Ladies and gentlemen, we are back. After months of pretending we like other sports as much as football, the 2024 NFL season is here, and it's time to make some money.
Week 1 is one of my favorite betting weeks of the entire year, because our preconceived notions directly face off with Vegas' expectations. For example, is it possible Caleb Williams' NFL career gets off to a slow start? Will the Dallas Cowboys take a major step backwards? Could the Miami Dolphins be legitimate Super Bowl contenders? Let's get ready to overreact.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Top five picks ATS record: 0-0-0
Overall ATS record: 0-0-0
Straight up record: 0-0
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Chiefs started last season a bit slow, losing to the Detroit Lions in the NFL season opener and then scoring just 17 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2. Could we see another slow start from the reigning Super Bowl champs? This is a rematch of the AFC Championship game, where the Ravens disappointed in front of their home fans. I don't care what Lamar Jackson says, this is a revenge game, and the Ravens are absolutely motivated to start the 2024 season by righting the wrongs of 2023.
I understand there are some concerns with Baltimore's offensive front, especially when you consider the fact that Steve Spagnuolo likes to bring pressure. But Jackson is the best quarterback of all-time as an underdog. He's 13-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career, which is the best cover percentage by any quarterback since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Additionally, John Harbaugh is one of the best Week 1 coaches ever. He has the second-best Week 1 point differential (+222) by a head coach in NFL history behind the great Tom Landry.
The pick: Ravens +3
Projected score: Ravens 24-23
What does the SportsLine Projection Model -- up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception -- think of this opener? Check out that prediction, as well as picks for all of the Week 1 games, right here.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Caleb Williams is supposed to be this generational quarterback, but did you know the last 15 quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall are 0-14-1 in their first career starts? And the Bears are favored by four points?! That's the largest Week 1 spread for a rookie quarterback in his first start since Terry Bradshaw back in 1970.
I don't believe the Titans are some kind of Super Bowl contender, but there's reason for optimism with all the moves they made this offseason. Such as the hiring of head coach Brian Callahan, and adding L'Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, Ernest Jones, T'Vondre Sweat, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd, JC Latham and Lloyd Cushenberry. It's quite a list.
Here's why I'm going to take the points with Tennessee: I think the Titans defense is going to be tough for some quarterbacks to handle. New defensive coordinator and defensive back specialist Dennard Wilson is going to bring the pressure from all angles. It's not the most ideal first matchup for a rookie quarterback.
The pick: Titans +4
Projected score: Bears 23-20
Houston Texans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
A rematch of that thrilling "win-and-in" regular-season finale that ultimately landed the Texans the AFC South title. There are good vibes in Houston following its tremendous offseason. In fact, the Texans actually became the first team in NFL history to add a player coming off a season with 100+ receptions (Stefon Diggs), a player coming off 1,000+ rushing yards (Joe Mixon) and two players coming off 10 plus sack seasons (Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry) in the same offseason.
We all know the Texans can be contenders with C.J. Stroud and his new trio of wide receivers, but the upgrades on defense are what have me believing the hype. We already mentioned a couple, but a healthy Jimmie Ward and rookie cornerback Kamari Lassiter could be difference-makers, while Derek Stingley Jr. has his breakout season.
As for the Colts, Jonathan Taylor usually feasts against Houston. His 135.2 rushing yards per game vs. the Texans are the most by any player vs. a single opponent in NFL history (min. five games), but can Anthony Richardson stay healthy and perform well? Last time he suited up against the Texans, Richardson suffered a concussion that knocked him out of the game in the first half. Gardner Minshew came in and won the game for Indy, but again, this Texans team appears to be improved.
The pick: Texans -3
Projected score: Texans 30-26
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The only thing you need to know about this game is that it will be called by the crew of Kevin Harlan, Trent Green and Melanie Collins. Since 2022, the Dolphins are 7-0 and have averaged 38 points per game when those three are on the call. So, there you go.
In all seriousness, the Dolphins have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and the defense is now headed by Anthony Weaver, who comes over from Baltimore. The Dolphins are 10-1 straight up, and 9-2 against the spread as a favorite when Tua Tagovailoa starts, so give me Miami in Week 1.
The pick: Dolphins -3.5
Projected score: Dolphins 30-24
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Here's a Week 1 matchup between last year's leader in scoring offense, and last year's leader in total defense. Something's gotta give.
I'm low on the Cowboys this season, and I think their running back room could be very underwhelming. It's not great for the Cowboys that they have to take on what may be the toughest defense in the league on the road while star wideout CeeDee Lamb spent a good chunk of time away from the team. Then there are the new starters on the offensive line that have to somehow contain Myles Garrett. The Browns went 8-1 at home last year, and allowed just 13.9 points per game. That, of course, ranked No. 1 in the NFL.
I can't tell you if Deshaun Watson is finally going to show up this year. But I still like the Browns Week 1.
The pick: Browns -2.5
Projected score: Browns 21-17
Other Week 1 picks
Packers (+2.5) 28-24 over Eagles
Falcons (-3.5) 23-17 over Steelers
Bills 21-20 over Cardinals (+6.5)
Bengals (-8) 25-14 over Patriots
Saints (-4) 23-16 over Panthers
Vikings (-1.5) 13-10 over Giants
Chargers (-3) 20-16 over Raiders
Seahawks (-6) 27-20 over Broncos
Buccaneers (-3.5) 28-21 over Commanders
Lions 31-30 over Rams (+3.5)
Jets (+4.5) 23-20 over 49ers