Overreaction Tuesday after the first week of the season is always filled with scorching takes. Everyone is so excited to have NFL football back on their television screens that they're just letting the takes fly and putting them into the ether to see what happens. Most of the time, these are overreactions or overcorrections based on one week of evidence, and by Week 18 things get ironed out (remember: both New England and Seattle lost their week 1 games last season). 

Defense was optional to open the season last week; the Associated Press' Josh Dubow posted that the NFL average of 49.4 points scored is tied for the most in an opening week since 1962 (it was also 49.4 in 2012). Teams with Super Bowl aspirations, such as the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers, all looked rough on defense, prompting scorching hot takes across the internet. The real question is should you be worried about these defenses not rebounding, or is this a Week 1 blip?

Houston Texans

Result: Lost to Buffalo, 36-31

Verdict: Not worried

Let's get the ball rolling with the Texans, who had an uncharacteristically bad day at the office against the Bills. According to TruMedia, the Texans:

  • Posted a defensive EPA/play of -0.28 (worst since Demeco Ryans took over as head coach)
  • Gave up 7.9 yards per play (worst since Ryans took over as head coach)
  • 3.0 Points per Drive (5th-worst since Ryans took over as head coach)
  • 21.2% Explosive Play Rate (worst since Ryans took over as head coach)

Not great at all! Despite all of that, I'm more willing to believe this was a bad game for the Texans' defense and a Bills offense with Joe Brady now as head coach, looking to get revenge for their loss to the Texans in 2025 (one of QB Josh Allen's worst games as a pro). Despite the Texans neutralizing James Cook and the run game (the Texans' 68.4% Defensive Rushing Success Rate was the 6th-best mark of the week in the NFL), Buffalo hammered them with explosive passes at a rate unlike any Ryans defense has given up, to the tune of a 16.1% Explosive Pass Rate, third highest of the Ryans era. Buffalo did a very good job of mixing up the looks that star pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter got during the game, using chip protection, double teams and rollouts to give Allen enough time to get the ball downfield. On the touchdown that would win the game for Buffalo, WR DJ Moore is the one chipping on the right side:

This one has two chips, one from the tight end and another from the running back in the backfield. Allen has enough time and ends up throwing a howitzer:

I'm not worried about the Texans' defense moving forward because not every team has the personnel Buffalo has to do the same things they could. Chipping and rolling out to attack vertically is tough to do, and it's hard to design creatively to keep them on their toes. On top of that, not every team has a Josh Allen who will punish them vertically or provide the same threat as a scrambler. The Texans' defense should be fine.

Dallas Cowboys

Result: Lost to New York Giants, 28-20

Verdict: Not worried, but concerned

For a team that was heralded with high expectations going into the season, the Dallas Cowboys' defense went out on Sunday Night Football and looked like … the Cowboys from last year. In a 28-20 loss to the New York Giants, the Cowboys had the third-lowest Defensive Rushing Success Rate in the NFL for Week 1, missed 11 tackles and pressured Giants QB Jaxson Dart at a 29.4% clip, 24th in the NFL from Week 1. I know all of that sounds like a recipe for the worst defense in the NFL again, but I still think this defense can get out of the doldrums by the end of the season. 

First-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker is completely revamping this defense, from the front and coverage mechanics to the overall defensive design. In his first game, he quickly learned that it's hard to play a Fangio-style defense with light boxes and ask a lot of your linebackers with the linebacker group they have. For most of the Giants game, the linebacker group consisted of: Dee Winters (traded for a fifth-round pick), Jaishawn Barham (rookie) and DeMarvion Overshown. The Giants picked on their linebacker group all game, whether it be running at the undersized group with 300+ pound FB Patrick Ricard or pulling rookie RG Sisi Mauigoa, or forcing them to communicate in coverage and match routes, a staple of the Fangio defense. For most of the game, the Cowboys' linebacker group was either getting run over:

Or not matching routes out of the backfield quickly enough: 

This stuff happens when you're trying to run Fangio's defense without the dominant players at linebacker, especially if you're a rookie (see: Jihaad Campbell's snap count once Nakobe Dean came back last season). Part of this is on Parker and the defensive coaching, who was trying to figure out what would work against a team like New York that wants to live in heavy personnel without sacrificing in the run game. I'm still bullish on this defense and its playcaller, but I do think it'll take time to get better.

