Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 10 content:
Cincinnati was dead-last in defensive rush success rate when they faced the Ravens in Week 5 and are still dead-last when they face them this week. But because the Bengals offense caught fire in their previous meeting, Lamar Jackson couldn't just rest on his run game and wound up throwing four touchdowns. Baltimore's pass defense doesn't get a pass for limiting Bo Nix last week, especially since they allowed 13 passing TDs and 8.5 yards per attempt in their prior four games (including five scores to Joe Burrow!). It's pretty easy to envision another high-scoring game, even on a short week. That includes optimism for Mike Gesicki, who has at least 12.3 PPR points in each of his past three games without Tee Higgins active and faces a Ravens defense that's allowed 11.7 yards per catch to tight ends this season, fourth-most in the NFL.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Ja'Marr Chase
STARTS: Zay Flowers, Chase Brown (borderline top-24 RB), Mike Gesicki, Mark Andrews
SITS: Khalil Herbert (stash), Justice Hill (bye-week PPR flex), Mark Andrews (borderline starter), Andrei Iosivas, Diontae Johnson, Rashod Bateman, Ravens DST, Bengals DST
Entrusting your Fantasy team to Daniel Jones is risky business, but if you believe in the matchups then you'll give him a whirl. The Panthers are arguably the most toothless defense in the league, dead-last pass rush pressure rate and third-to-last in sacks. They also reliable play zone coverage (seventh-highest rate) and use Cover-3 as their primary pass defense. Jones' best metrics come when he's not pressured and when he plays zone coverage. He also passed the eyeball test in the second half of last week, showing efficiency as a passer and nimbleness as a runner. That helped him tally three scores and notch a season-high 28.4 Fantasy points (his fourth 20-plus game on the year). Carolina has allowed 20-plus Fantasy points to a quarterback in four of its past six. Combine that with their offense generating some numbers and we might have a quasi-shootout in Germany.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Malik Nabers
STARTS: Daniel Jones, Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy
FLEX: Xavier Legette
SITS: Bryce Young, Wan'Dale Robinson (bye-week PPR WR), Jalen Coker (stash and desperation bye-week WR), Ja'Tavion Sanders (bye-week PPR TE), Jonathon Brooks, Devin Singletary, Theo Johnson, Giants DST (one-week option), Panthers DST
The Patriots consistently play man-to-man coverage, which is a problem for Caleb Williams if his track record this year is any indication. Williams has completed just half of his throws against those kinds of coverages with just 5.0 yards per attempt and a 24.2% off-target rate. An already struggling D.J. Moore has dealt with Williams' shortcomings for nearly all of this season -- Moore has just two games with 15-plus PPR (at Indy, versus Carolina). While we sometimes overrate Christian Gonzalez's coverage skills, he figures to be assigned to Moore for this matchup, making his day even harder to envision as successful.
STARTS: D'Andre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson (No. 2 RB), Hunter Henry, Bears DST (one-week option)
FLEX: D.J. Moore, Demario Douglas (PPR)
SITS: Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet (bye-week TE), Roschon Johnson (desperation bye-week RB), Antonio Gibson, Patriots DST
The Bills pass defense has been outstanding this season, a problem for a Colts passing game that struggled last week. Joe Flacco was hit or miss on his throws, delivering some passes without zip and perhaps with some miscommunication. That'll be a problem against a Bills defense that rarely blitzes but still gets some pressure while clamping down on mainly outside receivers. While that might disqualify Michael Pittman from your lineups, upstart receiver Josh Downs could follow in the footsteps of fellow slot-heavy WRs like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian Kirk and Stefon Diggs, each of whom had at least 12 PPR points on Buffalo.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor (No. 2 RB)
STARTS: Josh Downs (low-end No. 2 WR in PPR), Dalton Kincaid (low-end starting TE), Bills DST
FLEX: Khalil Shakir (borderline top-24 PPR WR), Amari Cooper
SITS: Joe Flacco, Michael Pittman, Ray Davis (stash and desperation bye-week RB), Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Ty Johnson, Trey Sermon
The Jaguars have been dialing back their heavy man-to-man coverage over recent weeks but they remain committed to not blitzing -- they rank dead last in blitz rate and have the seventh-lowest pass rush pressure rate to show for it. Minnesota's offensive line looked fine last week with new tackle Cam Robinson and Sam Darnold did a nice job getting the ball out when pressure arrived. He shouldn't get sped into errant throws this week, which is good because when he faces man coverage his yards per attempt rise by 2.5 yards on average and his TD rate spikes from 3.2% to 9.6%.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, Vikings DST
