Who is this year's Puka Nacua?
I can't make an FFT podcast appearance without getting this question in the live chat. I've heard it all summer on Twitter. It's such an absurd question.
Who's this year's historic outlier of a rookie breakout? Maybe Marvin Harrison Jr.? Could be Caleb Williams. Probably none of the rookies, even in this awesome 2024 class.
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Let's change the question to "who are this year's unhearalded rookies to know?" In last year's version of this article, three of the ten answers to that question were Nacua, Tank Dell, and Jayden Reed. Will we hit on that level of breakouts in this space today? That'd be awesome! Again, though, I'm going with probably not as the answer. Two of those monster breakouts (Nacua and Reed) required injuries (to Cooper Kupp and Christian Watson) to truly unlock their potential. That's unpredictable. My realistic expectation is to give you a list of 10 under-the-radar rookies who have the ability to produce in 2024 if given the opportunity.
If you've been following me on Twitter or reading the newsletter for much time, you probably already have a lot of rookies that you like. Here's a list of some of my favorite not-so-obvious ones:
Tyrone Tracy
Bucky Irving
Ray Davis
MarShawn Lloyd
Ben Sinnott
Will Shipley
Jalen McMillan
Luke McCaffrey
We're not going to talk about any of those rooks today. They're not quite UNHERALDED enough. If you want to learn more about any of them, you can search my Twitter name and the player's name with the 'latest' designation and you'll find plenty of content.
I love Ray Davis. My brother and I just started our first Madden 2025 franchise together, and we chose the Carolina Panthers, and we then traded for Ray Davis to be the thunder to Jonathon Brooks' lightning. I am a sick, sick man. That is precisely who you want to tell you about late-round rookies.
Unhearalded Rookies Who Might Help You Win Your League
My initial answer this summer to the "this year's Puka" question was New York Giants RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., but I feel like I've written about him all summer and he is a fairly trendy rookie sleeper at this point. If looking for true league-winning upside from a random rookie, Tracy is an excellent pick. He is an awesome athlete, and explosive rusher, and a potential three-down contributor.
The rookies we are focused on today will be even more obscure. None of them may contribute in 2024. Don't think of these players are ones that you need to leave your draft with, but rather ones to be well aware of and keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Carson Steele, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Maybe the cat is out of the bag at this point, but still, Steele is a UDFA. Surely he is not too mainstream for this article. If you haven't yet caught onto the Steele mania, you can watch every preseason carry of his here.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been sidelined with personal health issues, leaving the door open for someone else in this backfield to emerge as the RB2. Steele rumbled through the open door, ripped it off its hinges, and snapped it with his bare hands like a twig. He sure seems to have earned the role as the primary backup to Isiah Pacheco.
Sione Vaki, RB, Detroit Lions
No running backs have been moving up my rankings more rapidly than Steele and Sione Vaki. The Lions drafted him much earlier than I remembered, and he has looked like a fantastic pick so far.
In a rookie roundup that I created after the first two weeks of preseason, I wrote the following about Vaki:
Both Vaki and Steele were awesome with their rushing opportunities at the collegiate level, too. I looked into both more this morning. Steele rushed for 3,291 yards in three seasons (two at Ball State and one at UCLA) with a 29% avoided tackle rate and 3.85 yards after contact per rush.
Sometimes the answers are hidden right under our nose.
In Vaki's case, we have far less evidence. He was a defensive back in college. He did receive 42 rush attempts in his final season at Utah, on which he avoided 24 tackles on his way to a 7.5 yard per rush average. That's wildly efficient in terms of both metrics. He's looked fantastic this preseason and could play a meaningful role in the best Fantasy offense in the NFL if either Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery miss time.
Jacob Cowing, WR, San Francisco 49ers
We will hit on both Cowing and Malik Washington in this space today, so don't worry.
If betting on one player to be "this year's Tank Dell," Cowing is my choice. His collegiate data was much more inspiring than Ricky Pearsall's. Of the two, Cowing's game may be more NFL-ready in 2024.
Kyle Shanahan has seemed to have a type, when it comes to small speedy field-stretchers fitting his system:
Cowing feels cut from the same cloth as some of these players who found success (at least temporarily) in a Shanahan-led offense. It will likely require an injury, but Cowing could play a a meaningful role at some point as a rookie and has the juice to put numbers on the board if playing in the NFL's most-efficient offense.
