Changing the rankings over from a season-long view to a Week 1 view is always a bit of a shock. While many rankings look the same, there are always some outliers based either on injuries, matchups, or some other unexpected factor. In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, there are three veteran quarterbacks with terrifying matchups that I would like to sit on my bench.
To be fair, I may have preferred to bench Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins even with great matchups. Their age and the fact that they're returning from Achilles' injuries make them risky enough. We also haven't seen either play a full game with their new teams. Cousins is at least at home, but I expect the Steelers defense to be very good once again and don't want to trust him. Rodgers travels to San Francisco, a team that had more interceptions (22) than passing touchdowns allowed (20) in 2023. They were also tied for seventh in the NFL in sacks with 48, so they'll provide a good test for the Jets' rebuilt offensive line.
The bigger surprise is my fear of starting Dak Prescott. My projections process starts with a team total projection from implied Vegas lines. As of Tuesday morning, the Cowboys have an implied total of 19.75. I would imagine that would be their lowest of the year, and it makes sense. Only two of the nine teams to travel to Cleveland last year scored more than 20 points. Add in the fact that Prescott and Lamb haven't been practicing together due to Lamb's holdout and there's real reason to be concerned in Week 1. You can't sit Lamb, but it's much easier to sit Prescott.
Two other top-notch QBs I don't want to start in Week 1 are Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert. Purdy plays a Jets defense that was the best in football against quarterbacks in 2023. He's an easy sit. I want to see the Chargers offensive game plan under Greg Roman before I start Herbert, especially since the QB has been dealing with a foot issue.
That's a lot of QBs I don't want to play, but I have two streamers who are rostered in less than half of leagues, and one deep sleeper I would start over Herbert, listed below. You always find all of my projections over at Sportsline.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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234 -- Tampa Bay gave up 234 yards rushing to QBs last year, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. We'll see how much that matters against Jayden Daniels.
110.3 -- Tua Tagovailoa owns a 110.3 passer rating in nine career September games, his highest mark in any month.
21 -- The Jets gave up 21 combined touchdowns to quarterbacks last year, only the Ravens allowed fewer.
24.9 -- Jared Goff averaged 24.9 FPPG at home last year. In 2022, he averaged 25.6 at home. He's a must-start at home in Week 1.
4 -- Anthony Richardson scored four rushing touchdowns in approximately two and a half games last year. Last year the Texans surrendered a league-high seven rushing TDs to QBs.
Mayfield is my number one projected streamer this week at 18.4 Fantasy points. I would start him over Cousins and Rodgers. The Commanders gave up the most Fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last year. There is a little bit of risk with the new offensive coordinator but that's mostly made up for by the fact that he has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Smith is at home, with a good matchup, in his first game with Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. We expect Grubb's offense to be a downfield passing attack, and Smith has been very accurate downfield the past two seasons. The Seahawks' 24-point implied total is a plus, and so is the fact that all three of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba appear to be healthy.
Darnold is only a start in two-QB leagues, but I do prefer him over Herbert, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson this week. The Giants have arguably the worst secondary in the league and Darnold has Justin Jefferson. That should get him to 17 Fantasy points, which is more than I can count on from the guys listed above in Week 1.
Maye is a must-stash in two-QB leagues, Dynasty leagues, and keeper leagues. His 15% roster rate suggests he's rostered in most, but not all. I also believe it's worth noting that there's a chance Maye's athleticism makes him worthy of a stash in one-QB redraft leagues as well. Maye ran for 16 touchdowns in his final two seasons at North Carolina, and averaged more than 500 yards per year on the ground. As bad as the Patriots offensive line is, he should be in a scramble drill for most of the season. Jacoby Brissett will start Week 1, but we wouldn't be surprised if Maye is starting before the bye weeks hit.
Daniels is my seventh-highest projected scoring quarterback on the main slate, but his price is outside of the top 12. Even if he is a disaster as a passer, he could justify a $7,000 price tag with his legs. It probably makes sense to stack Terry McLaurin with Daniels, particularly in tournaments, but I wouldn't be afraid to run him out there by himself either. One thing I definitely want to do is bring it back with Mike Evans, who is one of my favorite wide receiver plays on the week.
The Dolphins and the Jaguars have the highest over/under on the main slate as of Tuesday morning at 49.5. I project Lawrence for more FanDuel points in the game and he's $300 less. This should be one of the most stacked games in tournaments, but Jacksonville gives you plenty of pairing options. If you really want to get contrarian, stack Lawrence with Travis Etienne, who is projected to have a bigger role in the passing game this year.
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Heath's projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
