The 2024 NFL regular season is just about here, and we are about to discover if all our preconceived notions were accurate, or not. If you haven't placed a wager on NFL futures yet, that's what we are here to help you with today.
As I do every year, I asked each of our CBS Sports NFL staffers to give me their best Over/Under win total bets. Before we get started, here's the rundown on the panel: Senior NFL writers Pete Prisco and Will Brinson, plus CBS Sports editors Joel Magaraci and Eric Kernish along with writers John Breech, Ryan Wilson, Jordan Dajani, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Tyler Sullivan, Bryan DeArdo, Cody Benjamin and Garrett Podell.
We will list every win total for context, but not all teams will have a "best bet." Let's go ahead and jump in.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Arizona Cardinals
- Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)
Atlanta Falcons
- Over 9.5 (-140) | Under 9.5 (+120)
Baltimore Ravens
- Over 10.5 (-110) | Under 10.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills
- Over 10.5 (+135) | Under 10.5 (-160)
Dubin: Over 10.5: The last time Buffalo won fewer than 11 games was back in 2019, when the season was still 16 games long and Josh Allen hadn't had his true breakout yet. People are WAY too low on the Bills this year, and if I'm getting plus money (+135) to bet on this team essentially hitting its floor, that feels like stealing.
Brinson: Over 10.5: Buffalo is getting the same treatment in 2024 as the Chiefs got in 2022 when they traded away Tyreek Hill. Stefon Diggs absence hurts but it might end up being a net positive for the locker room and for turning Josh Allen into a better overall distributor of the football. Dalton Kincaid is about to explode on the scene as a star and Khalil Shakir could end up having an outstanding season. Same goes for Curtis Samuel, who had the most productive year of his career with Joe Brady as his OC in 2020 with the Panthers. Buffalo's being slept on and will prove everyone wrong very quickly and throughout the season.
Wilson: Over 10.5: On the surface, going over 10.5 wins seems, well, extreme. But when you look at the schedule, and the full understanding that Josh Allen is poised for his best season yet, I feel like this group is closer to a 13-win outfit. Yes, there are depth concerns at safety, and edge rusher, and Matt Milano's injury could be problematic, but I think the offensive line is quietly one of the best units in the league, James Cook and rookie Ray Davis are poised to put up big numbers in the backfield, and even if Keon Coleman needs some time to get acclimated in a post-Stefon Diggs world, expect the tight ends, starting with Dalton Kincaid to put up big numbers. From Week 11-13 the Bills host the Chiefs, have their bye, host the 49ers and travel to the Rams -- I have them going 3-0 during that stretch. And if that plays out, don't be surprised if they finally make their way back to the Super Bowl.
Carolina Panthers
- Over 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (-105)
Chicago Bears
- Over 9 (+105) | Under 9 (-125)
Cincinnati Bengals
- Over 10.5 (-120) | Under 10.5 (+100)
Cleveland Browns
- Over 8.5 (-140) | Under 8.5 (+120)
Dallas Cowboys
- Over 9.5 (-150) | Under 9.5 (+125)
Edwards: Over 9.5: I went 2-0 on last year's Over/Under projections so fade this year's picks if you believe in water finding its level in gambling. Dallas went 12-5 last year and the core of that team remains intact. If one has concerns about playoff performance as it relates to the Cowboys, I understand, but regular season has not been the issue. Tony Pollard and Dan Quinn are not worth a loss of 2.5 wins.
Denver Broncos
- Over 6 (-140) | Under 6 (+118)
DeArdo: Over 6: Don't sleep on Sean Payton's Broncos, who appear to be a considerably better team than last year's 8-win outfit. Obviously, a lot of the Broncos' success this season rides on Bo Nix and how well the rookie quarterback adjusts to life in the NFL. Fortunately for him, he has a head coach that shouldn't put him in too many bad spots and a defense that should be good enough to bail him out whenever he makes a mistake.
Detroit Lions
- Over 10.5 (-130) | Under 10.5 (+110)
Breech: Over 10.5: The Lions won 12 games last season and I think they're roster is actually even better this year, so I won't be surprised if they win at least 12 games again. Also, the Lions get to play 13 of their first 14 games indoors, which seems like a good thing for a team that that seems to thrive when playing inside.
Green Bay Packers
- Over 9.5 (-160) | Under 9.5 (+135)
Benjamin: Over 9.5: Yes, the Detroit Lions might be the most balanced team in the NFL. Yes, the Chicago Bears have some razzle-dazzle with Caleb Williams. Yes, the Minnesota Vikings have enough seasoned playmakers to stay scrappy. But Jordan Love was the real deal when the lights got brighter in 2023, and he's got another year of chemistry with his young supporting cast. Matt LaFleur's a perennial Coach of the Year candidate as well.
Prisco: Over 9.5: This team is loaded and we saw what Jordan Love can do in the second half of last season. The change in defensive coordinators will really help. They are the team to beat in their division in my mind.
