Welcome to the NFL playoffs. I'm not the biggest fan of the expanded playoff structure, but I think this wild-card slate will be fun. I'm glad Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos will get a shot at the Buffalo Bills, and the Green Bay Packers could play spoiler up in Philly. The game of the week could be the Washington Commanders vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with phenom Jayden Daniels taking the field against Baker Mayfield.
Let's take a look at some spreads and break down these games. There are some big numbers on the board, but are they too big? Let's jump in.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Not only is this game the least-sexy matchup on paper, but it's also one of the tougher matchups to pick. The Texans are the No. 4 seed, playing at home, yet they are underdogs to the visiting Chargers -- who have clearly received some steam from bettors. That in itself has me leaning to Houston +3, but I can't bring myself to do it.
I have legitimate concerns about this Texans offense. C.J. Stroud has Nico Collins back in the fold, but he's down Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Go back through Houston's schedule ... when is the last time this offense looked good? Nov. 18 against the lowly Dallas Cowboys? Maybe not even then. How about Oct. 13 against the New England Patriots? Now, the Texans have to take on the No. 1 scoring defense in the league to start the postseason.
The Chargers aren't exactly the greatest show on turf either, but did you realize they've put up at least 34 points in three straight games now? One of those scoring explosions came against the Broncos, who I think have a solid defense. Chargers win in a low-scoring affair.
The pick: Chargers -2.5
Projected score: Chargers 20-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Steelers have lost five straight playoff games, and are the first team in NFL history to allow 30 points in five straight playoff games as well. What happened to Russell Wilson? The Steelers enter the postseason having lost four straight games, and Wilson is averaging 174.5 passing yards per game over this stretch. He's also accounted for just five total touchdowns compared to four turnovers. We know the Ravens are a dominant force, and they defeated the Steelers by 17 points in Baltimore just a few weeks ago. I guess I'm surprised to see the line is this big, but I do think it's warranted.
The pick: Ravens -9.5
Projected score: Ravens 31-20
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Bo Nix is looking to join Mark Sanchez and the elite Joe Flacco as the only rookie quarterbacks in playoff history to beat a 13-win team. I truly wish Denver had an easier first-round matchup than playing in Buffalo against eventual NFL MVP Josh Allen. I would be absolutely floored if the Broncos win this matchup, but I think the spread may be a bit too large.
There are so many interesting facets of this matchup that you may not be privy to. The Bills are one of two teams in the Super Bowl era to go an entire season without losing the turnover battle (2011 Packers), while the Broncos have not lost the turnover battle since Week 9. Despite the Bills' success this season, they are 10-7 ATS while the Broncos are 11-5-1 ATS. I think this matchup could be like the Bills' Week 16 win over the Patriots -- close, even though it felt like Buffalo was always going to win. If that doesn't happen, hopefully Nix can get us a backdoor cover.
The pick: Broncos +8.5
Projected score: Bills 26-21
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
The Packers could not have ended the regular season on more of a low note. They fell to the Chicago Bears for the first time in 12 meetings, and lost Christian Watson to a torn ACL in the process. The Packers were supposed to be this Super Bowl sleeper in 2024, and while they went 11-6 and made the playoffs, we aren't really talking about them as a team that can make a potential run.
For the Eagles, they are well-rested. Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Landon Dickerson, Nakobe Dean, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Darius Slay and other starters got Week 18 off, and quarterback Jalen Hurts is expected back as well after sitting out two games with a concussion.
I think the most important factor in this game is the Eagles defense vs. Jordan Love. Philly allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL this season (174.2) and fewest total yards per game this season (278.4). The Eagles were the only team in the NFL to allow fewer than 311 total yards per game.
I don't know if I'm ready to say the Eagles are bound for New Orleans, but I'll take them to cover on Wild Card Weekend.
The pick: Eagles -4.5
Projected score: Eagles 30-21
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)
Hail to the Commanders, hail Jayden Daniels. The former LSU star broke rookie quarterback records for completion percentage (69%) and rushing yards (891) in what was truly a historic campaign. Now, can he power Washington to success in the postseason?
The Commanders got something going for 'em. They are playing in prime time. Washington went 1-1 in prime-time games this season -- with both games coming on the road. They defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in a shootout, but lost to the Eagles. As for the Buccaneers, they went 0-4 in prime time this year! They lost to the Atlanta Falcons, Ravens, Chiefs and Cowboys. Yeah, the Ravens and Chiefs are good teams, but Kirk Cousins' Falcons and the short-handed Cowboys were not.
The Commanders did finish the regular season with the third-worst run defense in the league (137.5 rushing yards allowed per game), but I'm predicting the upset and will hope for a push at worst.
The pick: Commanders +3
Projected score: Commanders 28-27
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN and fubo, try for free)
If it's not Washington at Tampa Bay, I'm most fascinated by this matchup. I think the Rams could actually be a sleeper in the NFC. Yes, they are the No. 4 seed, but L.A. is tied in having the worst record of all playoff teams.
Like the Vikings, this Rams offense is tough to stop when it's clicking. Matthew Stafford has has thrown 11 touchdowns compared to one interception over his last seven games played, Kyren Williams has scored six touchdowns while averaging 91.5 rushing yards per game over his last six contests, and then there's the duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Maybe the Vikings have the advantage on defense, but the Rams' defensive front is underrated. Jared Verse and Braden Fiske both rank top three among rookies in pressures this season, with Verse having the second-most pressures recorded by any rookie since pressures were first tracked. Then, Kobie Turner recorded eight sacks while Byron Young notched 7.5 QB takedowns. The depleted Detroit Lions defense found success pressuring Sam Darnold. Can the Rams do the same?
Really, I just want to see if Darnold can bounce back after the disappointment in Detroit. He looked super shaky, and recorded the third-fewest passing yards in a game with 40 pass attempts in Vikings franchise history, plus season lows in completion percentage (43.9%) and yards per attempt (4.0). Give me the home dog with an upset.
The pick: Rams +1.5
Projected score: Rams 27-24
