Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I hope you don't have any plans tonight, but if you do, you might want to go ahead and cancel them because we have a huge Thursday night game: Commanders at Eagles. Please make sure to enjoy this game, because we have the Browns coming up next Thursday and I'm guessing that won't be as enjoyable.
Of course, we've got a preview of tonight's game coming in today's newsletter, plus we have some playoff projections and we'll be breaking down the latest comments from Deion Sanders, who might be bringing some drama to the 2025 NFL Draft. As a fan of drama, I'm all for it.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Commanders at Eagles
The Washington Commanders (7-3) have been the biggest surprise in the NFL this year and they'll have a chance to take over first place in the NFC East on Thursday night if they can go into Philadelphia and knock off the Eagles (7-2).
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident:
- Why the Commanders can win: Although the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL -- they've given up the second-fewest yards per game (274.1) this year and sixth fewest points per game (17.9) -- that shouldn't intimidate the Commanders. The Eagles have only played two teams that currently have a winning record (Atlanta and Green Bay) and those two teams had a lot of offensive success against Philly, averaging 399.5 yard 25.5 points per game. Basically, with the way Jayden Daniels has this offense playing, it won't be surprising if Washington has some offensive success. The key will be for the Commanders to get their rushing attack going: Washington is 6-0 this year when they rush for at least 140 yards, but 1-3 when they don't.
- Why the Eagles can win: The Commanders are surrendering an average of 142.7 rushing yards per game this year, which is the fifth-worst number in the NFL. The Eagles have the perfect weapon to take advantage of a bad run defense and that weapon is Saquon Barkley, who is currently second in the NFL with 991 rushing yards. This feels like a spot where Barkley would have a big game, but if the Commanders go all in to stop him, that could open things up for Jalen Hurts and the passing attack. Either way, the Eagles offense could be primed to have a big night as they look to take control of the division.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jeff Kerr by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Kenneth Gainwell OVER 13.5 rushing yards (-125 at BetMGM): This is an extremely low number for Gainwell, who has averaged 27.4 yards per game over the Eagles' past five games. He's also gone over this total in four of Philly's past five games and I won't be surprised if we see him do it again tonight.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Zane Gonzalez OVER 6.5 points (-135 at BetMGM): The Commanders have played nine games this year and in ALL NINE of those games, their kicker has scored at least NINE points. The Commanders kicker was Austin Seibert in the first eight games, but it was Gonzalez in Week 10 and he'll also be kicking tonight. Last week, Gonzalez scored nine points and it won't be shocking if he tops that total tonight.
And in case you're wondering, my props are 26-19 on the season (13-8 on kicker props and 13-11 on all other props).
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Kerr's pick: Eagles 33-23 over Commanders
Prisco's pick: Eagles 31-24 over Commanders
My pick: Eagles 27-24 over Commanders
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. NFL playoff projections heading into Week 11
With the NFL schedule now in mid-November, you might be wondering which teams have the best chance of making the playoffs this year. Well, I was also wondering that, so to figure out who's going to make the playoffs, we had Stephen Oh of SportsLine simulate the rest of the season. We then used those simulations to project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
Here's how our projection breaks down for both conferences:
AFC
1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Ravens
4. Texans
5. Steelers
6. Chargers
7. Broncos
First team out: Bengals
NFC
1. Lions
2. Commanders
3. Falcons
4. 49ers
5. Eagles
6. Vikings
7. Packers
First team out: Cardinals
Tonight's game will obviously have a huge impact on the NFC East race. Right now, the Commanders have a 58.4% chance of winning the division, but if they win tonight, that will shoot up to 80.2%. On the other hand, the Eagles will see their chances go up from 41.6% to 60.5% if they beat Washington.
In news that won't surprise you, the Chiefs are currently the team favored to win it all, according to our projection. If you want more details on the projections, including the individual playoff chances for all 32 teams, be sure to click here.
3. Midseason superlatives: Voting on the most disappointing team and biggest overachiever
I know we had our midseason extravaganza last week (You can see it here) and that it's not even the midseason anymore, but we have one more midseason story coming your way and it's coming right now. We rounded up 13 NFL writers and had them vote on several topics from the biggest disappointment to the biggest overachiever.
Let's check out the results of our poll (Teams are only listed if they received more than one vote in their category)
Most disappointing team
1. Jets (6 votes)
2. Cowboys (3.5 votes)
Breakdown: These were the only two teams that got more than one vote and it's not surprising. Both of these teams were viewed as Super Bowl contenders, but the only way they're going to be watching the Super Bowl this year is if they buy a ticket to the game.
Biggest overachieving team
1. Commanders (4.5 votes)
2. Steelers (2.5 votes)
T-3. Vikings (2 votes)
T-3. Cardinals (2 votes)
Breakdown: The Commanders won this vote, but don't sleep on the Cardinals. They've managed to put together a 6-4 record despite the fact that they've played the second-toughest schedule in the NFL through 10 weeks. Their first 10 opponents had a combined winning percentage of .581. Only the Buccaneers have faced a more difficult slate (.658).
