Inside the tightest division races in NFL history: Bengals surging, Colts crashing out and Rams on the rise

In a year with potentially the most wide-open Super Bowl race ever, we're going to be treated to a nice appetizer over the final five weeks of the regular season as we watch how the playoff and division races play out. 

This is the latest point in any season in NFL history where five divisions are separated by a game or less. The top two teams in the AFC North (Ravens and Steelers), AFC South (Jaguars and Colts) and NFC North (Bears and Packers) all play each other on Sunday, too.

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The other division races aren't over yet, either. The Bills might have another comeback in them. They won the AFC East in 2021, when they were two games back with four to play, and in 2023, when they were three games back with five to play. The Cowboys have made up two games in the NFC East over the last two weeks, putting the Eagles on notice.

Let's lock in on the five divisions with razor-thin margins, though. 

AFC North

Contenders: Ravens (6-6), Steelers (6-6), Bengals (4-8)

Odds: Ravens (-195), Steelers (+230), Bengals (+850)

How the AFC North will be won

The Steelers and Ravens are tied for the best record in the AFC North entering Sunday's showdown and their two remaining games (Week 14 and Week 18) will probably decide the fate of the division. If either team gets the sweep, it could be a wrap. The Ravens beat the Steelers in the final two meetings last year, including a 28-14 beatdown in the Wild Card round. Both teams are struggling in certain respects recently and Lamar Jackson has a 3-4 career record vs. the Steelers, so don't be surprised if they split the season series.

It's hard to have any faith in the Steelers right now. They are 2-5 in their past seven games. Aaron Rodgers and the offense looked like a mess in Week 13, with him playing through multiple fractures in his left wrist. He's calling out his wide receivers in the media and the defense is getting destroyed on the ground one week and picked apart through the air the next. 

This offense has zero explosiveness. Rodgers has under 225 pass yards in five straight games, the longest streak in a season in his career. It's borderline shocking to see DK Metcalf has 144 receiving yards in the last five games (84th in the NFL). The Steelers have not completed a single deep throw (20+ air yards) in that span, the Steelers' longest drought in the last two decades. They have the fewest completions (seven) and the lowest completion rate (20%) on deep throws this season.

The Steelers' defense is like a boat with a leak. When you plug one, another one is exposed. The secondary has improved since Jalen Ramsey was moved to safety in Week 9, but the run defense just got gashed for 249 yards against the Bills. Either way, the Steelers' formula is getting tired to the point where it is probably time for a change, as the "Fire Tomlin" chants suggest. Pittsburgh has been outplayed for the last several years, but continues to grind out wins by winning a majority of their close games and taking advantage of turnovers. Even this team might not have enough juice to keep Tomlin's streak without a losing record alive. I found it interesting that they haven't been in the top five in Super Bowl odds at any point over the last five years. They haven't been a legit Super Bowl contender in such a long time that the phrase, "sh*t or get off the pot," comes to mind. They have the highest floor but lowest ceiling possible and while Tomlin is clearly a great head coach, it's time for a change of scenery.

Normally I would say the Ravens are inevitable in the AFC North, especially since they are 5-1 in the past six games and have fixed their defense (mostly), but the Bengals' 32-14 win in Week 13 over the Ravens proves this division isn't wrapped up yet. If I'm a Ravens fan, I'm panicking about Lamar Jackson's play. He ranks fourth worst in the NFL in EPA per dropback (-0.20) in five games since returning from his hamstring injury. Only Rodgers, JJ McCarthy and Shedeur Sanders are worse in that span. Jackson has 98 rushes and 3.2 yards per rush in the last five games, the worst five-game stretch of his career in both categories. It's going to be tough to sweep the Steelers given Baltimore's offensive struggles and how historically close these games have been. Factor in the Ravens' other three games are against the Bengals, Patriots and Packers, and it's going to be a grind to get to 9-8 or 10-7.

That means the door is open for the Bengals, who were 3-8 entering Week 13 when they smashed the Ravens by 18 points in Baltimore in Joe Burrow's return from a turf toe injury. Sure, the Bengals have a historically bad defense, but it was also bad last year when Cincinnati ran the table to finish 9-8 after a 4-8 start. Burrow has won eight straight starts and owns this part of the calendar (18-2 in the last 20 games in December and January), plus the Bengals finish the season with three very winnable games against the Dolphins, Cardinals and Browns after games at the Bills and against the Ravens. 

Prediction: Bengals

My head says Ravens, but my heart says Bengals. The Steelers and Ravens look vulnerable, and they could easily split their season series, creating a path for both to also finish 8-9 (or worse). The thing that really plays in the Bengals' favor is the tiebreaker. If they beat the Ravens in Week 15 and the Browns in Week 18, they would be 5-1 in the division and 3-1 against the Ravens and Steelers, which would virtually guarantee the tiebreaker over both teams. 

