In Week 11 Jauan Jennings saw double-digit targets for the third time this season. For the third time this season, he produced like a must-start wide receiver. Over the last two weeks, he's now caught 17 of 22 targets for 184 yards and a touchdown. That sounds completely insane until you remember that earlier this year he caught 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns.
It's undeniable, Jennings looks like a league winner. He also projects as a top-12 wide receiver for me in all formats in Week 12. But that doesn't mean I'm worried about Deebo Samuel.
Samuel is having a very bad year. No one would deny that. His rushing efficiency is in the tank and he's only scored one receiving touchdown all season. I still view him as a must-start wide receiver, especially with six teams on a bye.
To start with, Samuel has at least 12.6 PPR Fantasy points in three of his last four healthy games, without scoring a touchdown in any of them. A 12-point floor without a touchdown is a starter. More importantly, he still has upside. Samuel scored 18.7 PPR Fantasy points in Week 1, 18 more in Week 2, and 20.7 as recently as Week 6.
Yes, Samuel is WR41 on the season with an average of 11.3 PPR FPPG. That's heavily influenced by the fact that he played four snaps and scored zero points against the Chiefs in Week 7. In the other eight games, he's averaged a more respectable 12.7. That's still only WR34...but 11 of the receivers with a better average this season aren't playing in Week 12. Like Jennings, you should view Samuel as a must-start this week.
With Tommy DeVito starting we don't want to start any Giants wide receivers besides Malik Nabers
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Numbers to Know
33.6% -- Amongst receivers who have run at least 100 routes, Puka Nacua's 33.6% target per route run rate ranks number one.
32.5% -- Amongst receivers who have run at least 100 routes, Cooper Kupp's 32.5% target per route run rate ranks number two.
2.86 -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging 2.86 Fantasy points per target. That is number one amongst wide receivers who have run at least 100 routes.
11 -- Mike Evans still leads all receivers with 11 end zone targets. We're expecting him back in Week 12 and we're starting him.
34.7% -- Courtland Sutton has 18 receptions of at least 16 yards. That's fifth-most amongst wide receivers.
Moore was my top add of last week, and he's still only 19% rostered. I would expect that will go up after he scored 18.6 PPR Fantasy points against the Saints. Moore has 29 targets over his last three games, and he's scored at least 16.5 PPR Fantasy points in two of those. All three of Moore, Jerry Jeudy, and Cedric Tillman are startable with Jameis Winston under center.
I said we don't want to start any Giants wide receivers besides Malik Nabers. We don't, but with six teams on a bye, you may not have a choice. Robinson has a great matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that has given up 36.1 PPR FPPG to opposing receivers. I don't like the quarterback change, but Tommy DeVito only averaged 6.5 intended air yards per attempt in 2023, which is exactly the part of the field Robinson works in.
In non-PPR leagues, Watson is actually my favorite add. He has the ability to make your day in just one play, and he showed that last week with four catches for 150 yards. The downside is that four catches tied a season-high for Watson and that he only saw four targets in the game. In his prior three games, he had just 87 yards combined.
We often see a rookie bump coming out of the bye. He could be a solid WR3 in the Fantasy playoffs. The Panthers play Tampa Bay in the Fantasy semifinals and Atlanta in championship week.
This is one of those situations where the price hasn't caught up to the production. Jennings is a consensus top 10 wide receiver this week, and he is priced like a number two or three receiver.
Samuel's price and roster rate are falling. While I strongly suggest his teammate in cash games, he's exactly the type of player I want to play in a high-scoring game at a low roster rate. I have no doubt he still has the weekly upside to give you 100 total yards and two touchdowns.
