We were on the right side of two of the more notable upsets of Week 10. I correctly pinpointed the Steelers to upset the Commanders, and we saw the new-look Saints cover (and outright beat) the Atlanta Falcons. Those ATS wins and the Chargers covering against Tennessee helped us go 3-2 ATS in my five locks of the week. We were just off on the Ravens and Lions failing to cover their matchups, but we'll use the momentum from the trio of wins from the weekend as we now turn our attention to Week 11.
Overall, this looks like a fantastic week of football. We have several key divisional matchups and, of course, the heavyweight bout between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, which I have targeted as one of my five locks of the week. It should be another fun week of sports betting across the NFL, so let's get right to the picks!
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 22-23
ATS: 67-82-3
ML: 95-57
All betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get in the game.
Ravens at Steelers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Both of these teams had their games go down to the wire last week, and I expect that to be the case here, which is why we'll take the field goal with Pittsburgh and even predict the upset. The strength of the Ravens this season has been their ability to run the football with their two-headed monster attack with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Entering Week 11, the Steelers are holding opponents to a 3.8 yards-per-rush average, which is tied for the third-best in the NFL. So, even if they mildly slow down Henry, it'll go a long way in keeping them within the number. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin's team has done a solid job against Jackson in his career. As a starter, the two-time NFL MVP is 1-3 against the Steelers with four passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Since becoming the starter, Russell Wilson has been able to unlock Pittsburgh's downfield passing attack, which should come in handy against a Baltimore secondary that has been torched this season, surrendering a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game.
Projected score: Steelers 27, Ravens 23
The pick: Steelers +3
Bengals at Chargers
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Bengals have played some of the top teams in the conference tough (Ex. Kansas City in Week 2 and Baltimore twice), but they've come out on the losing end each time. In a year where there are a lot of seven-win or two-win teams, Cincinnati is the rare middling club that I believe just beats up on bad competition but can't get over the hump against playoff opponents. Meanwhile, I think the Chargers are legit. Jim Harbaugh has this team playing at a high level, and Justin Herbert is sneakily on fire, so I love them in this prime-time matchup at home.
Defensively, L.A. is holding opponents to 5.1 yards per play (tied for fifth-fewest in the NFL) and 5.9 yards per pass attempt (fourth fewest). The Chargers should be able to slow the high-powered Cincy offense, while I don't believe that'll be the case on the other side. The Bengals defense has struggled to get off the field this season, allowing opponents to covert on 45.8% of their third-down attempts (fourth-worst). They are also horrendous in the red zone, with opponents scoring touchdowns on 71.8% of trips. This is another favorable spot for Herbert and Co.
Projected score: Chargers 30, Bengals 23
The pick: Chargers -1.5
Texans at Cowboys
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
This is admittedly chalky, but I just can't see Cooper Rush/Trey Lance taking down the Texans or keeping within a reasonable figure. That's especially true with Houston star wideout Nico Collins looking like he'll make his long-awaited return to the offense. Last week, the Cowboys offense mustered just six points and averaged 2.6 yards per play. If that continues -- and there's no reason to expect it won't -- this could get ugly at AT&T Stadium. It's also worth pointing out that the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS at home this season.
Projected score: Texans 27, Cowboys 17
The pick: Texans -7.5
Packers at Bears
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Chicago Bears are broken. It feels like ever since they let up that game-winning Hail Mary to the Commanders a few weeks back, they've been wandering toward an abyss. They've already moved on from offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, and it feels like the hour is soon to strike midnight on coach Matt Eberflus as well. I have a hard time imagining this team getting up for this divisional game, and I could even see them pack it in if Green Bay lands a knockout blow by gaining an early lead. The Packers are also fresh coming off their bye week and have the pieces of an elite team in the NFC. The defense has a knack for creating takeaways and is stout on third down (33.01% conversion rate), creating a recipe for another sluggish offensive performance from the Chicago offense.
Projected score: Packers 30, Bears 20
The pick: Packers -6
Chiefs at Bills
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This might be an AFC Championship preview as the Chiefs head into Highmark Stadium to face the Bills. While Buffalo certainly has merit to be favored in this game, I'm simply not betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. In his career, the Chiefs quarterback is 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog. That's the best of any signal-caller since 1970. As we saw last week, even when Kansas City doesn't play to its peak ability, they find ways to win. While the Chiefs offense has been under some scrutiny this year, one area where they've thrived is on third down. Mahomes is averaging 8 yards per attempt on the key down while throwing six touchdowns and just one interception. His nine scrambles for a first down also lead the league. Meanwhile, Buffalo ranks in the bottom half of the league on third down, seeing opponents covert 40% of the time (21st). That ability to extend drives and keep Josh Allen off the field could prove to be the difference.
THE NFL TODAY will be live from Buffalo on Sunday. Fans can join the crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at noon ET on Nov. 17.
Projected score: Chiefs 28, Bills 24
The pick: Chiefs +2.5
Rest of the bunch
Commanders at Eagles (Thursday)
Projected score: Commanders 27, Eagles 23
The pick: Commanders +3.5
Browns at Saints
Projected score: Saints 24, Browns 20
The pick: Saints -1
Colts at Jets
Projected score: Jets 23, Colts 21
The pick: Colts +3.5
Jaguars at Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Jaguars 16
The pick: Lions -13
Rams at Patriots
Projected score: Rams 23, Patriots 20
The pick: Patriots +4.5
Raiders at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 27, Raiders 17
The pick: Dolphins -7
Vikings at Titans
Projected score: Vikings 24, Titans 20
The pick: Titans +6
Falcons at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 23, Falcons 20
The pick: Broncos -2
Seahawks at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 30, Seahawks 20
The pick: 49ers -6.5
