stolen bases anymore, as I've already pointed out. Doing so ends up conceding too much, which is evident not just with Caballero but also Victor Scott II and Nasim Nunez.

Received two votes: Andres Gimenez, TOR; Steven Kwan, CLE; Jordan Lawlar, ARI; Otto Lopez, MIA; Jake McCarthy, COL; Luis Robert, NYM; Bryson Stott, PHI

My choice: Justin Crawford

Which closer are you most fearful will lose his job?

Top three last year: Robert Suarez (20), David Bednar (13), Alexis Diaz (12)

Everyone was so sure last year that Suarez wasn't going to keep his job, and now everyone is so sure that he's going to take someone else's job. Well, where has that certainty gotten you, huh? Look, I share in the concerns over Carlos Estevez. The odds of him repeating as a top-flight closer (league-leading 42 saves last year) already seemed long given that his strikeout numbers were so bad, but now that his fastball is down 7 mph this spring, it's hard to see how he survives even a week. Supposedly, his velocity was down quite a bit last spring as well, and the Royals aren't exactly overflowing with quality alternatives. Sometimes bad closers do manage to hold onto the job all year, but if you're going to pick one to lose it, Estevez makes the most sense.

The concerns over Raisel Iglesias, though, are probably overblown. Sure, he's now backed up by Suarez, an All-Star closer himself, which leaves him little margin for error, but Iglesias' career to this point contains very little error. A brief stretch last June represented maybe the first time he was removed from the closer role on merit, but once he ditched his slider and leaned into his other pitches more, he was dominant again, delivering a 1.25 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 over his final 45 appearances. Anything can happen, I suppose, but I wouldn't count on Iglesias losing his job.

Among the others listed here, I'd be most concerned about Trevor Megill, who may lose the closer role before he even steps foot on the mound if the Brewers opt for Abner Uribe instead, and Emilio Pagan, who should be too homer-prone for Great American Ball Park but somehow made it work last year.

Received two votes: Aroldis Chapman, BOS; Ryan Helsley, BAL; Dennis Santana, PIT

My choice: Carlos Estevez

Which prospect will have the biggest impact this year?

Top three last year: Matt Shaw (22), Dylan Crews (16), Jackson Jobe (12)

This year is shaping up to be a banner one for prospects, so much that Trey Yesavage -- a strikeout-happy pitcher who's already proven himself on the biggest possible stage -- could only garner one response of the 157 total. Of course, there may have been some confusion over who actually qualifies as a prospect. Yesavage and Nolan McLean, who got only 10 votes, have enjoyed so much success already that some respondents may not even think of them as prospects anymore. But both technically qualify while Chase Burns, whose votes I discarded, does not.

I can't say for sure that Yesavage and McLean were oversights because the quantity and quality of hitting prospects at the precipice of the majors right now is overwhelming. Konnor Griffin is pushing to be the first 19-year-old on an opening day roster since Ken Griffey Jr. He's drafted the highest among players who haven't debuted yet and is on another level in terms of overall ceiling, which makes it a little surprising that both Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt beat him out here. Still, they're consensus top-five prospects in their own right and have an easier "in," Wetherholt especially.

Carson Benge is in the conversation as not only the top outfield prospect in baseball but also the Mets' opening day right fielder, and he barely got any attention here. Same for Justin Crawford, who has the Phillies' center field job all but locked up and offers speed and batting average at a point in the draft when Rotisserie players are desperate for it. Factor in catchers Samuel Basallo and Carter Jensen, who both offer considerable power, and comparing this year's responses to last year's is like night and day. The most impactful to get a vote then was probably Roman Anthony (who placed fifth with eight votes), and he didn't arrive until June.

Received two votes: Owen Caissie, MIA; Charlie Condon, COL; Bryce Eldridge, SF; Robby Snelling, MIA

My choice: Nolan McLean