No one pick can win your Fantasy Baseball league, but hitting on your late-round sleepers is a sure-fire way to get a leg up on the competition. Last season, for example, if you happened to take a late-round flier on underhyped Dodgers outfielder James Outman or Rockies post-hype sleeper Nolan Jones, there's a pretty good chance you found yourself playing in important games in September.
We're looking for this year's versions today, with a focus on the senior circuit here. These are the best late-round sleepers for every NL team in 2024 with an ADP of 350 or lower. You can also find my complete list of the best AL sleepers to help with identifying players who are worth a look, especially in deeper leagues.
Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS -- ADP: 355.07
Lawlar probably doesn't have a spot in the Opening Day lineup, but given Geraldo Perdomo's second-half struggles, it might not take long for him to get another shot. He has 24 homers and 38 steals in 125 games between Double-A and Triple-A and is still just 21 as of Opening Day. Don't forget about him.
Braves: Reynaldo Lopez, P -- ADP: 561.41
Lopez has transformed himself into something of a relief ace, and the Braves are going to see if he can keep up the success while transitioning back to a starting role. Lopez has a 3.14 ERA and 1.064 ERA with 26.6% strikeout rate over the past three seasons, and should be one of your late-round targets in every H2H points league as a SPaRP.
Cubs: Michael Busch, 3B -- ADP: 469.86
I'm surprised Busch is going this late at this point. There's playing time risk even after the trade to Chicago, but we're talking about a guy who hit .323/.431/.618 in Triple-A last season and is still Scott White's No. 32 prospect entering the season. He should get drafted in nearly all leagues.
Reds: Frankie Montas, P -- ADP: 401.08
Montas has barely pitched since the summer of 2022 when he started dealing with shoulder injuries, but he got his fastball up to 97 mph in his spring debut, a good sign after he sat 93-94 in his only appearance at the end of last season. Montas is a long shot, but he was a borderline ace in 2021 and 2022 before the injuries, and he's got that SPaRP eligibility that makes him an excellent late-round target in H2H leagues.
Rockies: Brenton Doyle, OF -- ADP: 535.19
Doyle is a Gold Glove winner at center field. He's got enough pop and speed to be a useful Fantasy option playing half his games in Coors Field if he can just manage to get his strikeout rate down below 30% – he was at 35% last season.
Dodgers: James Paxton, P -- ADP: 403.6
How unlikely is it that Paxton stays healthy? Well, he had to restructure his deal with the Dodgers before signing it because of unspecified issues during his physical. But he also had a three-month stretch last season with a 3.34 ERA and nearly six strikeouts per start. When he's out there, he's probably going to be pretty useful.
Marlins: A.J. Puk, P -- ADP: 483.13
Puk hasn't thrown more than 70 innings in a season since 2017, but the Marlins are going to give him a chance to crack the rotation after a strong couple seasons out of the bullpen. He added a cutter and a splitter to what was an effective two-pitch arsenal last season, and there's plenty of upside, even if I don't give this experiment a particularly high chance of working out.
Brewers: DL Hall, P -- ADP: 466.63
Hall struck out Christian Yelich and Rhys Hoskins in consecutive at-bats in his first live reps against hitters this spring, and earned rave reviews from his new team in their first look at him. Walks have been a gigantic issue for Hall – 13.4% walk rate in his career in the minors – but he's also been a strikeout machine. Any improvement in his command could carry with it simply gigantic upside.
Mets: Brett Baty, 3B -- ADP: 425.8
Baty has big raw power and hasn't struck out an alarming amount in the minors, but he's also never hit more than 21 homers in a season because his swing just isn't optimized – he had a 50.2% groundball rate last season and didn't hit it to the pull side often enough. He may never be able fix those issues, but if he does, there's still a star-level outcome here.
Phillies: Orion Kerkering, P -- ADP: 494.84
If the Phillies decide they prefer to have the left-handed Jose Alvarado available in a more flexible role, Kerkering absolutely has closer-level stuff. He has struck out 37% of hitters since turning pro, led by a slider that might legitimately be one of the best in baseball already. An electric closer candidate on a 90-win team seems like a pretty cool way to spend a last-round pick, no?
Pirates: Roansy Contreras, P -- ADP: 707.1
Contreras' stuff has always seemed like it should lead to more strikeouts than it has, and the major problem last year was diminished velocity. He was up about 1 mph on his heater in his spring debut, which was a good start. He's mostly been very good in the minors, and now he has to figure out how to translate that to the majors. In deeper leagues, he's a decent dice roll.
Padres: Randy Vasquez, P -- ADP: 659.21
Vasquez was the less heralded of the two prospects the Padres got for Juan Soto, and he's getting a big park upgrade out of the deal. He has struggled a bit in the upper minors since his 2021 breakout, especially with his command, but there's still a lot to like here, with a high-spin, mid-90s fastball, and a couple of good breaking balls. It might take some tweaking of the pitch mix, but Vasquez's arsenal goes six pitches deep, which is a good starting point.
Giants: Marco Luciano, SS -- ADP: 566.85
Luciano's got a strong tool kit to build off, starting with an average exit velocity that would have ranked 14th in baseball last season. It was in a small sample, but it was also consistent with the skill set he's always shown. The problem is, he still has huge swing-and-miss issues, and hit .223 with a 31.3% strikeout rate in the minors last season. Still, the Giants are going to give him a chance to make the team this spring, and there's a Willy Adames-esque ceiling if he makes some adjustments.
Cardinals: Ivan Herrera, C -- ADP: 557.96
The Cardinals are surprisingly short on candidates for this exercise, so we're going with a backup catcher, albeit one who has hit .282/.416/.450 with 16 homers and 16 steals in 149 games at Triple-A. Willson Contreras will see his share of time at DH, so Herrera could potential get to, say 400 PA if everything breaks right, and he might be capable of a 10-10 season if that were to happen.
Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF -- ADP: 573.21
Because Wyatt Langford was so absurdly dominant, I think Crews has gotten kind of overlooked. He didn't move quite as quickly as Langford, but Crews made it to Double-A just a few months after the Nationals made him the No. 2 pick in the draft. He probably needs some more time in the high minors than Langford, but he's a legitimate five-tool prospect who could force his way to the majors before the summer.