SITS: Jordan Addison (low-end top-36 WR), Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne, T.J. Hockenson, Cam Akers, Jaguars DST
DeAndre Hopkins might not be a burner anymore, but he still can run slick routes, stay in sync with his quarterback and go up and get contested catches. That's the lesson learned from last week's eight catch, 86-yard, two-score game against the Bucs. You might be able to count on a repeat of good target volume, but No. 1 receivers, especially perimeter guys like Hopkins, have struggled against the Broncos this season. In fact, most of the receivers who have done damage versus Denver have been slot guys -- Zay Flowers last week, Jalen Coker the week before (garbage time), Chris Godwin back in Week 3, and Cedrick Wilson (garbage time). Hopkins has played in the slot on 29% of snaps with the Chiefs (nearly most of them coming last week against the Bucs), but it might not be enough to push him any higher than a No. 3 wideout.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Travis Kelce
STARTS: Kareem Hunt, Courtland Sutton (No. 2 WR), Chiefs DST, Broncos DST
FLEX: DeAndre Hopkins (PPR), Xavier Worthy (low-end flex)
SITS: Patrick Mahomes (high-end No. 2 QB), Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Troy Franklin, Audric Estime
You read in this space last week that a crucial key to Kirk Cousins' success is not getting pressured. Sure enough, Dallas only pressured Cousins on 30.8% of his dropbacks -- which is actually more than anticipated. The Saints pass rush pressure rate is below league average on the season but an incredibly low 25.7% in their past four matchups. Maybe there's a boost after Dennis Allen was fired, but odds are the Saints won't be able to harass Cousins much, and even if they do their cornerbacks are thinned out due to injuries and trades.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Falcons DST (one-week option)
STARTS: Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Darnell Mooney (No. 2 WR), Kyle Pitts, Taysom Hill (low-end starter)
SITS: Derek Carr, Cedric Wilson Jr. (desperation bye-week WR), Ray-Ray McCloud, Tyler Allgeier, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, Saints DST
49ers GM John Lynch told The TK Show this week that if Christian McCaffrey responds well to practice, feels like he can make an impact and handle the volume the team's put on him before, then the team will play him without hesitation. An ESPN report similarly said that the Niners wouldn't bring McCaffrey back if he couldn't handle the work. Granted, we should expect a second running back to get some work, but if McCaffrey's good to go then he should throttle a Bucs run defense that's allowed 4.9 yards per carry on the season and at least 17 PPR points to four straight running backs including Kareem Hunt last week.
OBVIOUS STARTS: George Kittle
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Cade Otton, 49ers DST
FLEX: Jauan Jennings, Rachaad White (PPR), Bucky Irving (half- or non-PPR)
SITS: Baker Mayfield (low-end No. 1 QB), Ricky Pearsall, Sterling Shepard, Jordan Mason, Buccaneers DST
Both teams added defensive players at the trade deadline, and both could be counted on to make an impact right away. Preston Smith is a solid pass rusher who will be asked to help the Steelers raise their pass rush pressure rate from 33.8% (about league average). Corralling Jayden Daniels is a tough first assignment for him. And for Washington, new cornerback Marshon Lattimore should free up the defense to blitz more. While Dan Quinn's cornerbacks have moved around the formation all season, Lattimore has played at right cornerback (to the quarterback's left) for each of the past three years. He might not play in Week 10, which would be a big help for both Russell Wilson and George Pickens to play well again.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Terry McLaurin
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, Najee Harris, George Pickens, Steelers DST (low-end option)
SITS: Russell Wilson, Austin Ekeler (bye-week RB), Zach Ertz (bye-week TE), Mike Williams, Noah Brown, Pat Freiermuth, Commanders DST
The Chargers have won by at least 17 points in each of their past two games, and Justin Herbert attempted 32 and 27 passes in those matchups. Oddly enough, the low volume hasn't stopped him from posting outstanding numbers -- at least 23.5 Fantasy points in each game. Tennessee's secondary is depleted due to injuries and their pass rush is third from the bottom in pass rush pressure rate but have still come up with four sacks in each of their past two games. This should be another runaway game for the Chargers, and with Herbert starting to hit his stride, he's not a bad option if you're a little stuck.