Podell: Over 9.5: The Packers' latest window of contention is just beginning. Quarterback Jordan Love threw for 32 touchdowns in his first regular season as the starter, including an NFL-best 18-1 touchdown to interception ratio from Weeks 11-18, finishing the year on tear. That led to Green Bay squeaking into the postseason as the NFC's seventh seed, and they destroyed the second-seeded Dallas Cowboys 48-32, in a matchup they led 27-0.
Love set the Packers' single game playoff records for passer rating (157.2) and yards per pass attempt (13) after carving up Dallas' top-five defense for 272 passing yards and three touchdowns while completing 16 of his 21 passes. That performance helped the Packers take hold of the honor of being the youngest team to win a postseason game since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger (average age of 25 years and 214 days).
Green Bay could take a huge leap on both sides of the ball in 2024. Their offense broke NFL single-season records for the most catches (302), receiving yards (3,642) and receiving touchdowns (31) by first- or second-year players in 2023. Between Love and the other offensive youngsters' growth, the addition of 26-year-old, 2022 rushing champ Josh Jacobs, the best safety in free agency in Xavier McKinney and a more aggressive defensive coordinator in Jeff Hafley, the Packers could challenge for the NFC North crown and easily break 10 wins.
Houston Texans
- Over 9.5 (-145) | Under 9.5 (+125)
Edwards: Over 9.5: Houston went 10-7 last season. They may have arrived on the season early but, watching that team, it always felt like they were never out of a game. Teams that have that aura consistently win 10+ games a year. The franchise added talent on both sides of the ball, plus another year of continuity should serve them well. Jacksonville Over 8.5 if you want an additional pick.
Indianapolis Colts
- Over 8.5 (+110) | Under 8.5 (-130)
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Kansas City Chiefs
- Over 11.5 (-110) | Under 11.5 (-110)
Magaraci: Under 11.5: Hear me out on this one. I know it's crazy to EVER bet against Patrick Mahomes, but I don't think the Chiefs can avoid a Super Bowl hangover for two straight seasons. And I'm feeling a little crazy.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Over 6.5 (-140) | Under 6.5 (+120)
Kernish: Under 6.5: The Raiders are already in a tough spot being in the AFC West. They also face the always tough AFC North this season. While Las Vegas has a talented defense, its offense might struggle to score enough points if the team falls behind.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Over 9 (+115) | Under 9 (-135)
DeArdo: Under 9: Is someone seeing something I'm not? For whatever reason, the Chargers' win total is set at 9 games despite an unproven receiving corps, a new head coach who hasn't coached in the NFL since 2014 and play in a division that includes the two-time defending Super Bowl champions (along with a Broncos team that I expect will be better than most expect). Barring Justin Herbert playing at an historically-high level, third place in the AFC West is the only thing I see L.A. competing for this year.
Los Angeles Rams
- Over 8.5 (-170) | Under 8.5 (+145)
Brinson: Over 8.5: This number is a mistake and Vegas might know it because the juice has moved so substantially to the over (you can find better than the -170 offered by Caesar's so shop around) even though the actual number hasn't creeped up from 8.5. The Rams dramatically improved their offensive line this offseason and got sneaky additions in Colby Parkinson, Blake Corum and Jordan Whittingham onto the offense. Add in a healthy Cooper Kupp, a second year of Puka Nacua and MVP candidate Matthew Stafford and you have an offense that should dominate all season long. Aaron Donald's loss is a big one but I expect this unit to remain as a top half group despite the HOF walking away. L.A. is a sleeper to win the division and isn't being treated as such.
Breech: Over 8.5: After making the playoffs last season, it seems that the Rams are somehow being slept on heading into 2024. Yes, they lost Aaron Donald, but they still do have a loaded offense that should allow them to hang with anyone. Not only do I think the Rams will hit the over here, but I don't think it's crazy to bet on them to win the division at +350.
Dajani: Over 8.5: The juice continues to get juicier, and for good reason. This number appears to be much too low. I know the Rams lost Aaron Donald on the defensive front, but I'm excited for Braden Fiske and Jared Verse. Plus, Kamren Curl is an underrated addition on the back end.
Offensively, the Rams had a "Big Four" that we didn't talk about enough. L.A. went 6-2 in games with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in 2023. That offense averaged a whopping 28.5 points and 398.9 yards of total offense per game, while Stafford threw 18 touchdowns compared to three interceptions. L.A. averaged 6.8 yards per play with this "Big Four" on the field! Imagine if that group stays healthy in 2024.
Miami Dolphins
- Over 9.5 (-140) | Under 9.5 (+118)
Minnesota Vikings
- Over 7 (+115) | Under 7 (-135)
McCarriston: Under 7: I am once again taking the under, because it's hard for me to imagine this Vikings team surprising me this year. There was some hope with first round pick J.J. McCarthy, but he is out with an injury. The theme of this offseason seems to be injuries for Minnesota and that's hard to overcome. Tight end T.J. Hockenson will remain on the PUP list to start the season and while they do have star wide receiver Justin Jefferson, the supporting cast isn't convincing enough for me to buy the over.
