We're now past Labor Day here in the 2024 season and obviously we know some things. A good number of teams are definitely contenders and a good number definitely are not. There's the mediocre tier as well. Within the playoff contenders, though there are (very lightly-drawn) lines within the tier, deciding on the best team weekly this season has been the toughest time I've had this late in the season in the 13 seasons I've been doing Power Rankings.
Let's run through the contenders very quickly to show that while there are certainly strong teams, they are all covered in warts. If we were comparing teams this season to the best teams in the regular seasons from the recent past, we'd have zero elite teams. None are going to win 100 games.
It's going to sound like I'm only focusing on the negative, but these teams' records establish them as the good teams and I'm illustrating the aforementioned warts and/or sub-par recent play.
Orioles - The O's haven't won a series over a team currently above .500 since July 4, and that was against the Mariners. Before that it was June 20. The rotation is an issue as Grayson Rodríguez is hurt, Trevor Rogers got sent to the minors and Corbin Burnes had a 7.36 ERA in August.
Yankees - On June 14, the Yankees were 50-22. Since then? They are 30-36. They lost series to the Nationals and Cardinals last week. It's just not a reliable team at all.
Guardians - Speaking of which, the Guardians started 51-26. They are 28-33 since. They very recently completed an 8-16 stretch.
Astros - The Astros have done a lot of winning for a while, but starting the season 12-24 put them in a tough position and they've had a few fairly recent hiccups, such as losing six of eight from Aug. 20-27. Especially with Kyle Tucker still injured, the back half of the lineup is far from impressive.
Phillies - From July 12 through Aug. 22, the Phillies went 13-22. That's a 35-game stretch where they played like a 102-loss team.
Brewers - They are, like the Astros, doing an awful lot of winning right now. Like the Astros, the Brewers are not impervious to rough stretches. They had a losing record in July, during which they lost Christian Yelich for the season.
Dodgers - The rotation continues to be basically a trainer's room, if not a surgical recovery ward. Even the healthy ones aren't collectively reliable at all. They are just going to continue to patch it together and hope they out-slug people.
Padres and Diamondbacks - These have been the two best teams in baseball since the All-Star break, but both were mediocre before the break and that was a much larger sample of baseball.
Royals and Twins - The Royals tied the Guardians and then lost six in a row (and counting). The Twins have lost nine of 14, continue to be an injury-prone bunch and aren't very inspiring.
Braves and Mets (and Cubs?) - The Braves have had the season from hell in terms of injuries along with some under-performance. Until sweeping the pathetic White Sox over the weekend, the Mets had been mediocre (15-16) for a month-plus. The Cubs have moved into contention, but remember, they were under .500 until winning eight of nine against the Marlins, Pirates and Nationals. They aren't just all of a sudden reliably great.
Red Sox? Tigers? Mariners? Even in this down year overall, if you can't shake .500 by more than a few games on the AL side, you aren't a true contender.
Now, I know seeing so many teams bunched so closely together with no teams headed for 100 wins makes it seem like we're destined for a crazy playoff season that might yield an underdog vs. underdog World Series matchup. It might. Look no further than 2014. Hell, last season was pretty high on the "let's get nuts" scale. But the last time no team in MLB reached a .600 winning percentage in a season was 2013. The Cardinals and Red Sox tied for the best record in baseball at 97-65 (.599). They both ended up in the Fall Classic.
I definitely think we're going to have a fun playoff season and plenty of back-and-forth and unpredictability, but that doesn't mean we can take a No. 1 seed vs. No. 1 seed matchup in the Fall Classic off the table.
We just have no idea which two teams those will be right now.
| Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -- | 98-64 | |
The Dodgers have won 17 of 23. They can remain on this perch, even if it feels tenuous with that rotation.
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| 2 | 1 | 95-67 | |
The Phillies have now won seven of their last 10 and it came against the Royals, Astros and Braves. It's the first confidence-inspiring stretch from this group in months.
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| 3 | 1 | 93-69 | |
The best run differential in baseball belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
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| 4 | 2 | 94-68 | |
Based on what we've seen all season, where's the upside in playing Alex Verdugo every day? Why not just give Jasson Domínguez a look?
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| 5 | 1 | 91-71 | |
Maybe they are in for a hot September? Burnes threw well on Monday, Gunnar Henderson might be heating up again and the Orioles have outscored their opponents 19-4 through two September games.
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| 6 | 1 | 92-69 | |
The Guardians' amazing play through nearly half the season bought them plenty of cushion to withstand an extended downturn and they have done so. They dwindled that lead to zero (a tie) but now the Guardians have won four of five and pushed the lead back up to 3.5. They are in great shape once again.
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| 7 | 1 | 93-69 | |
Remember, the Cardinals fired Mike Shildt eight days after losing the 2021 Wild Card. All he's ever done as a manager is win. He's now 331-260 (.560, a 162-game average of 91 wins).
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| 8 | 3 | 88-73 | |
Apparently Kyle Tucker had a fracture in his shin and it never came out until very recently. Weak, Astros. Anyway, it seems like he's running the bases now, so perhaps a return isn't that far off.
