The 2015 NFL regular season is complete, and most teams are now resigned to showing up for a final day of work on Monday, conducting exit interviews, grabbing industrial-sized garbage bags, and cleaning out their lockers. Many of the players around the league will be moving on. Not For Long. Or so they call it.
So it's never too soon to start to take a look forward at the upcoming offseason. It lasts longer than the regular season and is never dull. While the start of the new league year in March might seem a ways off, the work will begin well before then for teams trying to retain their own talent. Talks with agents, in many cases, began during the season and will continue in the weeks ahead. By the time the combine rolls around, a few weeks after the Super Bowl, many deals will be more or less in place and the opportunity for teams to keep top talent will have essentially passed (save for using the franchise tag designation).
Free agency in the NFL is generally fool's gold. It rarely fills the holes one might think, and the biggest contracts are often the most costly. That's all the more reason to keep the best players already on the roster. So here's an early look at the free agent I'd try to prioritize for each NFL team:
Arizona Cardinals | |
| C Lyle Sendlein: A savvy veteran who keeps the line anchored and whom Carson Palmer can rely on. He's a big part of this line finally coming together and jelling and Bruce Arians will want to keep this unit intact after years of rebuilding. Right tackle Bobbie Massie is younger with more upside, but I like the grizzled center's role here on a team in Super Bowl mode. | |
Atlanta Falcons | |
| LB Paul Worrilow: It says a lot about the state of this team's roster than it's .500 and I can't justify too many must-keep guys. Worrilow has been a good find for them going from un-drafted kid to solid starter. This defense doesn't have enough talent to let the solid starter that it does have in Worrilow walk away. | |
Baltimore Ravens | |
| K <player idref=er: It was a bit of a down year by his standards, but he is a stud and relishes clutch kicks and this offense is going to need a boost next year, again. Kalechi Osemele should be the guy, but with the Ravens already paying guard Marshal Yanda big money on an extension, recent history would tell you Osemele is the next young talent to walk in free agency. Maybe they'll ante up. | |
Buffalo Bills | |
| G Richie Incognito: One of the few feel-good stories during another poor Bills' season. He's stayed out of trouble and played well and fought hard -- and cleanly -- which has not always been the case. The Bills need to keep some of this offensive line in place and with all the money already tied up in their defense, I'm not sure LB Nigel Bradham is the pick here, though they would very much like to keep him, too. | |
Carolina Panthers | |
| FB Mike Tolbert: I realize Josh Norman will be the obvious choice here for most, though I wonder about his makeup and volatility long term and also how he matures once he gets paid. I'd consider franchising him. Tolbert is a heart and soul guy who will come much cheaper who makes that run game go. This is simply a much better offense with him around and I love seeing teams keep their glue guys. | |
Chicago Bears | |
| WR Alshon Jeffery: He can change games and is a dynamic force when healthy. I'll let Matt Forte, an older running back, walk. But not Jeffrey. Even in an era when more receivers seem NFL ready, I have to wonder about Kevin White's health and with coordinator Adam Gase about to depart for a head coaching gig, making do with less might not be the way to go. | |
Cincinnati Bengals | |
| CB Adam Jones: He might be the best cover slot corner in the NFL and is a dervish on special teams. Even on a team with so many key pending free agents -- Marvin Jones, Leon Hall, Mohamed Sanu, Andrew Smith, Reggie Nelson, George Iloka -- I'm making Jones a priority. He's older but playing his best football ever and his example in turning his life around resonates positively in that locker room. Plus, that secondary is already a little suspect right now compared to some other position groups on this roster. | |
Cleveland Browns | |
| WR Travis Benjamin: Already starved for offensive talent, losing him would be tough. He's a big play guy who can beat people deep and had some early chemistry with Johnny Manziel. Mitchell Schwartz has come along at right tackle and Tashaun Gipson looked like a top safety before injuries struck last year, but I'll go Benjamin here. Reality is, for as weak as this roster is and all the cap space the Browns have, keeping the talent they do have shouldn't be an issue. Spend smartly. | |
Dallas Cowboys | |
| CB Morris Claiborne: They declined to pick up his fifth year option but need to pay him now. The Brandon Carr experiment has not worked and losing the best corner they have would just create more voids on this roster. Jerry Jones spends on his own. I could see him bringing back Greg Hardy as well at the right price -- or at least exploring it -- even with all of the drama that transaction created in 2015. | |
Denver Broncos | |
| LB Von Miller: Denver will save money and cap space letting a bunch of veterans go this offseason, undoubtedly (Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware, to name a few) but this is a kid they have to keep. Elite pass rushing skills. Stayed out of trouble since his suspension. Game changer. Going to have to win with defense for a while I presume. Pay the man. Franchise him. Whatever it takes. | |
