It's been nearly eight months since the start of the 2022 college football season, and with just days to go before the 2023 NFL Draft, I'm doing something a little different in this penultimate mock draft. CBS Sports' Pete Prisco has been doing this for years -- a mock draft on what teams should do -- and his '23 version comes out Tuesday. It's a great idea because it gets you on the record, plus it gives fans an easy way to point out where you were criminally wrong.
So here it is, what I think NFL teams should do on Thursday, during the first round of the draft. A sneak peak: I have five quarterbacks coming off the board (and two of them are selected after teams trade up into the first round), six defensive backs, and five offensive linemen -- though the first doesn't hear his name called until pick No. 9. Plus, the Jets add protection for Aaron Rodgers after finally trading for him, while the Packers get Jordan Love an offensive playmaker.
Also: remember to check out With the First Pick, the NFL Draft podcast I co-host with former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. We're live THREE times a week: every Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, and you can watch us live on the NFL on CBS YouTube channel. And you can subscribe on iTunes, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.
One last thing: there are only 31 picks in the first round of this mock draft because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick due to tampering.
OK, let's get to it.
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our NFL Draft podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
Young came in at 5-10 1/8 and weighed 204 pounds at the combine and didn't take part in the drills, but had a great pro day several weeks later. New coach Frank Reich has talked about the importance of size at the position but Young is the most NFL-ready quarterback on the board.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Stroud had a great pro day and it further solidified his case as one of the two best QBs in this draft class. The Texans would jump at the chance to take Bryce Young here but he's gone, and while they may choose to go in a different direction on Thursday, it's hard to imagine this team coming out of the first round without landing a QB. Stroud is our QB2, and his tape -- not to mention Houston's glaring needs at the position -- merits him going here in the draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
The more you watch of Wilson the more you love his game. Not only what he put on tape at Texas Tech but his upside 2-3 years down the road. He's long, has the frame to add weight if needed, and he's a dominant, high-motor pass rusher who can take over games. If the foot injury that sidelined him late in the '22 season is 100 percent, he could end up being the first defensive player drafted.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Richardson was pretty impressive at his pro day; he's built like a defensive end, runs like a power back and can throw the football 80 yards and make it look easy. His athleticism and arm strength leave a lasting impression when you see him in person, as does the effortlessness with which he plays. But what he has in God-given ability, he lacks in experience, so his best landing spot at the next level will be to a team with a veteran quarterback who can man the reins for another year or two until he's ready to take the next step. And if managed properly, that next step could truly be special.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
Pass rusher Will Anderson is the safest pick in the draft and fills an obvious need for the Seahawks along their defensive line. Great player, even better person, it's an easy selection to make here.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
Jalen Carter was arguably the best defender on a '21 Georgia defense that had five first-round picks, but off-field issues will determine when he hears his name called. The Lions have stability on the coaching staff and in the front office, and if they can keep Carter focused on football he could end up being the most dominant player in this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Witherspoon played at 180 pounds during the season but to watch him you'd swear he's closer to 215. He's one of the best corners in this class against the run and he's just as good in coverage. The Raiders have huge needs in the secondary and Witherspoon edges out Christian Gonzalez to be CB1 in this mock draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
The Falcons let CB Isaiah Oliver walk in free agency, and while edge rusher could be the target here, the team traded for CB Jeff Okudah to add depth. As for defensive line, they added Kaden Elliss (7.0 sacks for the Saints in '22) in free agency and they're hoping 2022 second-rounder Arnold Ebiketie can make the jump. Gonzalez, a Colorado transfer, is a big-time athlete who is still growing into the position. He has the size, strength and speed -- he ran a 4.38 40 at the combine -- to line up against NFL wide receivers; he just needs to improve in run support.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Paris Johnson Jr. will be ready to start in the NFL sooner than Jones, but Jones' upside is through the roof. Either way, the plan is to keep Justin Fields upright and allow him to build on the progress he made during the second half of the '22 season.
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
Let's bring weird from Austin to Philly with this pick. Is it something of a reach to think the Eagles would take a running back with the 10th pick? Yeah, sure. But the team hosted Robinson on a top-30 visit, and while that doesn't guarantee anything, it is a sign they're interested. And they should be because Robinson is special -- and he'd be a perfect fit in the Eagles' offense, even with the loss of Shane Steichen. And if the club doesn't think he'll be on the board when they're back on the clock at No. 30, then maybe this isn't so weird after all, especially with the top two pass rushers and cornerbacks off the board.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
The Titans added Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill in free agency to bolster the O-line but there's still room for improvement. Skoronski is solid and consistent, which are two of the best things you can say about an offensive lineman. The biggest issue he'll face during the pre-draft process will be arm length and whether his NFL future is at tackle or guard. But like he told us at the combine, there are plenty of NFL offensive tackles who have long arms and struggle too. That's not the final determinant of success. In Tennessee he can play inside on Day 1.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
The Texans got their QB with the No. 2 pick, and now they give him a legit Day 1 playmaker. Smith-Njigba, who barely saw the field during the 2022 season because of injuries, is still one of the top wideouts in the class. Before he shined at the Ohio St. Pro Day, it was easy to forget that JSN led the 2021 Buckeyes in receptions and that corps included first-rounders Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, and future first-rounder Marvin Harrison Jr.
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From
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
Yeah, we know, it's been more than two decades since the Packers took a wide receiver in the first round. That doesn't make it right, and Zay Flowers was the offense for BC. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs showed flashes during their rookie season, and Flowers is more Randall Cobb than Jordy Nelson -- but with the open-field elusiveness that reminds us at times of Antonio Brown. No need to overthink this pick, especially with Jordan Love assuming the starting QB job.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
We would've considered Bijan Robinson here had the Eagles not already taken him. Instead, the Pats help Mac Jones by bolstering the offensive line. Johnson had a solid career at Ohio State, where he played left tackle in '22 and was the team's right guard in '21. That position flexibility could serve him well early in his career.
