The NFL coaching carousel is set to be in full swing with the end of the regular season this weekend. This year's version of "Black Monday" could see the most head coaching openings in years, with three head coaching vacancies already occurring.
The New York Jets fired Robert Saleh in October, the New Orleans Saints let go of Dennis Allen in November, while the Chicago Bears parted ways with Matt Eberflus after Thanksgiving. Those three organizations got a head start on searching for their next head coach, but plenty of other teams could be joining them at the conclusion of this weekend.
These are the coaches that are currently on the hot seat heading into Week 18. Which ones will be fired and which ones will be retained for another season?
Mike McCarthy (Dallas Cowboys)
- Record with Cowboys: 49-34 (.590 win percentage)
- Prediction: Contract not renewed
This feels like a situation if Dallas really wanted to renew McCarthy's contract, they would have renewed it by now. McCarthy's contract expires on January 14, before he's allowed to pursue any job he wants (and may be in the process of doing that once Week 18 ends).
McCarthy has just two losing seasons in five years coaching the Cowboys, but only a 1-3 playoff record to show for it. His time may be ending with the Cowboys, yet McCarthy would be an ideal candidate for a third job if a team wanted to hire him (career .610 win percentage, 174-111-2 record with a Super Bowl title).
Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts)
- Record with Colts: 16-17 (.485 win percentage)
- Prediction: Retained
The Colts are an absolute mess right now, and this goes above Steichen. From how the coaching staff and front office handled the benching of Anthony Richardson to how Steichen handles certain situations internally, the franchise just seems to have no sense of direction.
Steichen probably gets another season, but general manager Chris Ballard and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley may not be back. This season may be a lame duck year for Steichen unless the Colts transcend into a playoff team.
Antonio Pierce (Las Vegas Raiders)
- Record with Raiders: 9-16 (.360 win percentage)
- Prediction: Fired
Pierce may be a one-and-done head coach, but he wasn't exactly given the best hand to deal with. The Raiders traded Davante Adams by the trade deadline and Pierce went into the season with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell as his quarterbacks. There wasn't exactly a way to succeed with what the Raiders had on their roster.
With Tom Brady now in the ownership group, there is expected to be some changes in Las Vegas. This team needs a quarterback, but they also will look to hit the next stage of their rebuild with a more established head coach. This was essentially a "gap year" for the Raiders.
Jerod Mayo (New England Patriots)
- Record with Patriots: 3-13 (.188 win percentage)
- Prediction: Fired
Mayo may have been the successor to Bill Belichick, but the Patriots wasn't supposed to be worse than they were last season. New England seems to have a good quarterback in Drake Maye, yet there isn't much else on the offensive side of the ball and that goes to Mayo and his coaching hires). No player on the Patriots seemed to have developed either, and the downfall of the defense is also pinned to Mayo -- a defensive coach.
The Patriots have an opportunity to hit the reset button in the early stages of their rebuild. They have an chance to get a more proven head coach, learning from the Mayo experiment. Time to move on from the Bill Belichick era once and for all.
Doug Pederson (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Record with Jaguars: 22-28 (.440 win percentage)
- Prediction: Fired
This move felt like it could happen at any point during the Jaguars disastrous season, but appears Monday will be the day Jacksonville finally moves on from Pederson. Last season's collapse combined with a 4-12 record this season just isn't enough to justify keeping Pederson, even though he has a Super Bowl on his resume.
Pederson is 5-17 in his last 22 games. He may be the first firing announcement on Monday.
Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns)
- Record with Browns: 40-43 (.482 win percentage)
- Prediction: Fired
This isn't the fault of Stefanski at all, as the Browns have been a colossal mess since giving Deshaun Watson $230 million guaranteed three years ago. Stefanski still took the Browns to the playoffs despite starting four different quarterbacks last season, and the team was better without Watson on the field.
Taking the Browns to the playoffs on two different occasions -- and winning a playoff game -- isn't easy. What Stefanski has done in Cleveland is impressive, but his tenure with the Browns seems to have run its course. Stefanski could be hired within days.
Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals)
- Record with Bengals: 45-52-1 (.464 win percentage)
- Prediction: To be determined
The Bengals are still in the playoff race, so it's unsure what direction the franchise will go with Taylor. The slow starts every seaosn are enough to justify Taylor being let go, especially with all the talent Cincinnati has at its disposal. A loss by the Bengals or a win by the Broncos or Dolphins eliminates Cincinnati.
If Taylor is fired, the Bengals would be the top job on the market with Joe Burrow at quarterback. The front office needs to improve on retaining their players, but there's a huge opportunity to win a championship with Burrow around.
Brian Daboll (New York Giants)
- Record with Giants: 18-31-1 (.370 win percentage)
- Prediction: Fired
Since the Giants surprising playoff appearance in Daboll's first season, the organization continues to be a disaster. The Giants have been one of the worst teams in football (if not the worst), going 9-24 in the two seasons since. They gave Daniel Jones $160 million and decided to part ways with Saquon Barkley -- only to see him rush for 2,000 yards in his first season with the Eagles.
The front office is a mess with Joe Schoen, who also is likely to be let go -- along with Daboll. The Giants are set to hit the reset button once again.
Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers)
- Record with 49ers: 70-61 (.534 win percentage)
- Prediction: Retained
Shanahan being on the hot seat is a little ridiculous, but his tenure with the 49ers may have run its course. The 49ers have made two Super Bowls and reached the NFC Championship game four times under Shanahan -- who has an 8-4 playoff record. There's been a lot of winning in San Francisco since he's arrived.
How the 49ers handle seasons after Super Bowl losses could be pinned on Shanahan, who at times looked as if he wanted a new challenge. There will be changes in San Francisco, but with the roster as a Brock Purdy extension nears.
If Shanahan leaves, it's because he wants to.
