Stefon Diggs is out for the year with a torn ACL, which only continues a disastrous year for the wide receiver position. Diontae Johnson being traded to the Baltimore Ravens doesn't exactly make things better and may make things worse for Zay Flowers, who has been one of the few good and healthy wide receivers in the NFL. We are desperate for some good news at this position, and the Indianapolis Colts gave it to us when they announced that Joe Flacco would be starting in Week 9.
No matter how much sense you think it makes to bench Anthony Richardson, this is undoubtedly good news for Josh Downs and Michael Pittman. Before this trade, I had Downs ranked as a low-end WR3, and Pittman was outside my top 48 wide receivers for Week 9. After updating the projections, Downs is a low-end WR2, and Pittman is a WR3.
The biggest difference for the Colts when Flacco plays versus Richardson is the number of passes they throw. The Colts' run rate is over 50% with Richardson at QB and just over 40% with Flacco. Flacco's sack rate is a bit lower, and his scramble rate is a lot lower. The second biggest difference is that Flacco is completing 65% of his passes, while Richardson is at 44%. So you have the potential of 10 more passes per game and maybe even 10 more completions. That's a big deal in PPR leagues.
The funny thing is that Richardson has been about 10% better in yards per attempt despite the huge difference in completion percentage. That just illustrates that this is more of a volume conversation than an efficiency conversation, and the difference for Downs and Pittman is much different in full PPR leagues.
Downs is still available in a third of leagues, just slightly below our cutoff for the waiver wire section. But if you see him, get him before any of the guys below. We would expect Downs to be a starter for as long as Flacco is.
Here is the rest of the Week 9 WR Preview:
Week 9 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play in Week 9 at this time. Here's what it means:
Tank Dell is a No. 3 receiver without Diggs and Nico Collins both out.
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Parker Washington will fill Kirk's role and could be a PPR flex. He's even better if Brian Thomas misses time as well.
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Numbers to Know
- 19.2 -- Josh Downs was WR8 with 19.2 PPR FPPG in three games with Joe Flacco.
- 2.09 -- Cedric Tillman is averaging 2.09 yards per route run over the past two weeks. Teammate Jerry Jeudy is at 0.99.
- 39.5% -- Calvin Ridley had a 39.5% target share in his first game after the DeAndre Hopkins trade.
- 31.6% -- Malik Nabers' 31.6% TPRR leads all receivers who have run at least 100 routes.
- 11 -- Courtland Sutton has 11 red zone targets this year. Garrett Wilson and Drake London are the only wide receivers with more.
- 8.6 -- Keon Coleman is averaging 8.6 YAC/R, second only to Jameson Williams at receiver.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
Tillman is the number one wide receiver in Fantasy over the past two weeks with 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns. The offense is more competent with Jameis Winston under center, and they're getting a lot more pass attempts off. It's not a great schedule for the rest of the season, so he'll likely cool off, but he should still be a good No. 3 wide receiver with weekly top-12 upside.
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Washington is well suited to play the Christian Kirk role in this offense. He's caught 73% of his targets in his short career. The status of Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis will determine whether we're thinking about starting Washington next week, but he should be a PPR flex regardless.
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Moore led the Browns with 12 targets in Jameis Winston's first start and caught eight of them for 16.5 PPR Fantasy points. It was his second straight game with double-digit Fantasy points after reaching that mark just once in six tries with Deshaun Watson. If that volume repeats in Week 9, we'll be viewing Moore as a must-start in full PPR.
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Jauan Jennings scored 46.5 PPR Fantasy points in Week 3. He has 14 catches for 229 yards and zero touchdowns in his other five games. But with Brandon Aiyuk out for the year, there's a legitimate chance that once Jennings gets healthy, he becomes a must-start wide receiver again.
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DFS Plays
Just like last year, Lamb came out of the bye with fireworks. He caught 13 of 17 targets for 146 yards and two scores last week, and now he faces the Falcons indoors in the game with the highest over/under on the slate at 52.5. Lamb should be the chalk in cash games, and that shouldn't scare you away.
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Meyers has averaged 14.9 PPR FPPG over his last four games against some very difficult matchups. He has 35 targets over that stretch. This week, he's priced like a low-end WR3 against a mediocre Bengals defense. Expect 10 targets, and don't be surprised if he gives you 20 Fantasy points.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 9 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 9. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
