The quarterback preview will look a little bit different this week. The vast majority of Fantasy Football leagues are heading into the Fantasy playoffs, so I will try to give you an overview of the position for the next three weeks. There will still be Week 15 waiver wire ads below, but there will also be Week 16 stashes.
This position is the one most affected by matchups in my projections and rankings. That may tell you something about the wide range of quarterback matchups, but I think it tells you more about the small range of QB scoring. For the season, there is a 1.6 FPPG difference between QB9 (Jared Goff) and QB15 (Kyler Murray). The gap between QB16 (Geno Smith) and QB22 (Justin Herbert) is even smaller, just 0.8 FPPG. And that's in leagues that reward six points per pass touchdowns. The difference is even smaller if your league rewards four points per pass touchdown.
It should come as no surprise that 1.76 separates Baker Mayfield, my early QB8 in the projections, and Anthony Richardson, my QB20. You may think I love Mayfield and hate Richardson. It would be more accurate to say I can barely tell them apart. And you can bet that the order of those 13 quarterbacks will change a lot in the next two weeks.
With that in mind, if you don't have your longterm starter, I would suggest adding not just a Week 15 streamer but also a Week 16 streamer. I have suggestions for both below. I'm not sure I would go so far as following this path to Week 17 because chasing the matchups will lead you to Will Levis against Jacksonville or Bryce Young against Tampa Bay.
Let's cover Week 15 and Week 16 before we worry about that.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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28 -- Sam Darnold's 28 pass touchdowns is more than he had in 30 starts from 2020-2023. He's above the fray and a must-start QB.
13 -- Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 13 times in his last three games. His 7% sack rate is a career-high.
32 -- Jacksonville has allowed five different quarterbacks to score at least 32 Fantasy points against them.
315 -- Jameis Winston is averaging 315 passing yards per game in his six starts. The Chiefs are giving up 269 passing yards per game in their last four. Only one QB topped that mark in the first 10 weeks of the season against them.
22 -- Jordan Love is averaging 22 pass attempts per game in his last four games.
0 -- Anthony Richardson does not have one game this season between 15.9 and 25.2 Fantasy points. He's the poster boy for boom or bust.
17.6 -- Justin Herbert has only topped 17.6 Fantasy points four times all year and not once since Week 11.
Rodgers just had his best passing output of the season with 339 passing yards against the Dolphins. Now he faces a Jacksonville defense that has given up the most Fantasy points to opposing QBs. I would not be surprised if he tops 300 yards again and throws more than one touchdown this time. Rodgers is a one-week stream only.
Winston could throw for 350 yards any given Sunday, and the Chiefs pass defense has not been particularly good lately. The Browns will not be able to run against Kansas City, which could lead to another 40-pass game from Winston. He's a two-week streamer because he gets the Bengals in Week 16. It is Cleveland in December, so do watch the weather reports, but it doesn't look bad as of Tuesday afternoon. As always, Winston is better in leagues that don't penalize too heavily for turnovers. If you are on bye and don't need a QB for Week 15, Winston is the clear top add, followed by Anthony Richardson.
If you have a bye in Week 15 and are looking for a Week 16 streamer, Jameis Winston is the top choice in his matchup with the Bengals. Cooper Rush is the only QB they've held below 27 Fantasy points in the last month.
I don't like Richardson in Week 14 against the Broncos. I like him a little more against the Titans in Week 16 and a lot more against the Giants in Week 17. All that being said, in any given week, he gives you 30-point upside, so if you're looking for a big swing as an underdog, he may be your guy regardless of matchup.
I love Winston's chances of getting the 300-yard bonus this week. His price is down because he's played two of his last three games against the Steelers, but Winston only has one start this season below 26 Fantasy points when he's played anyone other than Pittsburgh. Kansas City is not currently a difficult matchup for a quarterback.
Williams just scored 30 Fantasy points against this Vikings defense three weeks ago. Now he's indoors seeing them for the second time in a month. There's a very low floor here, so I wouldn't play him in cash games, but in tournaments, his high upside at a low price is exactly what I'm looking for.
QB Preview
Heath's projections
My full set of Week 15 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 15. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
