Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
The NFL's final Thursday game of the season was held last night and it went out with a bang. Actually, I take that back, it was only a bang if you like games with a lot of punts and not a lot of points. The Seahawks and Bears combined for more punts (13) than points (9) in a 6-3 Seattle win that ended up being the lowest scoring game of the NFL season so far.
We'll be handing out grades for both teams in today's newsletter, plus we'll be taking a look at the miracle scenarios that the Bengals, Dolphins and Colts need to make the playoffs. And as always, we'll have some picks and bold predictions to take you into the weekend.
Oh, and don't forget, we have Saturday football tomorrow: There will be three games on NFL Network starting at 1 p.m. ET with Chargers at Patriots followed by Broncos at Bengals (4:30 p.m. ET). The nightcap will be Cardinals at Rams (8:10 p.m. ET) in a game that the Seahawks will be watching closely.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Seahawks win yawner over Bears: Grades and notes for 'Thursday Night Football'
In the final Thursday night game of the season, the Seahawks won what might have been the ugliest game of the season with a 6-3 win over the Bears. The win kept the Seahawks' playoff hopes alive and they'll now be rooting for the Rams to lose on Saturday night against the Cardinals. A win by Arizona would set up a Week 18 showdown between the Rams and Seahawks that would likely be for the division title (The Rams can clinch a strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 18, so there's a small chance they'd get in even if they lost to Seattle, but we don't need to cover that now, let's let the Seahawks enjoy their win).
Here are our grades from Seattle's win:
SEAHAWKS GRADE: C
The Seahawks needed a win in the worst kind of way and they were able to get in thanks to a defense that came through with its most impressive performance of the season. Leonard Williams led a pass rush that had Caleb Williams on the run all night. The Seahawks linebacker tallied two of Seattle's seven sacks in the game. The defense held the Bears to just 179 yards while only allowing one drive the entire game that got inside of the Seahawks' 40-yard line. The Seahawks offense didn't do much, but Geno Smith and Zach Charbonnet played well enough in the first half to set up two Jason Myers field goals, and in the end, that was all Seattle needed. This team will now sit and wait to see what happens with the Rams on Saturday night against the Cardinals, but the important part is that they're still alive for a possible playoff berth.
Seahawks notes
- Seahawks set franchise record. With just six points, this was Seattle's lowest point total in a win in franchise history. The previous record was nine points, which Seattle has pulled off twice with the most recent one coming in a 9-6 win over the Lions back in 2006.
- Geno Smith finally picks up a Thursday win. The Seahawks win over the Bears marked the first victory that Geno Smith has ever had as a starter in a Thursday game. Going into Week 17, Geno Smith was 0-6 in Thursday games, which was tied with Daniel Jones for the worst Thursday night record in NFL history.
- Road warriors. The Seahawks are now 6-1 on the road this year, but just 3-6 at home. With the win, they clinched a winning season, which makes them the first team in NFL history to lose six games at home, but still finish with a winning record.
BEARS GRADE: C-
The Bears offense has been getting close to rock bottom for nine straight weeks and they finally hit it on Thursday night. On the Bears' first nine offensive possessions, they only had one drive that went for more than 16 yards. Caleb Williams didn't have much time to throw -- he was sacked seven times -- but even when he did, he struggled to connect with his receivers in a game where he completed just 16 of 28 passes for 122 yards. The Bears offense also looked lost at the end of the game while driving for a potential game-winning field goal, but that's hard to blame on Williams. Questionable coaching seemed to be the issue there. The Bears defense played a nearly perfect game, but the effort went to waste because the offense couldn't move the ball. The Bears have now lost 10 games in a row and the only good news for this team is that the season will be over next week.
Bears notes
- Sack attack. Caleb Williams was sacked seven times against the Seahawks, which means he's now taken 67 sacks for the season. That's the fourth-most that any QB has ever been sacked in a single season. If he gets sacked five times in Week 18, he'll tie Randall Cunningham for the second-most sacks taken in NFL history. David Carr holds the single-season record for most sacks taken with 76 in 2002, but it seems unlikely that Williams will top that number unless he gets crushed next week against the Packers.
- Interception streak finally ends. Caleb Williams went 353 passes without throwing an interception this season, which was the longest streak by a rookie in NFL history and the sixth-longest streak by any NFL quarterback ever. Unfortunately for Williams, his streak ended on his final throw of the game when he threw up a pass on fourth-and-10 that was picked off by Riq Woolen.
- Bears reach new low. The Bears' loss to the Seahawks was their 10th straight loss, which ties the franchise record for longest losing streak (They also lost 10 in a row in 2022). They could reach a new low if they lose in Week 18 and that will be completely possible since they'll be facing the Packers.
Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here.
