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The NFL script writers have cooked up one of their best seasons ever in 2025. Every division race is tight as we enter the final month of the season. The traditional superpowers have left the door open for new contenders as the Chiefs and Eagles look cooked. Some of the league's top quarterbacks are currently on the outside looking in, and now 44-year-old Philip Rivers has pounded his fist on the table and says he wants a piece. 

In many ways, this is the most wide-open Super Bowl race ever.

  • There are 10 teams with at least nine wins, tied for the most entering Week 15 in the last 40 years.
  • Last season's Super Bowl teams (Chiefs and Eagles) are 3-7 since the start of November.
  • The current top three seeds in the AFC (Broncos, Patriots and Jaguars) were 18-33 last season, and none of the current AFC division leaders won their division last season.
  • This could be the first postseason without Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes since 2008.

Looking at the 23 teams still in Super Bowl contention, you could make a legitimate Super Bowl case for 10 to 15 of them. At this point, it just feels like March Madness. If you can get into the dance, anything can happen. 

On the one hand, I'm looking forward to an unpredictable ending. That's especially true in the AFC, where one of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco or Ben Roethlisberger have represented the conference in the last 22 Super Bowls. There might be room for a new name -- finally. 

On the other hand, I work in numbers. They may not always hold true, but they usually provide a pretty good indication of where we're heading. In this case, I used six trends that are good indicators of championship-caliber teams to narrow the field of 23 to just two for Super Bowl LX. 

23 teams in Super Bowl contention

Let's get familiar with the field. Feast your eyes on this beauty pageant of 23 teams still alive for the Lombardi Trophy. No surprise, the Jets and Browns are nowhere to be found. I am pretty surprised the Commanders aren't on this list after making the NFC title game last season, though. Plus, I didn't think the Raiders would already be out after a busy offseason bringing in Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty.

The Patriots are still here. Not bad after losing 13 games last year. Anyway, let's hop to it. We're going trend-by-trend to eliminate teams until we get down to two in a game of Super Bowl survivor. 

AFC contenders

NFC contenders

Weeding out the bad teams

Only one team has ever won a Super Bowl with a negative point differential in the regular season: the 2011 Giants. That history eliminates nine teams.

Dolphins, Steelers, Vikings, Bengals, Buccaneers and Panthers:

This is a no-brainer. There are teams on this list that just don't belong, so we need to weed them out. I don't think anybody is going to miss them.

Ravens: Baltimore might have beef for getting booted off the island, but it just lost to a slumping Steelers team. Controversy or not, it was a costly loss. 

Cowboys: Dallas has come on lately, but it just reminded us that Quinnen Williams can't save a defense that gives the offense little margin for error.

Bears: Chicago has a chance to be this year's Cinderella, and it has only been outscored by one point. The Bears just pushed the Packers at Lambeau and Ben Johnson brings juice -- shirtless celebrations and all.

But the résumé still doesn't hold up. This defense isn't good enough to win a title. They've played the easiest schedule in the NFC, tied an NFL record with five wins when trailing in the final two minutes, and lead the league in takeaways.

That's a lot of regression signs. It's hard to trust a 9–4 team that's been outscored on the year. Goodbye, Chicago!

Remaining AFC contenders

  • Patriots
  • Bills
  • Jaguars
  • Texans
  • Colts
  • Broncos
  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

Remaining NFC contenders 

  • Eagles
  • Packers
  • Lions
  • Rams
  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

Must be elite on one side of the ball

The last 12 -- and 56 of the last 59 -- Super Bowl champions finished top seven in scoring offense or scoring defense (or both).

To win a Super Bowl, you have to be elite on at least one side of the ball. You can survive a dreadful offense (2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2015 Broncos) if your defense is historic. You can survive a soft defense (2006 Colts, 2009 Saints) if your offense is electric. What you really can't do is win it all when you're merely average to above average on both sides -- not unless you catch lightning in a bottle like the 2011 Giants or 2012 Ravens.

So we say goodbye to four more teams.

Chargers: Los Angeles faces an uphill climb without either of its starting offensive tackles.

Eagles: Nobody outside of Philadelphia is going to miss this team. The offense has been miserable, capped by Monday's five-turnover disaster from Jalen Hurts. The defense just got shredded by the Bears on Black Friday. 

49ers: San Francisco has navigated a soft schedule to get to 9–4, but its offense lacks explosiveness and the defense hasn't been the same without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.

Jaguars: You could make a case for Jacksonville. The Jaguars have won four straight, and their only post-deadline loss was blowing a 19-point fourth-quarter lead to Houston. Their defense ranks fourth in EPA per game since the deadline and the passing game is showing signs of life. 

But do we really trust Trevor Lawrence or Liam Coen right now? A rookie head coach hasn't won a Super Bowl since George Seifert in 1989 -- and he inherited Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and the West Coast offense. It's safe to let Jacksonville go.

Remaining AFC contenders

  • Patriots
  • Bills
  • Texans
  • Colts
  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

Remaining NFC contenders 

  • Packers
  • Lions
  • Rams
  • Seahawks

Must make critical stops

None of the last 18 Super Bowl champions were bottom 10 in third-down conversion rate allowed.

To win a Super Bowl, a defense has to make critical stops to get off the field. That tracks. But this is where things start to get a little testy. 

Here are the three teams eliminated:

Bills: Do the Bills really have to go here? You could pick from a handful of potentially fatal flaws. They still don't have a true go-to target for Josh Allen. They can't stop the run (27th in success rate) and their pass rush doesn't scare anyone (except maybe Aaron Rodgers). Buffalo sits right on the edge of this category as the 10th-worst third-down defense, but you can easily see how that side of the ball could again be its undoing.

