MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers-Press Conference
Imagn Images

14 days until Opening Day … 

We're really in the home stretch here, and I'm going to be spending nearly every evening between now and March 25 drafting in one league or another. That kicks off today with the second annual Mock Draft Megastream Marathon on the Fantasy Baseball Today YouTube channel, beginning at 3:30 pm!

Frank Stampfl, Scott White, and I will be live all day and into the evening until we finish four drafts, one each at CBS, Yahoo, ESPN, and the NFBC platform. We'll try to highlight the key distinctions between each site's ADP and rules, and how to best handle each one, so no matter where you're drafting this season, we're here to help. And we'll be joined by some of the sharpest Fantasy analysts and players around to help us get through all four drafts, including Vlad Sedler, Joe Orrico, and Ariel Cohen. Head here to set a notification for when we go live! 

I've also got my Tout Wars H2H points auction this Sunday, plus a couple of FBT listener leagues to draft before Opening Day, another expert's league, plus my last remaining home league the night before the season starts. 

This is the best time of the year for Fantasy players, and we want to make sure you're ready for Draft Day. We'll be back tomorrow with the Draft Day Cheat Sheet to make sure you have everything you need to put a winning team together, but today, we're taking another look into ADP. 

This time, we're looking at FantasyPros.com's consensus ADP and highlighting my favorite and least-favorite picks in every round's range. It's not hard to find players to like early on in drafts, of course, and even the players I'm fading early on have their obvious merits. But the exercise is to try to identify one player I'm actively trying to target, and one I'm avoiding at cost in each of the first 10 rounds of drafts, and that's what we've got for you today. 

Best and worst picks in every round 

First Round

Favorite Pick: Kyle Tucker, OF, Dodgers – ADP: 11.6

With the move to the Dodgers, Tucker finds himself set to bat second between Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. It's hard to imagine a better scenario, and he also gets a nice park upgrade going from Wrigley to Dodgers Stadium. He's missed a lot of time the past two seasons with injuries, but they've both been fractures that got misdiagnosed, which just doesn't seem likely to remain a recurring issue. It's hard for a player with a first-round ADP to be a "value," but I think Tucker qualifies. 

Least-Favorite Pick: Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers – ADP: 6.2

For me, it mostly comes down to this: With three viable first-round pitchers and little separating them, the worst pick is invariably going to be whichever one goes first. Usually, that is Skubal. I'm not opposed to taking a starting pitcher in the first round, and if you want one and you're picking sixth, that's your only chance. But I'd much rather buy Garrett Crochet with a 12.0 ADP than Skubal. 

Second Round

Favorite Pick: Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks – ADP 15.6

When Carroll initially suffered his fractured hamate bone, I moved him down to around 24th, mostly out of concerns that he just wouldn't get the reps he needed to get ready for the season. Well, he's already been cleared to play in Spring Training games, making his debut Wednesday as a DH. He said he didn't feel "perfect," and there is some risk that rushing back from the injury might lead to a slow start. But I trust the doctors to understand the risks better than I, and if they're already clearing Carroll to play, then it's pretty clear he's going to have enough PAs this spring to get ready for Opening Day. He should probably be back inside the top-10 at this point. 

Least-Favorite Pick: Kyle Schwarber, DH, Phillies – ADP: 19.6 

I don't dislike Schwarber as a player. But taking him with a second-round pick does introduce certain complications to your team-building strategy. Unless you play in one of those Yahoo leagues with two utility spots, you've just severely limited your flexibility in the second round of the draft. If we get 50-plus homers from him again, that won't matter. But he's almost certainly going to be one of the biggest batting average liabilities taken in the first two rounds, which means you're going to be playing catch-up the rest of the way. If you reach a point in the draft where your top player is a Util/DH-only player, you're in a bind; if you reach a point where the best player on your board is another batting average liability, you probably have to let them go. Schwarber could be worth this draft price, but the margin for error with his profile is just awfully slim. 

Third Round

Favorite Pick: Trea Turner, SS, Phillies – ADP: 27.4

The injury track record is probably what's driving Turner's price down, but I don't really think there's much doubt he's worth this kind of price. Even in a season where he missed 21 games, he was the No. 27 player in Roto leagues, thanks to his standout batting average and a return to being an elite base stealer. There probably aren't more than a couple of players capable of both a .300 average and 40 steals, and one of the other ones is Bobby Witt, a top-three pick. I'm not saying Turner is as good as Bobby Witt, but he's one of the few elite base stealers who doesn't cost you something in another position. 

Least-Favorite Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Dodgers – ADP: 24.8

Once again, it's not a problem with the player. Yamamoto is great, though with the Dodgers sticking with a six-man rotation and never letting him pitch on anything less than five days of rest (outside of literally Game 7 of the World Series), there might be a dozen pitchers with a higher ceiling. But he's a high-floor pick, and there's nothing wrong with that. He just isn't worth a borderline second-round pick, ahead of every other pitcher except that first-round trio. Yamamoto isn't my pick for the No. 4 SP, but he's a perfectly defensible choice. I just don't think the No. 4 SP should come off the board until at least the late third round.