2. Hanging on by a thread: How Dolphins, Colts and Bengals can still make the playoffs
The Bengals are currently on a three-game winning streak and during the streak, there's been a lot of talk about how they would be a dangerous team if they're able to make the playoffs. So can they actually get in? That's a great question. Glad you asked. Let's figure that out.
There are currently three teams in the AFC that will need a lot to happen over the final two weeks to earn playoff berth, so we thought we'd take a look at what each team needs so you know what to watch for this weekend.
What Bengals need to get to the playoffs:
- Bengals win out (vs. Broncos, at Steelers)
- Broncos lose out (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs)
- Colts lose at least one more game (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
- Dolphins lose at least one more game (at Browns, at Jets)
Verdict: If the Bengals can beat the Broncos on Saturday, they'll still be alive in the playoff race heading into Week 18, no matter what else happens around the NFL. That being said, the Bengals are in a tough spot here for two reasons: For one, the Chiefs will likely be benching their starters in Week 18, which will make it much easier for Denver to win. And two, the Colts have the easiest remaining strength of schedule.
What Colts need to get to the playoffs:
- Colts win out (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
- Dolphins win out (at Browns, at Jets)
- Broncos lose out (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs)
Verdict: If this happens, the Colts, Dolphins and Broncos will all finish at 9-8 and although the Colts lost to the Broncos, they'd still get in the playoffs thanks to the Dolphins. With Miami at 9-8, that would create a three-way tiebreaker and the Colts would win that (The Colts would also win a four-way tiebreaker if the Bengals were to also win out in this scenario). The Colts can also get in by winning out and having the Chargers lose out, but with L.A. playing New England and Las Vegas, the scenario above feels more realistic for Indy.
What Dolphins need to get to the playoffs:
- Dolphins win out (at Browns, at Jets)
- Broncos lose out (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs)
- Colts lose at least one more game (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
Verdict: In a head-to-head situation with the Broncos, the Dolphins would get in over Denver based on having a better conference record. The Dolphins also have two scenarios where they can get in if the Chargers lose out, but like we just said with the Colts, the Chargers losing out doesn't seem likely since they'll be facing the Patriots and Raiders.
If the Dolphins, Colts and Bengals ALL lose this weekend, then the AFC playoffs will be set with the Chargers and Broncos clinching the final two spots. The AFC playoffs will also be set if the Chargers and Broncos both win.
3. Eric Dickerson doesn't want Saquon Barkley to break his rushing record
Former NFL star Eric Dickerson has held the single-season rushing record for 30 years and it sounds like he'd prefer to keep the record for a few more years. Dickerson rushed for 2,105 yards in 1984, which still stands as the best rushing season in NFL history. However, Saquon Barkley is gunning for the record and he could get it with just 268 yards over the final two weeks of the season.
During a recent interview with the Los Angeles Times, Dickerson shared his thoughts on Barkley possible breaking the record.
- Dickerson doesn't want to see it broken. The NFL legend wasn't shy about the fact that he would prefer to see Barkley NOT break the record. "Do I want him to break it? Absolutely not," Dickerson said. "I don't pull no punches on that. But I'm not whining about it."
- Dickerson pointed out that Barkley is getting an extra game. "He had 17 games to do it? Hey, football is football. That's the way I look at it. If he's fortunate to get over 2,000 yards and get the record, it's a great record to have," Dickerson said. It should be pointed out that O.J. Simpson held the rushing record before Dickerson and he set the mark of 2,003 yards in just 14 games while Dickerson had 16.
- Speaking of Simpson. Dickerson said he was a big fan of O.J. the football player. "O.J. Simpson was my favorite player," Dickerson said. "He went over 2,000 yards in 14 games. It took me 15 games to get to 2,000. I had one extra game to play. Getting to 2,000 is an accomplishment in itself. I got close to that three other times."
You can read more about Dickerson's comments here.
If Barkley is going to set the record, he's going to have his work cut out for him. First, he'll have to face a resurgent Cowboys defense that has played well since Thanksgiving (The Cowboys have won four of five games in that span). After that, Barkely will get to face his old team, the Giants, and although he would likely LOVE to set the record against them, the reverse of that is that the the Giants will be going all out to make sure he DOESN'T get the record against them.
4. NFL Week 17 picks: Chargers and Commanders clinch playoff spots
It's officially time for your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you've forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Jason La Canfora, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. In Week 16, we had a nightmare week, going 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread. For the season, that means we're now 39-41 ATS and 43-32 straight up.
If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 17 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.