STARTS: J.K. Dobbins, Tony Pollard (No. 2 RB), Chargers DST
FLEX: Ladd McConkey (PPR), Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston
SITS: Justin Herbert (borderline No. 1/No. 2 QB), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (bye-week WR), Tyjae Spears, Will Dissly, Titans DST
The Jets sacked C.J. Stroud eight times last week, their latest evolution since firing Robert Saleh. Haason Reddick's presence helped, but they got everyone from linebackers to cornerbacks involved in their blitzes, making them tough for offenses to deal with. The Cardinals offensive line has the sixth-best pass rush pressure rate allowed on the year (the Jets are third), but Murray hasn't been able to use that to his advantage -- of his four games with over 20 Fantasy points this year, two were boosted by long touchdown runs and the other two were his only games with multiple passing scores and over 250 yards passing. Every other game saw him get 16.8 or fewer Fantasy points. This improved Jets defense, along with their initial version from when Saleh coached, has held all but two QBs to under 15 Fantasy points each. It's an uphill battle for Murray in Week 10.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
STARTS: James Conner, Trey McBride, Jets DST
FLEX: Marvin Harrison Jr.
SITS: Aaron Rodgers (high-end No. 2 QB), Kyler Murray, Michael Wilson, Tyler Conklin, Braelon Allen, Cardinals DST
Cooper Rush's career metrics -- his 60% completion rate, his 6.5 yards per attempt, his 6.17 average throw depth and his 16.4% off-target rate -- compare closest to what Jacoby Brissett did this season with the Patriots (though Brissett's off-target rate wasn't as high). Not a good sign, especially against a rapidly improving Philadelphia defense that has 16 sacks in their past four games while barely blitzing opposing quarterbacks. And only one receiver -- Ja'Marr Chase -- has had more than NINE PPR points against them since the bye. That list includes Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Amari Cooper.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
STARTS: DeVonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb (top-20 WR), Jake Ferguson, Eagles DST
FLEX: Rico Dowdle (PPR)
SITS: Cooper Rush, Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys DST
C.J. Stroud hasn't posted even 15 Fantasy points in any of his past three games. Notably, he hasn't had Nico Collins for any of those games. He'll obviously help, but what he really needs is an offensive line that won't allow a pass rush pressure rate north of 46%. That's the three-week low for Houston; in their games against the Packers and Jets they let up a pressure on over 50% of their dropbacks. The Texans didn't add a lineman at the trade deadline, so they must think they have a solution in-house. Detroit's pass rush hasn't been as aggressive over their past two games but gamescript may be a factor. The addition of Za'Darius Smith should make them stronger, and perhaps less reliant on the blitz. It's a test for the Texans up front, but if they fall behind then Stroud should connect with both Collins and Tank Dell a bunch to help prop up his numbers.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Nico Collins, Tank Dell (top-24 WR), Lions DST
FLEX: Jameson Williams
SITS: C.J. Stroud (top-16 QB), Sam LaPorta (top-15 TE), Dalton Schultz, Texans DST
It was primarily Miami's run game that kept them in their matchup against Buffalo last week until Tua Tagovailoa began unleashing some ropes in the third quarter. Once he got a little more comfortable and held the ball more than 2.5 seconds he found Tyreek Hill down the left sideline for 28 yards, then again on a deep dig for 27. His touchdown to Waddle involved avoiding the pass rush and keeping his eyes into the end zone before finding his target after five seconds. This is the version of Tagovailoa Fantasy managers need for four quarters if we're ever going to have monster games Hill and Waddle again. He'll face a zone-heavy Rams defense with a pass rush that seems to be hitting its stride after getting seven sacks at Seattle last week. That will be something Tagovailoa must deal with when he's not getting rid of the ball quickly.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams, De'Von Achane, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill (top-20 WR)
STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle, Demarcus Robinson, Raheem Mostert (non-PPR)
SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (borderline No. 1/No. 2 QB), Jonnu Smith (bye-week TE), Rams DST (bye-week DST), Dolphins DST
