NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyes Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 28, 2024 at 3:12 pm ET • 3 min read

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The biggest favorite of every week of the 2024 NFL season has lost, which has the 49ers on upset alert against New England. The Niners are 10.5-point home favorites in the Week 4 NFL odds. Not only does this make San Francisco the biggest favorite, according to the Week 4 NFL spreads, but it also makes it the heaviest favorite of the entire season. The Patriots are 12-5-1 against the spread in their last 18 as double-digit underdogs, while 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 1-6 against the number in his last seven home games.

Can you back the Patriots with your Week 4 NFL picks to win? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+3, 41) cover the spread versus the Falcons. No team has a worse against the spread record than the Falcons since the start of last year, as they've gone just 6-14. Meanwhile, the Saints will thoroughly embrace the role as road underdogs in this matchup since they are 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread in their last six games as a road dog.

Using playaction has taken New Orleans' offense to another level under first year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The team ranked last in play-action usage last year, but is third this year, which has resulted in the Saints ranking in the top two of the NFL in points, yards per pass attempt, third down offense, and the percentage of drives ending in a score. Atlanta is just 26th in scoring and only four teams have a worse turnover differential. With that, the Saints are projected to stay within the spread, covering in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-2, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. Pittsburgh's run defense slowed down Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins last week, holding him to just 44 yards on 15 attempts. They will now face Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who leads a rushing attack that is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt has 5.5 sacks, four tackles for loss, 15 tackles and two forced fumbles in five career games against the Colts. He had two sacks and two tackles for loss in the most recent meeting (Week 15 of last season) and is on pace to become the second-fastest player to reach 100 career sacks behind Reggie White. SportsLine's model expects Watt to be disruptive again on Sunday, one reason why the Steelers are covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.