Then again, if they finally don't have to go through Patrick Mahomes in the AFC playoffs… maybe this is the team of destiny. We'll see.

Chiefs: Kansas City could still run the table and get some help from the Chargers to sneak in. But one thing that could derail both its postseason chances and its bid for a fourth straight Super Bowl appearance is surprisingly simple: the blitz has gone flat.

As ESPN's Mina Kimes pointed out on X, Kansas City ranks 29th in yards per play allowed and 31st in sack rate when blitzing this year -- after finishing top five in both metrics from 2022–24. If Steve Spagnuolo's pressure packages aren't landing, the Chiefs aren't getting off the field on third down. Combine that with an aging roster, no explosiveness in the run game and Mahomes missing the deep ball, and the blitz becomes one more serving of humble pie.

Colts: We could list a dozen reasons the Colts won't be in Super Bowl LX. Let's leave the defense alone and just enjoy the Philip Rivers subplot for a moment. For what it's worth, the last team to win a Super Bowl with a bottom-10 third-down defense was the 2006 Colts -- and Rex Grossman wasn't able to make them pay for it in the big game.

Remaining AFC contenders

  • Patriots
  • Texans
  • Broncos

Remaining NFC contenders 

  • Packers
  • Lions
  • Rams
  • Seahawks

Win close games

The last 14 -- and 23 of the last 25 -- Super Bowl champions were .500 or better in one-score games during the regular season.

Now we're down to the wire. The margin for error is razor thin, so we're trimming the contenders that have been inconsistent in close games. 

Here are the two teams eliminated:

Lions: I don't feel too bad about getting rid of the Lions here. They are 3-4 in one-score games, so they're right on the edge, but who really trusts them? I don't trust Jared Goff, that defense or Dan Campbell's wild fourth-down gambles to win four games for Detroit in the postseason -- potentially four road games.

The Lions haven't converted a fourth down in over a month, and without those momentum swings they've dropped close games to the Eagles and Packers. Chances are they will live … and die … with fourth-down gambles in the playoffs.

Texans: With this defense, almost every game will be a one-score game for the Texans. They are 4–5 in one-score games this year, but have won four straight, and that doesn't include Sunday night's win in Kansas City when they were tied in the fourth quarter before closing on a 10–0 run. The defense is electric, as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes can attest to.

Nobody should be surprised if their offense (and offensive line) lets them down in a close playoff game -- if they even make it.

Remaining AFC contenders

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

Remaining NFC contenders 

  • Packers
  • Rams
  • Seahawks

Clutch kicks

Only one of the last 25 Super Bowl champions ranked in the bottom five in field goal percentage (the 2022 Chiefs).

Then there were five. Sometimes the last game of the season comes down to one kick -- just ask Adam Vinatieri or Scott Norwood. Harrison Butker drilled a 57-yarder in Super Bowl LVIII in a game the Chiefs eventually won in overtime against the 49ers.

Since 2000, there have been 100 potential game-tying or go-ahead field goal attempts in the fourth quarter or overtime of playoff games. That's roughly four critical kicks per year. If it comes off the wrong leg, you might be staring at a double doink and a quick exit. 

Here are the two teams eliminated: 

Packers: Green Bay fans have every right to be uneasy about Brandon McManus. He missed a 40-plus-yard attempt in a three-point home loss to the Panthers last month, and followed that with a 64-yarder to tie the Eagles that wasn't even in the right area code. He's 15 of 21 on field goals this season.

Rams: Los Angeles' only real weakness right now is its kicking game. The team is 13 of 18 on field goals this year and had a disastrous finish in Philadelphia earlier this season, when Joshua Karty had two field goals blocked in the fourth quarter -- including one for the win. 

Harrison Mevis is kicking now, but the Rams have attempted just four field goals over their last seven games, and none in pressure situations. If anything is going to take down the Super Bowl favorites, it's probably the kicking game. And if any team understands how important postseason kicking is, it's them.

Remaining AFC contenders

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

Remaining NFC contenders 

  • Seahawks

Trenches

Twenty-one of the last 23 Super Bowl champions had a positive sack differential.

The final category to eliminate a Super Bowl contender is, surprisingly, not quarterback play. It's the guys who get overlooked the most -- the dudes in the trenches. We saw how critical they were in last year's Super Bowl, when the Eagles' front four destroyed the Chiefs.

Patriots: That's why I'm eliminating the Patriots. They're bottom 10 in sack rate and pressure rate allowed this year, and they've already given up 40 sacks. Drake Maye has been terrific against pressure and outside the pocket, but don't be shocked if this becomes New England's undoing, especially if it runs into the Broncos' or Texans' pass rush in January.

If you need more convincing, here's one more historical nugget: the 1999 Rams are the only team ever to win a Super Bowl after a season with four or fewer wins. The Patriots' turnaround has been miraculous too, so maybe they could become the second team to pull this off.

Super Bowl LX matchup: Broncos vs Seahawks

And then there were two. The Broncos and Seahawks win this survivor pool, and if the trends hold, maybe we'll see a Super Bowl rematch in Super Bowl LX thanks to two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos lead the league in sacks, and the Seahawks lead the league in pressures.

Both teams have big question marks at quarterback, but it isn't impossible for either signal-caller to do enough to make a run. Bo Nix has been clutch in the fourth quarter, fueling a string of Broncos comebacks, and the Seahawks still have one of the most explosive passing games in the league with Sam Darnold. I'd be the first to admit I don't fully trust either, but I can absolutely be convinced of a path where these two teams end up meeting at Levi's Stadium on Feb. 8.

So as you're scratching your head on Sundays wondering who's going to be left standing when it's all said and done, remember what the numbers say: Denver or Seattle.