Fourth Round

Favorite Pick: Rafael Devers, 1B, Giants – ADP: 40.2 

Devers is priced relatively fairly on the FantasyPros consensus, but he's an even better pick on some platforms – in the month of March at the NFBC, he's down to 58.8, and I got him in one draft this week at 85th overall. He's probably just a batting average liability now that he's playing half his games in San Francisco, but he still hit at a 37-homer pace in Oracle Park, so I'm not worried about the overall skill set not being worth it. Pete Alonso should go ahead of Devers, but I have them separated by more like five spots; it's more than 15 spots in ADP. 

Least-Favorite Pick: Edwin Diaz, RP, Dodgers – ADP: 44.8

I'm just not going to pick a closer in the fourth round, is what it comes down to. Diaz isn't the highest drafted closer – he goes a few picks behind Mason Miller – but he's the best example of why I don't want to pay the price. As good as Diaz is, he's been prone to pretty wild fluctuations in performance over the years, reaching a point where he actually lost his job in 2024 with the Mets for a stretch. I don't expect that to happen, but it's hardly inconceivable, and the Dodgers did demote a $70 million closer literally last season. For a guy who only really helps you in one category, this is just too high a price to pay. 

Fifth Round

Favorite Pick: Cole Ragans, SP, Royals – ADP: 51.0

My general view of the SP position this season is that there just isn't that much separating the No. 4 and the No. 12 SP. For me, that is the difference between Logan Gilbert (No. 38) and Max Fried (No. 57), with nine pitchers ranked between 20 picks. And here's the thing about Ragans: By ADP, he isn't even a top-12 SP! Last year's labrum injury is surely scaring some drafters off, and that's reasonable enough. But if we're talking upside, I'm not sure even the first-round trio eclipses what a best-case scenario from Ragans could look like. The risk is real, but so is the reward. 

Least-Favorite Pick: Freddy Peralta, SP, Mets – ADP: 56.8

And I just have Peralta in a different tier entirely. There's nothing wrong with him, but I think he's being just a bit overdrafted coming off a season where everything went right. He should still have a good home park and defense backing him up, and there's nothing wrong with a mid-3.00s ERA and 200-ish strikeouts. But it's a step back from where he was last season and a bit of a reach at a point where I think there should be another pause in SP picks after Ragans, and that tier comes off the board. 

Sixth Round

Favorite Pick: Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres – ADP: 60.2

I have Merrill ranked about 10 picks ahead of this ADP, and I certainly don't think that's the ceiling. He needs to get back to running like he did as a rookie, but I have a lot of faith in the bat – he was hitting north of .300 before a mid-June concussion derailed his season, and then he bounced back with an OPS north of .900 in September. Merrill isn't a perfect player. He makes a lot of contact, but doesn't necessarily make the best swing decisions, and the drop in steals from 16 to one as a rookie is a real issue for his ceiling. But he's also still so young – just 22 for another month plus – that I'm willing to bet on him taking a big step forward at a discount relative to last year. 

Least-Favorite Pick: George Kirby, SP, Mariners – ADP: 66.2

I'm not out on Kirby by any means. When I updated my Busts list yesterday, for instance, I didn't even really give much thought to including him. However, he's clearly a different pitcher than he was prior to 2025, and I'm just not sure what to make of that just yet. He came back from last spring's shoulder injury with a lower arm slot and without his splitter, and while we don't have arm angle data for spring, the fact that he still isn't throwing the splitter right now suggests that the arm slot drop is permanent. That's not an inherently bad thing, mind you – Kirby lost a bit of rise on his four-seamer, but he gained lateral movement across the arsenal, which helps explain the career-best strikeout rate in 2025. But it might also explain the career-high walk rate and career-worst expected wOBA on contact. He could still be worth this pick, but the truth is, I just don't know what this new version of Kirby is. He wasn't very good last season, but that was mostly because of a few poor starts. He might be an ace still, but given the uncertainty, I'd rather wait a round or two. 

Seventh Round

Favorite Pick: Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles – ADP: 80.4 

Bradish probably won't throw 180 innings this season. You know how many pitchers I feel comfortable saying will probably throw 180 innings this season? Maybe a dozen, and most of them aren't as good as Bradish probably is. He established a nice high floor with his 2023 breakout when he had a 2.83 ERA despite striking out just below a batter per inning. And now, over the past couple of years, he has flashed ridiculous upside, putting up a 2.65 ERA with 12.6 K/9 in 71.1 innings. He had Tommy John surgery in between, which is a concern, but if he stays on the mound, I fully expect Bradish to be one of the best pitchers in the league. I'd take him as a top-15 SP, and he's currently SP21. I'll take it!

