Patrick Mahomes was my No. 1 quarterback coming into the 2024 season. Four weeks into the season he sits at QB18 per game. He has lost his top two wide receivers and number one running back to injury. He's thrown five interceptions in four games and doesn't have a 300-yard or three-touchdown game yet.
This week, he faces a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest Fantasy points to opposing QBs. Next week, he's on a bye. The week after that, he's traveling to San Francisco.
This all begs the question we never thought we'd be asking: Should you drop Patrick Mahomes?
The answer is complicated. In an eight or 10-team league where only one quarterback is started? I wouldn't blame you. In a league where Andy Dalton or Daniel Jones is the best quarterback on the waiver wire? I wouldn't consider dropping Mahomes. For everyone in the middle, I'm probably not, but I am certainly looking at other options to start in Week 4.
Mahomes has simply not been a great Fantasy QB since 2022. Including the playoffs, he only has one 300-yard game in his last nine starts, and the Chiefs won all of them. They have a great defense, a questionable offensive line, and very limited weapons in the passing game. Unless you get Fantasy points for back-breaking game-winning drives, Mahomes may not be special in Fantasy this year.
If you're looking to sit him this week, check the waivers section below.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
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58.4 -- Mahomes has a 58.4 passer rating when holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. In 2023, that number was 83.7. For his career, it is 95.
1,182 -- Geno Smith leads the NFL with 1,182 passing yards but has thrown just four touchdown passes. A little regression, and he's going to be a must-start Fantasy QB.
35.1% -- Deshaun Watson has been pressured on 35.1% of his dropbacks. He's also had a league-high eight passes dropped.
4.9% -- Baker Mayfield has been off-target on less than 5% of his throws, second only to Smith.
7.5 -- Lamar Jackson is averaging a career-high 7.5 yards per rush attempt.
82.1% -- Jayden Daniels leads the NFL with an 82.1% completion percentage.
12.7 -- Anthony Richardson's intended air yards per attempt is still two full yards higher than anyone else.
Yes, I know how bad Watson has been. And I know Kyler Murray just struggled against this defense. But he's one of the few QBs in the last calendar year who haven't lit this defense up. Daniel Jones scored 20 Fantasy points against them just three weeks ago. I expect a big time bounce back from both Watson and Amari Cooper in this spot. For the record, I would strongly prefer Sam Darnold, but he's only available in 32% of leagues.
The streaming options this week aren't great, but with four teams on a bye, Lawrence qualifies. This is a good matchup against a banged-up Colts defense, and Lawrence is coming off his first two-touchdown game of the season. This was a brutal schedule to start the season, but I still believe Lawrence's best football of 2024 is ahead of him.
Every couple of weeks I just need to remind you that Drake Maye is available in more than 85% of leagues and there will likely be a rush to the waiver wire as soon as the Patriots decide to start him. He has the ability to be one of the top seven or eight rushing QBs in the league and enough young talent around him that he could be a streamer against the right matchup.
The only way I could see Jackson having a bad day against this defense is if Derrick Henry scores four touchdowns. He might, but maybe you just play one cash game lineup with Jackson and one with Henry. Jackson is averaging 291 yards per game against some of the toughest defenses in the NFL. This will be a welcome break in terms of defensive opponent, but I do expect the Bengals to score enough to keep pressure on him. So does Vegas, as this game has the highest total on the slate.
The Commanders are terrible defensively, and Watson's struggles have caused his price to plummet. So we get a cheap QB at a low roster rate against a bad defense. Did I mention that the cheap QB is averaging 37 pass attempts and 5.5 rush attempts per game? He has massive upside if the Browns can do even a little bit to protect him.
QB Preview
Heath's projections
My full set of Week 5 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 5. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