Detroit Lions | |
| DE Jason Jones: Generally a strong value play who gives plenty of production for dollar spent. It looked like Haloti Ngata was slowing down for part of this season and Jones is younger and cheaper and the Lions can't keep losing oodles of defensive line talent year after year. The Lions actually should find a way to keep both these guys. | |
Green Bay Packers | |
| DT B.J. Raji: You could make a case for CB Casey Hayward, K Mason Crosby and a few others, but this team is not what it used to be up front, and Raji has bounced back to perform well on a prove-it contract. They have drafted a bunch of corners lately (they always seem to find them) and you can always franchise a kicker without it impacting your cap much. | |
Houston Texans | |
| G Brandon Brooks: He played very well under pressure and was a big part of this line coming together and helping to save a season that seemed about to spiral into the abyss at the midpoint. He's a gamer, and after purging several recent draft picks, is the kind of kid I'd think they'd want to reward for his contribution while he was on his rookie contract. | |
Indianapolis Colts | |
| TE Dwayne Allen: They'll almost certainly pick TE Coby Fleener, who played with AB Andrew Luck at Stanford. And yes, Allen has been hurt a fair amount. But he has great athleticism and can be a matchup problem and I frankly think he'll end up providing more bang for your buck. K Adam Vinatieri is still getting it done at age 43 as well. | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| P Bryan Anger: This is partly a residual of the fact this team is still very much rebuilding and searching for adequate talent. But also the fact that this cat was drafted in the third round in 2013. And he's competent enough. And there are few other viable candidates. So, um, yeah. | |
Kansas City Chiefs | |
| S Eric Berry: Not a better story in the NFL this season than Berry returning to peak form after battling cancer and leading this defense into the playoffs. No way you let him leave. Not possible. Bring Tamba Hali back as well -- he'll do something relatively team-friendly -- while CB Sean Smith might prove to be too steep. There are a lot of options here. | |
Miami Dolphins | |
| DE Olivier Vernon: He's not having his greatest season and few on this defense are, but this defensive line is supposed to be a strength and Cameron Wake might not be back. They are going to need people on the edge who can make a difference. I'd make a case for RB Lamar Miller here, but they barely used him when they had him on the cheap. | |
Minnesota Vikings | |
| LB Chad Greenway: He's been a heart-and-soul guy for them for a long time and remains a key cog in Mike Zimmer's defense. He's getting up there in years but his presence in the locker room matters and sends a strong message to the younger players by finding the right price point to keep him around. | |
New England Patriots | |
| RB LeGarrette Blount: The reality is the Pats are in phenomenal cap shape and have no pressing free agents to deal with at all. They are uniquely positioned to keep crushing it. Blount got hurt before contract talks could begin and bringing him and Dion Lewis back from injury isn't a bad idea -- neither will break the bank -- while I am sure they'll draft a back as well. This selection speaks to how well this team is put together for 2016 … and beyond. | |
New Orleans Saints | |
| RB Tim Hightower: The issue will be purging this roster, and figuring out Drew Brees' future, not re-signing guys. Frankly there are few top candidates for doing so. But Hightower's play after being out of the league so long has been a revelation and might as well lock him up, with C.J. Spiller likely gone and Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson both coming off season-ending injuries. Ben Watson's amazing season at age 35 merits a return at more money as well. But the Saints have a ton of offseason work to do to reduce cap, first. | |
New York Giants | |
| DE Jason Pierre-Paul: After going through so much tumult with him this offseason and the ordeal with his hand and the fireworks and figuring out a one-year stopgap deal, it might as well be worth it to find a structure that works moving forward. They need pass rush, badly, with JPP or without. He's been a lifelong Giant and after going through a life-altering ordeal you would think there's a way to keep that going. | |
New York Jets | |
| DE Muhammad Wilkerson: This will be the top defensive free agent on the market, by far, if he is allowed to test the waters. He's a dominant pass rusher from the inside or out and a big-time run stuffer as well. He's versatile and disruptive and he will have suitors all over the league. I would expect Jets to franchise him, but he won't come cheap on a long-term deal. | |
Oakland Raiders | |
| LT Donald Penn: This franchise is finally turning the corner, and losing talent now is silly. He's been exceptional protecting Derek Carr's blindside and has several quality years left in him. In an era with so few teams able to put together a half-decent offensive line, the Raiders -- with all of their abundant cap space and still not at the CBA-mandated spending floor -- have no excuse not to bring him back. Punter Marquette King is a beast, too, and it's a no-brainer trying to get him signed before March as well. | |