- Pete Prisco -- Bengals (-3) 31-27 over Broncos. From Prisco: "This is a like a playoff game for these two. Denver holds the final playoff spot now, but the Bengals are still alive. They have to get it here. Look for Joe Burrow and company to have a big day on offense, but the Broncos will get theirs as well. This should be fun, but the Bengals will win it late." For the rest of Prisco's Week 17 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan -- Chargers (-5) 27-21 over Patriots. From Sullivan: "The Patriots are surrendering 159.7 yards rushing per game on a 5.1 yards per carry clip over the last three weeks, which ranks in the bottom third in the league. While L.A. is not the most efficient ground-and-pound team, they aren't afraid to lean on it either. The Chargers are also 3-1 against the spread this season as a road favorite, which doesn't bode well for a Patriots club that is 2-3-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 17 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jason La Canfora -- Rams (-5.5) to cover against the Cardinals. From JLC: "The Bills have the second best overall cover margin in the NFL and have rolled up 30 points in eight straight games. New England's defense is falling apart, allowing 29.25 points per game over the last four. The Pats have lost by 21 (NYJ!), 20 (HOU), 16 (JAX!), 19 (MIA) and 13 (AZ). This margin of defeat is not new to them." You can check out the rest of La Canfora's best bets for Week 17 here.
- Jordan Dajani -- Commanders (-4) 28-22 over Falcons. From Dajani: "Michael Penix Jr. will be starting and I'll be honest, it's hard to back a first-year quarterback on the road, under the lights against a 10-win Commanders team in what will be his second career start. Give me Washington." For the rest of Dajani's Week 17 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech -- Vikings (+1) 30-27 over Packers. "This feels like a coin toss game, but no one uses coins anymore, so I have to trust my gut and my gut says the Vikings beat a Packers team that will be playing on the road while coming off a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 16." For the rest of my Week 17 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 17 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here.
5. NFL bold predictions for Week 17: Jets stun Bills, Cowboys stuff Barkley
After giving you some bold predictions for Week 16 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 17. And if last week is any indication, he might nail them all. In Week 16, Garrett correctly predicted that the Ravens would destroy the Steelers and beat them by at least TWO TOUCHDOWNS, and that's exactly what happened in Baltimore's 34-17 win.
Let's take a look at two of his bold predictions for Sunday:
- 1. Jets shock the Bills. "The Bills (12-3) played with fire in their 24-21 home win over the Patriots (3-12) in Week 16. ... If the Bills play anywhere close to that again, they will lose at home for the first time in eight outings this season against the Jets (4-11) on Sunday. They won't play as bad as they did in Week 16, but the Bills will lose to Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Sunday. Even though New York's offense has struggled this season, Rodgers remains a top-10 quarterback in touchdown-to-interception ratio (24-8, tied for ninth in the league). If Patriots rookie third overall pick quarterback Drake Maye can find holes against Buffalo's defense, the 20-year veteran quarterback certainly can too while throwing to Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams."
- 2. Cowboys hold Saquon Barkley under 100 yards. "The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the NFL's most ferocious defenses since their three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons returned from a high ankle sprain in Week 10. His impact -- he leads the NFL in sacks (8.5) and quarterback pressures (42) -- since Week 10 is undeniable. ... With Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts suffering a concussion in the team's Week 17 loss at the Commanders -- and unlikely to play this week -- the Cowboys will be able to load the box against Barkley."
Podell made a total of five bold predictions for Week 17, and you can check out all of them here.
6. Extra points: Jalen Hurts likely out on Sunday
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Eagles likely turning to Kenny Pickett. Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in Week 16 and that injury is likely going to keep him out for this week's game against the Cowboys. The Eagles just need to win one of their final two games to clinch the NFC East and they play the Giants in Week 18, so if Kenny Pickett can't lead them to a win on Sunday against Dallas, then Philly will just need to beat New York to win the division. You can read more about Hurts' injury here.
- CeeDee Lamb done for the year. The Cowboys are shutting down their star receiver for the season due to a shoulder injury. That means Lamb will miss the team's final two games, which will be coming against the Eagles (Week 17) and Commanders (Week 18).
- Pete Carroll interested in Bears' head coaching job. If the Bears are in the market to hire a Super Bowl-winning coach, then they might want to give Pete Carroll a call. According to ESPN, Carroll wants to return to the NFL next season and he's eyeing the Bears' job. You can get the full story on his interest here.
- Teddy Bridgewater is coming out of retirement. The Lions have added some QB insurance in the form of Teddy Bridgewater. The former first-round pick has decided to come out of retirement to sign with Detroit. Bridgewater spent the 2023 season in Detroit and had said he might return to the NFL after he finished coaching high school football for the season (Bridgewater won a state title in Florida as the head coach at Miami Northwestern). You can read more about Bridgewater's decision here.
- Netflix sets streaming record. The two Christmas games on Netflix set a streaming record for the NFL. The Ravens' win over the Texans averaged 24.3 million viewers while Kansas City's win over Pittsburgh averaged 24.1 million. Both of those topped the previous record of 23 million, which came last year during the Chiefs' playoff win over the Dolphins on Peacock. What this means is that we're probably going to get more games that are exclusive to streaming. We'll be getting one in the playoffs this year with Amazon getting its first-ever playoff game.