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| 9 | 4 | 89-73 | |
Remember last season when the Diamondbacks were the lackluster offense in the World Series? This time around they lead the NL in OPS, are second in slugging and have a shot at finishing in the top five in home runs in the majors.
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| 10 | 3 | 89-73 | |
Remember, the Mets were supposed to be the big seller in front of the trade deadline. Their season turned around with a win on June 2 and they've gone 50-29 since (tied for the best record in MLB in that stretch with the D-backs).
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| 11 | 1 | 89-73 | |
The Braves looked like they were totally falling apart and then got scorching hot. Losing three of four in Philly with a few tough losses has them clinging to a very small lead for the final NL playoff spot. They have a pretty easy remaining schedule overall, though.
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| 12 | 3 | 82-80 | |
They could sure use a fully functional Carlos Correa back, but as long as they stay within four games, they technically have a shot in the Central due to a four-game series against the Guardians remaining.
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| 13 | 3 | 86-76 | |
Those late-August injuries were a total bummer. It's a bad sign when you have to grab Tommy Pham, Yuli Gurriel and Robbie Grossman off waivers in August 2024.
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| 14 | 3 | 83-79 | |
A big piece of the surge here has been the offense as a whole. It was thin and subpar for a lot of the season, but now they are getting production from everywhere. A big and encouraging part of that is coming from the red-hot Miguel Amaya and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Further, Dansby Swanson is heating up.
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| 15 | 3 | 86-76 | |
It's going to come down to the Tigers, but it would be really funny if the AL Central had four teams with a winning record before seeing it fall off a cliff to the White Sox.
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| 16 | 2 | 81-81 | |
Trevor Story is about to return, but I think they are cooked. I suppose as long as the Royals are losing every day they have a chance to get back in it.
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| 17 | 2 | 85-77 | |
The Mariners haven't been below .500 since they were 9-10. They got as high as 13 games over .500. They're about to dip below sometime very soon.
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| 18 | 1 | 83-79 | |
Jordan Walker going 5 for 5 with a home run on Sunday had to feel all kinds of encouraging.
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| 19 | 3 | 80-82 | |
The only position player in the NL with a higher WAR than Matt Chapman is Shohei Ohtani. Maybe more teams should try signing Chapman this offseason instead of having him sit into March in free agency? Yes, yes, I know ... it's all Scott Boras' fault! (Just ask Jordan Montgomery.)
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| 20 | -- | 80-82 | |
They aren't playing for 2024 anymore, but Taj Bradley is a big part of their plans for 2025 (at least I think he is; they do change things up a lot). He's had a very worrisome last six starts -- 9.85 ERA while opposing hitters have slashed .345/.396/.622.
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| 21 | -- | 74-88 | |
His numbers overall are great, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got off to a slow start and in his last 109 games has hit an absurd .352/.417/.610. He only has one year left until hitting free agency and the Blue Jays don't necessarily have the look of a 2025 contender as things stand. It's very interesting, eh?
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| 22 | 2 | 78-84 | |
The World Series hangover is going to result in a losing record, but it'll be fun to catch a glimpse of Jacob deGrom here in the last month. He's still signed through 2027.
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| 23 | -- | 77-85 | |
I've seen some talk from the Cincy area regarding the possible return of Hunter Greene. There's one camp saying things like "why take the chance?" Take what chance? If he's healthy, he should pitch. He's still only thrown 143 1/3 innings this season and the goal here is to train the body of an ace to be able to handle a 200ish-inning workload in a season. What if they shut him down now, contend next year and he hits a wall after around 165 innings? C'mon. No need to baby these guys as long as they are injury-free.
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| 24 | 2 | 76-86 | |
Here's a fun nugget: The Pirates lead the majors in stolen base success rate.
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| 25 | 1 | 69-93 | |
Youngster Lawrence Butler is really coming into his own with the bat. In his last 41 games, he's 53 for 159 (.333) with 13 doubles, two triples and 14 homers.
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| 26 | 1 | 71-91 | |
For someone watching the 2002 World Series when J.T. Snow saved a toddler named Darren Baker around home plate, it was pretty damn cool to see Baker make the majors and collect a single in his first career at-bat on Sunday.
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| 27 | -- | 63-99 | |
There was a (incredibly poorly attempted) suicide squeeze by the Angels over the weekend that pretty well summed up the state of the franchise.
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| 28 | 1 | 62-100 | |
Since coming over in the Trevor Rogers trade and then being promoted on Aug. 19, 24-year-old Connor Norby is hitting .313/.377/.625 in 53 plate appearances.
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| 29 | 1 | 61-101 | |
We've already discussed how the Rockies had never had a 100-loss season until last year and now it looks like two straight. In order to avoid that, they'll have to go 12-12 the rest of the season. They don't play a team with a losing record the rest of the way. For real. Their remaining opponents have a combined .552 winning percentage.
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| 30 | -- | 41-121 | |
They've lost 108 games, are 48.5 games out of first place and have 23 games left.
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