I think the Bengals will win the division at 8-9 or 9-8.

AFC South

Contenders: Jaguars (8-4), Colts (8-4), Texans (7-5)

Odds: Colts (+135), Jaguars (+140), Texans (+320)

How the AFC South will be won

Similar to the AFC North, the AFC South features a tie at the top between two teams that will meet twice in the final five weeks. Plus, there's a third contender lurking. 

The Colts and Jaguars both have 8-4 records entering Sunday's matchup in Jacksonville. How their final two matchups play out could decide the division and it favors the Jaguars if things keep moving in the direction they have been lately. 

The Jaguars have won three straight games and it would have been four straight if not for an epic collapse vs. the Texans. Trevor Lawrence is finally showing signs of life thanks to the Jakobi Meyers trade. Mayers has caught 18 of 21 targets from Lawrence in four games, including all 18 catchable passes. It's a breath of fresh air after Lawrence was the victim of a historic number of drops through eight games. 

Trevor Lawrence by target since trade deadline

Lawrence ranks sixth in the NFL in pass success rate in his last four games compared with 29th in his first eight games. His counterpart on Sunday, Daniel Jones, is 23rd in pass success rate in the last four games after he was first in the league through eight games. If that reversal of fortunes keeps up, that's probably your answer on who wins this division.

The Colts are 1-3 in their past four games after a 7-1 start and all signs point toward a historic collapse. The only team to miss the playoffs after a 7-1 start in the last 29 seasons was the 2012 Bears.

The Colts' offense was on a historic pace, but has been pedestrian in the last month. If you didn't trust Daniel Jones, you were waiting for a game like the one he had against the Steelers, when he had five turnovers and was sacked five times. Jonathan Taylor single handedly powered the Colts to a win over the Falcons, but otherwise, he's been bottled up in the last month. 

Colts this season

Now, Jones has reportedly been dealing with a fractured fibula in the last two weeks (potentially a hairline fracture), which has limited his mobility. His only rush attempt vs. the Texans last week was a technicality because it came on an aborted snap. He had one attempt on the run and he was 2-of-8 passing vs. pressure in that game per NFL Pro Insights. The Texans just tossed Josh Allen around like a rag doll, so there's no shame in Jones' performance there, but it's hard to dismiss this injury and his struggles in crunch time in the Colts' last two games against the Chiefs and Texans.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is still out and Sauce Gardner is out indefinitely with a calf injury. It'll make this week's game in Jacksonville (where they've lost nine straight games) even tougher. Indianapolis also has the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL and its slumping offense will face a top-seven defense in four of its final seven games. 

Colts final five games

We also can't rule out the Texans, who are a game back of first place and the hottest team in the division. They are 7-2 after a 0-3 start and have won four straight, including games vs. the Jaguars, Bills and Colts.

They are winning close games and have the best (or second-best, depending on how you feel about Denver) defense in the NFL. They are going for a third straight division title and it could come down to a Week 18 game vs. the Colts.

Prediction: Jaguars

This is a tough call. I think we can rule out the Colts based on their offensive slump, injuries and the schedule. 

The Texans are tempting, but they are still a game back in the division and have a horrible run game and offensive line that might not be able to make up for their defense. A loss vs. a desperate Chiefs team (in Kansas City) on Sunday would really put them in a hole.

The Jaguars are the most balanced team in the AFC South with the Jakobi Meyers trade and recent returns of Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange from injury. I like Lawrence and Liam Coen to do enough to win this division.

NFC North

Contenders: Bears (9-3), Packers (8-3-1), Lions (7-5)

Odds: Packers (-135), Bears (+145), Lions (+1100)

How the NFC North will be won

I went against the odds in the AFC, but I'm coming to my senses in the NFC. This division comes down to how legit the Bears are, as they have three games left vs. the Packers and Lions.

The Bears have been a great story (and I laid out how they went from worst-to-first two weeks ago), but I think they are heading toward regression based on the following stats:

• Comebacks: tied NFL record with five comeback wins in the final two minutes
• Takeaways: NFL-high 26 this season
• Schedule: Second-easiest schedule played so far

Those stats suggest the 9-3 start, while great, is not sustainable. Regression might be a week or two later than expected after Chicago throttled the defending champs in Philadelphia (and rushed for 287 yards!). We also can't ignore the Bears just beat an Eagles team that the Packers just lost to at home (10-7, too). 

The Packers aren't bulletproof either. They've beaten the Lions twice this year, but really nobody else. They are 0-6 over the last two seasons vs. teams with a .600+ win percentage. They lost to the Browns and Panthers at home this season.

Despite all of that, they are the favorites in the NFC North for a reason. They are the more balanced team. The Bears are 23rd in defensive efficiency and the Packers are 13th. Chicago's defense is suspect (even with starting CBs Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon returning last week) and they have zero pass rush (second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL). The Packers are solid on both sides of the ball. Micah Parsons is coming on strong and could have a field day on Sunday as Caleb Williams holds onto the ball longer than anyone else in the NFL.