Least-Favorite Pick: Jesus Luzardo, SP, Phillies – ADP: 74.8

Maybe I have some PTSD from being a Marlins fan, but it ultimately just comes down to not believing Luzardo can stay healthy. There's a bit of performance risk, of course, but it's mostly tied to health. He's had four IL stints since 2021, including a forearm strain in 2022 and an elbow issue in 2024, with a lengthy track record of arm issues before then. The Phillies don't seem too concerned, so it's not like I'm totally fading Luzardo. But we've seen such wild swings in his performance and health over the years that I'm just a big wary of being the one to take him at his price. 

Eighth Round

Favorite Pick: Bo Bichette, SS, Mets – ADP: 86.4

Forget about that "SS" in between his name and his new team – you're going to be using Bichette at third base this season. He should be eligible there roughly six games into the season, and I expect him to be one of the eight best players at the position – with a pretty easy path to a top-five finish. Bichette's move to Citi Field is a neutral park shift, but while the Mets lineup isn't as deep as the Blue Jays, hitting third behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto should put Bichette in line for a career-best in RBI. We could be talking about 110-plus RBI and a .300 average here. 

Least-Favorite Pick: Oneil Cruz, OF, Pirates – ADP: 86.8

I can see the upside, but Cruz is one of the most obvious bust risks in the whole player pool this season. He'll probably be better than last season, but are we sure that's enough to keep him in the lineup every day for the Pirates? Before you scoff at that question, consider this: Among all players with at least 350 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, only four have a worse expected wOBA than Cruz's .261 mark. On a bad team, the Pirates could live with that, but they're seemingly actually trying to win games this season, and it's not like Cruz is such a good defender that you can live with a zero in the lineup against lefties. Jake Mangum isn't a great player, but it's not unthinkable that he could provide an upgrade defensively while giving the Pirates a better chance against lefties. Cruz handles righties well enough that he won't get outright benched, but there's some real platoon risk here if he doesn't show pretty immediate improvement against lefties. That's not a top-90 pick to me. 

Ninth Round

Favorite Pick: Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins – ADP: 107.8

Ramirez is in a nice spot, where his biggest flaw as a real-life player might actually make him a better Fantasy player. So he can't catch. Can he hit? Then who cares? It's not like the Marlins have anyone better for their DH spot, so if they decide to just stick him there full-time, that's no skin off our backs – until he potentially loses catcher eligibility for 2027, but we're talking 2026 drafts, okay? He did fade in the second half, but that was also when he started stealing bases, which insulates him nicely from too much risk if the bat doesn't play. But I think it will. He has at least above-average power, and while I don't love the swing decisions he makes, he makes enough contact (and enough good contact) that I think he'll be at least passable in batting average. We could be talking about a 25-20 catcher who plays every day, what's not to love? 

Least-Favorite Pick: Spencer Strider, SP, Braves – ADP: 105.4

I don't really have to go into the details here, do I? Strider made another start Wednesday, and while the results were good (against a C-minus version of a C-minus Rays lineup), the concerns we've had all spring remain. His velocity was down relative to 2025 yet again, and you might remember that Strider was pretty bad in 2025. He just doesn't have enough else to dominate if he doesn't have a great fastball, and right now I'm not sure he even has an average fastball. I'm not saying I wouldn't draft Strider at any price this season, but it'd have to be around 50 picks cheaper than this. That's not happening. 

10th Round

Favorite Pick: Luke Keaschall, 2B, Twins – ADP 119.4

I've made no secret of my love for Keaschall. I think his floor could look something like Nico Hoerner, with 40-plus steals upside (though perhaps a little less batting average certainty). But I think the ceiling outcomes here could be pretty nutty. He showed a bit more pop in the minors, and I think his struggles to impact the ball in 2025 probably had at least a little bit to do with the fractured forearm that put him on the IL just a few days after he made it to the majors. If he can bump the raw power metrics close to average and start elevating the ball to the pull side more often like he did in the minors, I think we could see something like a .280 average, 20 homers, and 40-plus steals from the leadoff spot. There's at least a chance we're talking about Keaschall as one of the best second basemen. 

Least-Favorite Pick: Carlos Estevez, RP, Royals – ADP: 116.2

Estevez made it onto Busts 2.0 for a reason, folks. His velocity is way down this spring, and it's not like he had a huge margin for error to begin with – his 3.69 xERA was more than a run worse than his actual mark, and he's a flyball pitcher in a home park where they just moved the fences in. Estevez probably has a decent amount of job security coming off last season, but he's not exactly a dominant closer, so I don't think they'll just stick with him through thick and thin. You could still get a non-harmful ERA and plenty of saves from Estevez, but of the "sure-thing" closers this season, he feels like the one with the most clear bottom-out potential.