Jordan Whittington, WR, Los Angeles Rams
The drumbeat out of Rams camp has been steady on Whittington, and he has backed it up with his on-field preseason performance. Sean McVay seems to love the Round 6 rookie.
At the collegiate level, Whittington shared the field with Xavier Worthy at Texas and did not produce much from a total volume or efficiency standpoint. He doesn't have underlying per-route rates that inspire confidence in any sort of way that is similar to Nacua's collegiate profile.
He does play in a Sean McVay-led offense, though. And some ambiguity may exist at the third receiver spot, although Demarcus Robinson did play well down the stretch in 2023. I'm not as sold on Whittington from a talent perspective as the other players who we have hit on to this point, but the theme of targeting players who could end up in a meaningful role in a high-powered offense remains intact. Speaking of which...
Erick All, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
He's recovering from an ACL tear, but Cincinnati's Round 4 rookie tight end has been able to get on the field this preseason and may play a meaningful role in the offense in time. Currently, it appears as if Cincinnati will open the season with a TE rotation. All could work his way in.
All is a 6-foot-5 and 255-pound behemoth who can scoot a little bit too. His career at Iowa was an abbreviated one, but it did deliver some intriguing data.
Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
The mystery man was not heard from at all during training camp, then missed the first preseason game, and was rumored to be a cut candidate. L.A.'s Round 6 pick finally made his appearance in the second preseason game, you can watch all of his touches from that game here. He looks good to me. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are expected to lead this backfield out of the gate, but the NFL season is a marathon and not a sprint. Who knows how long those two will be healthy enough to shoulder the load of Jim Harbaugh's run-centric offense.
Vidal was a dawg at Troy. He absolutely proved capable of shouldering the load and doing so effectively.
A few people pushed back when this tweet blew up this summer, complaining about a lack of predictiveness. That's not really the point. That's the purpose of some data, sure. Congrats to you if you find something predictive, that's dope. Some data is descriptive. This data set displays a list of players who handled a massive workload and still produced efficiently with it. Vidal's name is near the very top. That's pretty cool.
I feel no confidence in any predictiveness when it comes to what I know about L.A.'s Round 6 pick. I feel even less confidence in placing a bet on his veteran backfield teammates exhibiting longevity in the year 2024. My guess is that Vidal gets a crack at an NFL role at some point during his rookie season.
Dylan Laube, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
You can watch the Round 6 RB's six preseason touches here. Below, you can examine his collegiate data profile compiled over six years at New Hampshire.
Laube's rushing data is simply not inspiring, particularly his 15% avoided tackle rate in 2023. He averaged under five yards per rush in his two seasons as a workhorse. That's pretty rough for a lower level of competition. His receiving contributions are the primary reason that Laube was drafted.
That is a HUGE receiving line for a college RB. Again, this production came at New Hampshire. During the time that I have the data available (dating back to 2017), Kenneth Gainwell and Saquon Barkley are the only two backs to post 600+ receiving yards in a season. Zamir White is not a passing downs contributor. It's possible that we see Laube on the field for third downs as a rookie, and he could play an even larger role if White and/or Alexander Mattison miss time.
Is he as exciting as the other names on this list? Nope. But receptions are a cheat code for Fantasy running backs! Keep Laube's name in mind if playing in PPR formats.
Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins
Here's a bit of Malik Washington preseason footage for you.
Malik Nabers was the only WR to register a higher PFF grade than Washington in 2023. The NFL then ignored him until Miami drafted him in Round 6, so make what you will of the five-foot-eight speedster's collegiate production.
Mike McDaniel was hyped to land Washington in the draft, and he's had good things to say about the rookie after spending an offseason with him. The Dolphins also have used three receiver sets way more this preseason than in 2023, which could simply be a way to get De'Von Achane more involved as a receiver. If the personnel change sticks during regular season action, it would clear a path for Washington to potentially see the field as a rookie.
It would probably require an injury to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle for Washington to play, but the three-receiver set increase could allow him to play alongside the two superstar receivers.
Jaheim Bell, TE, New England Patriots
He's a seventh-round tight end selection. He probably won't ever matter for Fantasy purposes. You better believe I have him stashed away on all of my Dynasty taxi squads, though.
Bell has some Delanie Walker to his game. He's dope. And with New England's tight end room dealing with injuries, he's poised for a big opportunity in the third preseason game. Could be fun!