The Packers have a better quarterback and this is Jordan Love's time of year. He has 34 touchdown passes and two interceptions in his career as a starter in Week 11 or later, the best ratio in NFL history (minimum 500 attempts). Green Bay's offense could get stronger with the looming returns of Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden. 

Plus, the Packers had won 11 straight against the Bears before their Week 18 loss in 2024. Love left that game in the second quarter, so in my mind, Green Bay's ownage of Chicago carries on and will be the difference in the NFC North.

I'm ruling out the Lions. The fourth-down magic has run cold (0-7 in the last three games), and they haven't won back-to-back games in almost two months. The loss of both coordinators hurts and they could be in big trouble in their next two games vs. the Cowboys and Rams. It also doesn't help that Amon-Ra St. Brown could miss Thursday's game and Sam LaPorta is out for a while. 

Prediction: Packers

Ben Johnson has done a great job in Chicago, but the Packers are the better team, and they should show it vs. their rivals at Lambeau Field in Week 14.

NFC South

Contenders: Buccaneers (7-5), Panthers (7-6)

Odds: Buccaneers (-550), Panthers (+430)

How the NFC South will be won

This division is a wrap unless the Panthers sweep the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are getting healthier with the returns of Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin (plus Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan will return at some point) and they have a very easy schedule the rest of the way (Saints, Falcons, Dolphins and Panthers twice). The only reason this division is so close is that Tampa was ravaged by injuries to most of its offensive line, its top running back, and its top three wide receivers for parts of the year. 

The big difference in the Panthers' schedule is that they host the Seahawks in Week 17. Like the Bears, they've been a good story this year, but their magic is going to run out soon. They've shown flashes (wins vs. the Packers and Rams) but are too inconsistent (lost vs. the Saints and laid an egg on Monday night in San Francisco). 

There are elements of regression coming here, too. The Panthers are 5-0 in games decided by three points or fewer this year. Ironically, the Buccaneers have the same record, but I'll give them more of the benefit of the doubt, given their experience at quarterback. The Panthers have 112 points on drives after a fourth-down conversion this year, already the second-most in a season since 2000 (behind the 2024 Commanders). They needed all the fourth-down heroics they could get on Sunday as Bryce Young threw two long touchdown passes on those downs to upset the Rams.

Prediction: Buccaneers

The Panthers are also 0-4, averaging 13.8 points per game, against the Buccaneers with Bryce Young. I highly doubt Carolina will sweep Tampa Bay, so this will be the Buccaneers' fifth straight division title, and it could be the fourth straight with 10 or fewer wins, which has never been done before.

NFC West

Contenders: Rams (9-3), Seahawks (9-3), 49ers (9-4)

Odds: Rams (-145), Seahawks (+210), 49ers (+500)

How the NFC West will be won

The NFC West will come down to whoever wins in Week 16 on Thursday night between the Rams and Seahawks in Seattle. 

The Rams are already in the driver's seat with an easier schedule and have already won the first head-to-head meeting. A win in that game would seal the deal. A loss would keep the Seahawks alive. I'll take the Rams to finish them off as Stafford is 19-4 in a Rams uniform in December through February. 

Both teams have been great this year and are great on both sides of the ball, but ultimately, who really trusts Sam Darnold, especially after his four-interception game vs. the Rams three weeks ago? Turnovers have bitten Darnold and the Seahawks in the clutch in all three of their losses this year to the 49ers, Buccaneers and Rams. I think that will be their undoing in this division race. They are on pace for 31 turnovers. No team has won a division with 30+ turnovers since the 2015 Broncos, who had the best defense in the league.

The 49ers are right there in the standings, but they still have three tough games against the Colts, Bears and Seahawks, and are already one game back in the loss column. If you can't trust Sam Darnold, it's hard to trust Brock Purdy after his disastrous outing on Monday night vs. the Panthers when he threw an interception on three straight drives. Christian McCaffrey has been a revelation, but this is still a 49ers team that ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per rush this year (3.5). A Shanahan team (coached by Mike or Kyle) has not finished in the bottom 10 in the NFL in that category since Mike Shanahan with the Los Angeles Raiders in 1988. 

The 49ers are clearly motivated after last year's Super Bowl hangover. They've capitalized on an easy schedule and Robert Saleh has squeezed every ounce of talent possible out of this defense, but they aren't explosive enough on offense and won't be able to overcome the loss of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to win this division. They are still a good bet to win 11 games and get a Wild Card spot, though. 

Prediction: Rams

The Rams' loss in Carolina in Week 13 will be a blessing in disguise. The Panthers stole the game by turning Stafford over three times and scoring 17 points after fourth-down conversions. I'm betting this will light a fire under the Rams and propel them to a division crown.