Team most likely to break out during the second half of the season
1. Buccaneers (4 votes)
2. 49ers (3 votes)
3. Bengals (2 votes)
Breakdown: If you're wondering why the Bucs are on top, it's because they have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. Their final seven opponents have a combined winning percentage of .328. Only one remaining team on their schedule currently has more than three win (Chargers). As for the other two teams here, it's pretty self-explanatory. The 49ers finally have Christian McCaffrey back while the Bengals seem to be on the cusp of being good if they can stop shooting themselves in the foot.
If you want to see all the superlatives that we voted on, be sure to check out our full story here
4. Answering the NFL's biggest questions heading into Week 11
As we get ready to head into Week 11, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered around the NFL and the good news for us is that we have Jordan Dajani here to answer them.
Let's take a look at two of his biggest questions this week:
- Who's in the best spot to land the top QB in the 2025 NFL Draft? "If the season ended today, the Jacksonville Jaguars would own the top pick. They just signed Trevor Lawrence to a record contract, so they probably aren't drafting a quarterback. With the in mind, keep an eye on the Giants, the Titans, the Browns and Raiders as we inch closer to the end of the regular season. All four of those teams currently hold a top-five pick."
- Are the Steelers actually Super Bowl contenders? "The Steelers have an incredible defense and Russell Wilson has brought some consistency to the offensive side of things. They are a good team, but I don't think we can call them 'Super Bowl contenders.' Pittsburgh has started four different seasons 7-2 or better under Mike Tomlin. They won zero playoff games in the previous three instances."
Steelers fans, please direct your hate mail to Jordan and not me.
Also, you can check out the rest of Jordan's story here.
5. Deion Sanders might throw a wrench in the 2025 NFL Draft
The NFL Draft is usually a pretty simple process: A team picks a player and then that player signs a contract with the team. However, things may not be so simple next year, and that's because it sounds like Deion Sanders might throw a wrench into things.
During an interview on FS1 Wednesday, the Colorado coach was asked if he might "step in" if the the wrong team tries to draft his son, Shedeur Sanders.
Here's what Sanders had to say:
- Sanders said he'll step in if the wrong team tries to draft his son. "Yeah, but I'm not gonna do it publicly, I'd do it privately." Sanders said of possibly stepping in. "I'm going to be a dad until the cows come home." The Colorado coach also said he'd step in to make sure two-way star Travis Hunter doesn't go to the wrong team, either.
- What Sanders is looking in an NFL team. Deion didn't name any specific teams for his son, but he did give a description of what he wants to see from a team that might draft Shedeur. "Somebody that can handle the quarterback that he is, somebody that can handle, understanding what he's capable of. Someone that has had success in the past handling quarterbacks or someone in an organization that understands what they're doing. Not just throwing you out there amongst the wolves, if you don't have the support and the infrastructure of the team."
- Sanders won't be worrying about the offensive line. Deion said the structure of the organization is way more important than that the line looks like. "Forget the line, he's played with lines that haven't been great, but he's been able to do his thing, but just the infrastructure of the team, the direction of where we're going."
- Sanders also responded to the Cowboys coaching speculation. When Michael Irvin brought up the possibility of Sanders coaching the Cowboys, Deion gave him a six-word response, "I love it where I am." Deion then took the FS1 crew on a video tour of his office, which is inside Folsom Field and has a view of the mountains.
The craziest scenario would be Sanders going to the NFL and then drafting his son. As things stand now, our four mock draft writers have Shedeur headed to three different locations: New York (Giants), Las Vegas and Cleveland. Out of those three teams, I could see Deion and Shedeur teaming up with the Raiders.
If you want to know where our draft writers have Travis Hunter going, you can see all of our mock drafts here.
6. Extra points: Aaron Rodgers still planning to play in 2025
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Aaron Rodgers wants to play another season. With the Jets struggling and Rodgers taking a beating this season, there was some thought that he might want to retire after the 2024 season, but that's not the case. During his weekly press conference on Wednesday, Rodgers said he would like to return in 2025. The four-time MVP turns 41 on Dec. 2.
- NFL combine staying in Indianapolis for another year. The NFL has been tossing around the idea of moving the combine to a different location, but if that happens, it won't be until 2027 at the earliest. The league reached a deal with Indianapolis that will keep the combine in the Indiana city through the 2026 season.
- Jon Gruden lands a deal with Barstool Sports. The former Raiders coach has found a new job. Gruden will once again be working in the media after landing a multiyear deal with Barstool Sports. Gruden had been visiting with several NFL teams over the18 months, including the Chiefs and Saints, but he never landed a job. Instead, he'll be taking his first media job since leaving ESPN to coach the Raiders in 2018.
- J.J. McCarthy has second knee surgery. The Vikings rookie had to undergo a second knee surgery this week as he continues to work his way back from a torn meniscus. The 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft needed another procedure done on his right knee to mitigate swelling that occurred after he ramped up his physical therapy work. You can read more details on McCarthy's situation here.