The NFL has 13 weeks of action in the books, and we're now heading down the final stretch of the regular season with the calendar flipped to December. Just five weeks remain in the 2024 regular season, and the playoff picture is starting to crystalize.
The Kansas City Chiefs have already secured a spot in the postseason, as did the Buffalo Bills after clinching the AFC East title on Sunday night. Those two will continue to duke it out for top seeding in the conference. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans also have a firm grasp of first place in their respective divisions, making the wild-card race in the AFC that much more important.
After the Cincinnati Bengals fell to the Steelers on Sunday, we've eliminated them from these wild-card rankings now that they are 4-8. Still, five teams are vying for three wild-card spots as we begin the mad dash toward the end of the year. And we'll stack them up against one another with our rankings below.
Before we get into the rankings, however, let's take a look at where the AFC playoff race stands coming out of Week 13.
| Seeding | Team (record) |
|---|---|
No. 1 | Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) |
No. 2 | Buffalo Bills (10-2) |
No. 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) |
No. 4 | Houston Texans (8-5) |
No. 5 | Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) |
No. 6 | Baltimore Ravens (8-5) |
| No. 7 | Denver Broncos (8-5) |
Alright, let's get to the rankings!
1. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Even after dropping their matchup to the Eagles on Sunday, we'll still give Baltimore the top spot. They own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers and now have a nicely timed bye in Week 14 to rest up for the final month. Lamar Jackson has largely played at an MVP level this season and is the top quarterback among these five teams. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry could be a vital addition to the offense as the weather starts to become a factor in these late-season games. While Baltimore's defense -- particularly the secondary -- leaves little to be desired, they are playing better as of late. Now, the big question is whether or not Justin Tucker -- who missed two field goals and an extra point on Sunday -- can get back on track.
2. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Los Angeles continues to play well on the defensive side of the ball. In Week 13, they forced Kirk Cousins into four interceptions, which allowed them to come away with a 17-13 win on a short week after playing last Monday. The Chargers defense is top-10 in the league in fewest yards per play allowed (5.2) and leads the league in fewest points allowed per game (15.7). Offensively, Justin Herbert is as talented as any quarterback in the league, but the Chargers are starting to get banged up around him. Running back J.K. Dobbins was recently placed on injured reserve due to a knee injury, and rookie wideout Ladd McConkey left Sunday's win with a knee injury as well. If McConkey -- who had nine catches for 117 yards in Week 13 -- were to miss time, that would put a sizable dent in L.A.'s offensive attack.
3. Denver Broncos (8-5)
Denver was able to keep the remaining clubs vying for that final wild-card spot at an arm's length after outlasting Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns on Monday night to wrap up Week 13. Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has steadily improved as the season has gone on and has made timely throws this season, making Sean Payton look like a genius for drafting and starting him out of the gate. While the team did let Winston explode for nearly 500 yards passing on Monday night, Denver's defense has been strong on balance this season. Even after coming out of Week 13, the unit is still allowing the second-fewest yards per play (4.9) this season and third-fewest points per game (18.0). There is certainly a tier drop between Denver and the top two teams on this list, but their two-game lead could loom large down the stretch and squeak into the postseason.
4. Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Miami is still lurking in the playoff picture even after dropping a game to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving. They have a favorable schedule down the stretch, as it's the fourth-easiest in the NFL based on opponents' combined win percentage. If they were to win out and get to 10 wins, they'd need just a few slip-ups from Denver to possibly leapfrog them in the standings.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins didn't do much to rid themselves of the narrative that they can't play in the cold weather in Week 13, and their final two games are in Cleveland and New York, so it's possible those struggles could rear their heads again as we close out the year.
From a talent perspective, however, Tagovailoa has largely played great since he's returned, and his collection of pass catchers is among the most lethal in the league, headlined by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Even Jonnu Smith has been a key factor at the tight end spot. Defensively, they've been solid and particularly strong on third down, making them a somewhat dangerous team on Wild Card Weekend if they were to sneak in and get the right matchup.
5. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
Indy has a better record than Miami, but there's more that I trust with the Dolphins than I do the Colts, largely due to the inconsistency of quarterback Anthony Richardson. The former first-round pick has been better since returning from his mid-season benching and is 2-1 over this current stretch, but is also still incredibly inaccurate throwing the football. Over the last three games, Richardson has completed 52.4% of his throws. The Colts have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, which should inflate their win total, but a home matchup against the Denver Broncos in Week 15 could make or break their season.