New England Patriots
- Over 4.5 (-115) | Under 4.5 (-105)
Sullivan: Under 4.5: The first season of the post-Bill Belichick era isn't expected to be a pretty one. New England has a brutal schedule and currently has a dramatically low ceiling on offense due to their lack of depth at tackle. While Drake Maye brings promise of a brighter future, it's unlikely he will live up to that potential in Year 1. I would even sprinkle a bit on New England to be the last winless team in the league.
New Orleans Saints
- Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
New York Giants
- Over 6.5 (+120) | Under 6.5 (-140)
Benjamin: Under 6.5: The criticism of Daniel Jones is probably bordering on excessive now, but how can anyone feel even mildly confident in this offensive group, even with Malik Nabers out wide? The front seven should be physical, but in an NFC East where the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have clear playoff-caliber setups and the Washington Commanders should also be better, there's not a lot of room for Brian Daboll's squad to reclaim relevance.
Podell: Under 6.5: It's hard to believe in the New York Giants. Daniel Jones clearly isn't the answer after a lackluster 2023 before tearing his ACL. The further away we get from a 2022 season in which Giants head coach Brian Daboll needed to scheme up an offense where Jones' 6.4 air yards per pass attempt ranked 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in order to keep him on track, the more it looks like an aberration.
New York Jets All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner struggled to talk about Jones in a truthful and positive way after facing him in a joint practice. The 2024 season is about to get ugly for the Giants, so it makes plenty of sense to take the under here. This is a team hoping to be in the running to select Georgia's Carson Beck or Colorado's Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft.
New York Jets
- Over 10 (+100) | Under 10 (-120)
Philadelphia Eagles
- Over 10.5 (-155) | Under 10.5 (+132)
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Over 8.5 (+125) | Under 8.5 (-150)
Kernish: Over 8.5: Death, taxes, winning record for Mike Tomlin's Steelers ... I don't know how he does it some seasons -- and this might be another tough year to get it done based on the schedule -- but i'm not betting against Tomlin leading his (improved?) Steelers to another above-.500 record.
Magaraci: Over 8.5: Sooner or later the Steelers are going to have a losing season under Mike Tomlin. I thought for sure it was going to happen last year, but it didn't. So I'm rolling the dice one more time for plus money.
McCarriston: Under 8.5: Could this finally be the year head coach Mike Tomlin's winning record streak is shattered? For 17 seasons he has landed .500 or over, but I don't have a ton of faith in his team heading into 2024. They got two competent quarterbacks for a good price, but one star would've been better than these two "maybes." And that's what Justin Fields and Russell Wilson are: Maybes. Sure, Wilson has a Super Bowl ring and Fields has potential, but it doesn't seem like a winning formula to me and I predict they'll lose a little over half their games. It doesn't help that the Steelers have the third toughest strength of schedule (based on opponents combined 2023 win record).
San Francisco 49ers
- Over 11 (-135) | Under 11 (+115)
Seattle Seahawks
- Over 8 (-130) | Under 8 (+110)
Sullivan: Over 8: I think the Seahawks are frisky this season. They could very well mess around and make it to the playoffs in the first season under Mike Macdonald. His presence should help bolster Seattle's defense and rookie Byron Murphy II has looked great this summer. On offense, I'm expecting a bounce-back year for Geno Smith under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Seattle's schedule also isn't too daunting, so I like them to get to at least eight wins and be a threat to land a wild card spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Over 8.5 (+150) | Under 8.5 (-175)
Tennessee Titans
- Over 6.5 (+115) | Under 6.5 (-135)
Dubin: Over 6.5: Tennessee went 6-11 last year with the point differential of a 7-win team and added a bunch of talent this offseason. The offensive line cannot be even close to as bad as it was last year and even if Will Levis is just okay, they should be able to hit this number -- and you get +118 on it.
Dajani: Over 6.5: I'll bite. Don't you think with the additions of L'Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, Ernest Jones, T'Vondre Sweat, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd, JC Latham and Lloyd Cushenberry the Titans can improve on their 2023 record by just ONE win?
I don't think the Titans are a Super Bowl contender, but there's reason for optimism with Brian Callahan and Ran Carthon now running things in Tennessee. The offense is going to look very different, and you shouldn't sleep on this new defense led by Dennard Wilson either.
Washington Commanders
- Over 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-105)
Wilson: Over 6.5: This isn't your Dan Snyder-owned Washington Football Team. The Commanders, under owner Josh Harris, has made it abundantly clear that winning is the primary goal; and new GM Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn crushed their first draft, starting with QB Jayden Daniels. But TE Ben Sinnott, CB Mike Sainristil, WR Luke McCaffrey and OT Brandon Coleman will all play big roles in Year 1 in Washington. Other than Daniels, Coleman, who could start the season at left tackle, will play a big role in how quickly this O-line can gel. If if the answers is sooner, rather than later, I love the over of 6.5 wins. I think Daniels has a chance to be special, the only question becomes how quickly can he make it happen.
