The Cleveland Guardians entered August with a commanding 6 1/2 game lead in the American League Central. Three weeks later, that lead has all but evaporated. Cleveland will enter play on Saturday against the Texas Rangers with the smallest division edge in Major League Baseball, holding onto sole possession of the Central by a single game over the Kansas City Royals. (The Minnesota Twins, widely regarded as preseason favorites to win the division, are themselves now just two games behind.)
The Guardians, who have had at least a share of the AL Central lead since April 13, can blame their diminished advantage on various factors. Chief among them: contrasting Augusts. Whereas the Guardians have lost six of seven en route to an 8-13 start to the month, the Royals have won seven of their last eight and 12 of their 19 August games.
Scroll slowly with us as we hit on four other things to know about the suddenly competitive AL Central race.
1. Guardians' bats have gone cold; Royals' have not
We don't think it's controversial to describe the Guardians as having a top-heavy lineup. Coming into Saturday, Cleveland's roster included nine players with at least 250 trips to the plate this season. Of those nine, four had a league-average OPS+ or better: José Ramírez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, and David Fry.
The Guardians have attempted to augment that group throughout the summer, trading for veteran outfielder Lane Thomas at the deadline and promoting Jhonkensy Noel (otherwise known by the delightful "Big Christmas" moniker) from the minor leagues. Noel has performed well in his chances; Thomas, um, not so much yet.
Still, this is a Guardians lineup that relies heavily on Ramírez, Kwan, Naylor, and Fry -- and that's been a bad thing in August. Ramírez has continued to excel and should receive Most Valuable Player Award consideration for the fifth consecutive season. Naylor has also been fine. The others? It's been rough.
Entering Saturday's game, Fry has a .654 OPS over the last 30 days, which is somehow good for the fifth best among Guardians hitters. Kwan, for his part, has a .574 mark, which is the third-worst … among Cleveland outfielders. (The aforementioned Thomas and Tyler Freeman both check in under .400.)
As a result, the Guardians rank 16th in runs scored and 27th in wRC+ (a FanGraphs metric that adjusts for park and other variables) during August? The Royals, on the other hand, rank second in runs scored and fourth in wRC+ in August thanks to the hot-hitting ways of Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and a few too many others to include. Is it any wonder why the division race has tightened up?
2. Twins still getting healthy
Most of our attention thus far has been paid to the Guardians and the Royals. Don't sleep on the Twins, who continue to await the returns of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Brooks Lee from the injured list. If Minnesota can get those three players back -- or, heck, even two of the three -- they have a chance to finish strong.
Just how good the Twins can be with Correa, Buxton, and Royce Lewis all active is a bit of an open question.
Coming into Saturday, Minnesota had played 128 games. The three aforementioned players had been in the starting lineup together in 13 of those. The Twins had a 6-7 record in those contests, but most of those games occurred earlier in the season, before they found their footing over the course of the summer.
3. Plenty of head-to-head games remaining
There's a real chance that the AL Central will be decided through the most straightforward method: head-to-head matchups games.
Just over a month is left in the regular season, yet the Guardians and Royals have seven dates remaining with one another, including four this coming week. (They'll play a doubleheader in Cleveland on Monday.) The Guardians also have four games left with the Twins, who, in turn, have three more contests to play against the Royals. These teams aren't going to have to watch the scoreboard often to know their standing.
Remember, too, that the first tiebreaker these days is based on head-to-head records. The Guardians have an insurmountable 7-2 advantage against the Twins, but they're 2-4 thus far against the Royals. (The Twins, meanwhile, are 7-3 against the Royals.)
You might be wondering, just who has the easiest schedule overall? Well, that sounds like a nifty segue to us.
4. Twins have easiest road ahead
Strength of schedule is one of those metrics that doesn't matter unless it matters. Just because one team is slated to play tougher competition than the other doesn't make it a fait accompli that they'll fare better in those games. Even keeping that in mind, it's worth knowing when there are disparities in strength of schedule at play.
Let's break down each team's remaining series in a handy dandy format:
- Guardians to play: Rangers, Royals, Pirates, Royals, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays, Twins, Cardinals, Reds, Astros.
- Royals to play: Phillies, Guardians, Astros, Guardians, Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Tigers, Giants, Nationals, Braves.
- Twins to play: Cardinals, Braves, Blue Jays, Rays, Royals, Angels, Reds, Guardians, Red Sox, Marlins, Orioles.
Just eyeballing it suggests that the Royals have the tougher road -- particularly in the short term. That is the case, according to FanGraphs' calculations. The Twins, meanwhile, have the easiest road -- you can attribute that to them having three series left with bottomfeeders. The other teams have one series with a last-place team combined, with that being the Guardians' matchup with the White Sox.
Will it matter? We'll find out soon enough.