Philadelphia Eagles | |
| DE Vinny Curry: Not a ton of options here either, and I'm not a Sam Bradford believer at this point. Not sure which defense they will be running in 2016, but they need pass-rushing options and Curry did have nine sacks in 2014. With Chip Kelly gone, maybe he develops more under the next staff. | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| LT Kelvin Beachum: The team tried to sign him before the season but didn't get close and then he suffered a season-ending injury. The Steelers might be able to get him at much more of a bargain now and while the Steelers offensive line remained stout without him, Beachum had been really coming into his own. | |
St. Louis Rams | |
| CB Trumaine Johnson: Some might make the case for Janoris Jenkins here, and the Rams would do well to retain this tandem. I know other teams covet Johnson and he comes without some of the baggage of Jenkins. Big athletic corners are always in demand. The upside here is tremendous. | |
San Diego Chargers | |
| TE Ladarius Green: Antonio Gates can't play forever and Green flashes very well at times. With Eric Weddle moving on and Malcom Floyd retiring, keeping this young move tight end around could be key. Even if they re-sign Gates, having a tandem of pass catching tight ends would be big. | |
San Francisco 49ers | |
| G Alex Boone: He is an old-school brawler who sets the tone and has become a beloved figure in that locker room and city. The 49ers have holes to fill all over the roster and no reason to lose a guard who frankly has more value to them than he might elsewhere. I doubt Trent GM Baalke wants him going anywhere a year after the loss of Mike Iupati certainly stung some. | |
Seattle Seahawks | |
| LB Bruce Irvin: Another guy who didn't get the 5th-year option designation but who would be worth keeping around. Can the Seahawks keep Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett long-term? The need for speed on the outside is very real there and they took a chance drafting him in the first place. Wonder if they can figure this out -- I know things got dicey a year ago -- while I expect they let LT Russell Okung test the free-agent waters. | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| CB Sterling Moore: Not a lot of obvious guys, here. Bucs have some late interest in retaining Doug Martin, but after trying to trade him in the past and him riding out a few regimes, we'll see if that ship has sailed. Running back is a fairly replaceable position and Moore has developed well over the past season. | |
Tennessee Titans | |
| DT Sammie Lee Hill: This is slim pickins' here my friends. Good luck with this roster to whomever takes over the Titans. You need help all over. Except at quarterback, which is huge. I'll go with trying to make that defensive front sound and keep Hill around. Might as well spend the money somewhere. | |
Washington Redskins | |
| QB Kirk Cousins: After searching so long for a capable and sound starter, Cousins led them to an improbable division title and has been exceptional the past two months and leads the NFL in completion percentage. He's opened up the offense and his teammates love him and the Skins ain't letting him get away. An Alex-Smith type contract could very well be in his future. | |
My awards picks
I'm not a huge awards guy, but no better time than now to hand out a few with the dust settling on this regular season. Cam Newton was the most impactful player on the field regardless of position most weeks (to say nothing of being one of the more physically imposing), and he led a team to a remarkable record. He's your MVP, folks. This isn't a playoff team without him. And give me Ron Rivera as the coach of the year in a tight race with Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians and Andy Reid.
Tom Brady did more with less once again and I'd go with him as the offensive player of the year. I'm inclined to go with Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald as my defensive player of the year. What he does from an inside position week in and week out is pretty remarkable. He's an old-school (bleep) kicker in the trenches.
Jameis Winston was clean off the field and very solid on it and despite having key personnel out of the lineup much of the year and not a great cast around him he kept the Bucs relevant far longer than I thought he could. Give him the offensive rookie of the year. Marcus Peters was a star from Week 1 on, he makes plays on the ball and takes it to the house and the Chiefs corner is my defensive rookie of the year. The Jets changed a roster and a culture and made excellent moves on the cheap for Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick and others, and I'll go with GM Mike Maccagnan as my executive of the year.
Keep an eye on Cardinals' Buckner
Cardinals defensive line coach Brentson Buckner has flown entirely under the radar in the media but with the coaching carousel about the spin, I'd keep an eye on him. He's a fast-rising coach on Bruce Arians' staff who is widely endorsed there and has major support from players. People gravitate to him and it's only a matter of time before Arians' staff starts to get plucked apart. He will most definitely warrant strong consideration for a coordinator position as new head coaches put together their staffs, and I wouldn't be shocked if he got the opportunity to interview for a head coaching position, either.