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From
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 15
The Jets still land a talented offensive lineman after moving back two spots from the Rodgers trade. Wright had Day 3 grades coming into the 2022 season and was dominant for the Vols once he moved to the right side. And he capped that off with a strong Senior Bowl week and pre-draft process. Don't be surprised if he makes his way into the middle of Round 1.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Maryland teammate and fellow cornerback Jakorian Bennett got much of the buzz in the fall but Banks put together the type of season that will land him in the first-round conversation. He's a fluid athlete who is also a big, physical corner who can match up with NFL wide receivers.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Forbes might weigh 166 pounds but he's almost 6-foot-1, and more importantly, is the best ballhawking defensive back in the entire class. He had 14 interceptions his last three seasons, including a mind-boggling six pick-sixes.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Brents is 6-foot-3, ran a 4.53 40 at the combine and had among the best 3-cone and short-shuttle times too. He's long, fast, physical and plays with an edge and the Lions come out of the first round bolstering two of the three levels on defense.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Brian Branch is special; he can play in the slot, near the line of scrimmage or deep center field. And if Nick Saban trusted him at Alabama, that's all you need to know about his NFL prospects. He ran a 4.58 at the combine but he plays much faster than that.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
We know some Seahawks fans don't love this pick here but Torrence is not only going to be a really good pro, he'll be the latest piece in a young, dominant offensive line that will make life easier for both Geno Smith and Ken Walker III. A transfer from Louisiana, he didn't miss a beat in the SEC. Torrence was dominant for Florida last fall, he was dominant during Senior Bowl practices, he was dominant at his pro day, and if history is any guide, he'll be dominant in the NFL too.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
J.C. Jackson is coming off an injury and Mike Davis is entering the last year of his deal. Asante Samuel Jr. is for real, but the Chargers could use depth at the position. Porter is the prototypical big, physical cornerback who looks like he belongs in the NFL. He can sometimes get a little too handsy downfield, but he checks many of the boxes of what teams look for when drafting DBs.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Johnston's an above-the-rim playmaker whose athleticism and contested-catch abilities place him in the running for WR1. Assuming the Ravens and Lamar Jackson get on the same page, finding a No. 1 WR is on the to-do list and Johnston is coming off a dominant season for TCU.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Kancey was just about unblockable at times during the 2022 season for the Panthers and his 6-foot-1, 281-pound frame will (unfairly, perhaps) draw comparisons to Aaron Donald. The biggest physical difference, however, is that while Donald had 32 5/8-inch arms, Kancey's arm length came in at a shade under 31 inches, and that's a major concern when going up against NFL offensive linemen who have 33-34-inch arms. That said, turn on the tape and show us where arm length is an issue for Kancey, who wins consistently with twitch, speed and power.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
At 6-5, 275, Van Ness certainly looks the part, and the expectation is that he can even put on 10-15 more pounds. He's just scratching the surface on his abilities -- he never started a game at Iowa -- and while it's generally a cliche in this case it's also true: Van Ness' best football is in front of him and he's already a really good player.
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Mock Trade from
New York Giants
Round 1 - Pick 25
Matthew Stafford is 35 years old, has battled injuries, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he chose to retire after the 2023 season. Hooker, meanwhile, would likely be firmly in the first-round conversation had he not torn his ACL late in the Vols season. He's well-respected by his coaches and teammates, is a natural leader, and was a legit Heisman candidate before his injury. (The Rams trade picks No. 36 and 69 in 2023 to move up to No. 25)
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Round 1 - Pick 26
We love Drew Sanders as well but teams are really high on Campbell for his leadership, football IQ, how he tested during the pre-draft process, and oh yeah, his tape for the Hawkeyes in '22. Tight end is an option here, too, but the TE class is much deeper than linebacker and Campbell is a Day 1 starter.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Addison isn't a big target, but he's one of the most dynamic players in the country who can line up anywhere. He "only" managed a 4.49 40 at the combine but the tape is the tape -- and it consistently showed that he was regularly the best player on the field who can win at all three levels, playing either outside or in the slot.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Kincaid got the all-clear medically, and there's a real chance he ends up at TE1. You're not drafting him to block anyone -- that's not his game -- but in Cincinnati he'll be yet another hard-to-game-plan-for playmaker catching passes from Joe Burrow.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Murphy turned 21 in early January, and while we'd like to see him play with more consistency, his best football is in front of him. He has all the physical tools you look for in an elite edge defender and it's easy to see him in a few years being dominant. And that, in large part, is what makes him such an interesting prospect.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Nolan Smith missed part of the 2022 season with a pectoral injury but he's is an electric pass rusher when healthy. He's also a freakish athlete -- he ripped off a 4.39 40 at the combine (and was mad about running too slow!). That motor is all over his tape and he'd fill a need in Philly where he could learn from Haason Reddick, who was a similar size coming out of Temple and is now one of the most proficient pass rushers in the league.
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Mock Trade from
Kansas City Chiefs
Round 1 - Pick 31
We were at Levis' pro day and he's built like a linebacker -- and watching him throw the ball in person is something to behold, you can actually hear the passes whistle. But questions remain about his ability to layer the ball to all three levels, as well as some inconsistencies when he rolls to his left. In this, our 'What should happen' mock draft, we have the Titans trading back into the first round to get Levis for the fifth-year option. Ryan Tannehill is 35 and entering the last year of his contract, and it doesn't appear that Malik Willis is in the team's long-term plans. (The Titans trade picks 41 and 72 to move up to No. 31)
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