Los Angeles Chargers

Result: Lost to Arizona, 26-14

Verdict: Not worried, but concerned

In the second part of "first time defensive playcaller having a rough outing," we have Chris O'Leary and the Los Angeles Chargers, who were upset by the Cardinals on Sunday. The Cardinals had a 50% Success Rate, and Jacoby Brissett, without much threat of pressure, had a 59.1% Dropback Success Rate, which was fifth among all starting QBs in the NFL in Week 1. If you were asking me this question about the Chargers' offense, I would say we need to be panicking right now, but I think we can give O'Leary and the defense some time to put it together. 

An obvious question will be, "If O'Leary was hired to keep the defensive verbiage and structures the same, why is the result so different?" To that, I say O'Leary has only called plays once before in his career, and that was in 2025 at Western Michigan. Though the fear of this being a Mike Macdonald passing the torch to Zach Orr situation is in my mind, I think O'Leary deserves some time to figure out which mix will work for this team. I think Minter pushed a lot of buttons in the right ways during his time in Los Angeles and maximized a group that is closer to average in terms of talent. 

It'll have to start up front, where they need to get more from their defensive line in the pass rush department. When they didn't blitz on Sunday, they had the third-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Losing EDGE Odafe Oweh sapped some of the juice in that pass rush room, and the worry was that there's no real replacement for him there. O'Leary doesn't want to live in a world where they have to send 5+ guys to get pressure, so EDGEs Tuli Tuipiulotou, Khalil Mack and rookie Akheem Mesidor will have to provide some push to get the Chargers' defense to where they want to be.

Chicago Bears

Result: Defeated Carolina 59-37

Verdict: Worried

I knew the Bears' defense would come along a lot slower than their offense, but there is major cause for concern here. In the 12th-highest scoring game in NFL history, the Bears and Panthers' defenses both just existed for highlight plays. Here are a few of the reasons I'm worried about the Bears' defense:

  • Chicago's run game averaged 3.37 yards BEFORE contact on Sunday, 2nd in the NFL that week. First? The Carolina Panthers at 3.68
  • The Bears had a 60% Success Rate on offense, 3rd in the NFL for Week 1. The Panthers had a 53.2% Success Rate, which was 6th
  • The Bears' offense had eight plays of 20+ yards in Week 1, the most in the NFL. The Panthers? Tied for third with six plays of 20+ yards
  • Bears' QB Caleb Williams had a 0.48 EPA/dropback, fourth in the NFL. Bryce Young was sixth at 0.29

For as historically great as the Bears' offense was on Sunday, the Bears' defense was just as awful in many ways. Their inability to stop the run or limit explosive plays is a recipe for disaster for this group, especially when trying to play complementary football. DC Dennis Allen wants to play more aggressively and build through the speed they have in the secondary, but they just can't do that when they give us as many big plays as they do.

The Bears' offense can score 50 points a game at the drop of a hat, but this defense might force them to do so all season.

Detroit Lions

Result: Beat New Orleans 31-30

Verdict: Moderately worried

For two and a half quarters, the Lions played phenomenal football, going up 21-0 and forcing three turnovers. Then QB Tyler Shough came roaring back to send this game into overtime, and that's where some of the concerns come in. Let's start with the good, which begins with the run defense. Their average yards before contact of 1.40 was much better than their 2025 season average of 1.95, and they had a Defensive Rushing Success Rate of 69.6%, which not only would be the best mark of the Dan Campbell era for Detroit, but was fifth in the NFL in Week 1. The grouping of DT Tyliek Williams and Alim McNeill is a pain in the butt to move in the run game. Williams, especially, lived in the backfield and made plays. I also think defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard was more willing to live in zone coverage in week one, with a zone coverage rate of 72.1% that could help ease some of the stress on his depleted secondary.

The issues lie in giving up big plays against their cornerbacks, specifically CB Rock Ya-Sin. This was always going to be the major issue for the Lions in 2026, but in the second half and overtime, Ya-Sin was targeted relentlessly (eight of his 11 targets came in the second half and overtime). On his eight targets in the second half/OT, four of them went for first downs; he gave up a touchdown and a penalty. The Lions tried mixing up man and zone, but Ya-Sin was always being found in coverage. It's hard hiding a cornerback when teams want to go at him, and the Saints found Ya-Sin late in the game and hammered that button.

There is a way they can mitigate this, but it also hinges on the return of star safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. By having these two on the back end, you can play more efficient shell coverages and allow Ya-Sin to be a cloud defender, where he's at his best underneath and making plays as a tackler. The Lions should get Branch and Joseph back by week four, so the hope is that Sheppard can unlock more of his playbook with both guys in the lineup.

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