Nonconference play has always been an uphill climb for teams outside the power conferences. There are a lot of money games involved against the power-conference teams, and they aren't paying money to lose (although that happens sometimes).
This season, Group of Five teams, plus UConn and UMass, are a combined 8-74 against teams in the power conferences and Notre Dame. The most noteworthy of those was Northern Illinois' stunning upset of the Fighting Irish. The American Athletic Conference only has one such win, which was Memphis' victory at Florida State. Conference USA has been shut out in nine tries.
The gap between the major conferences and the rest may get worse instead of better as the power leagues work to separate themselves even further from the rest of college football.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Since many teams are still a "CFP candidate," I'll go with the current top 12 teams in the AP Top 25. With the expanded playoff this season, I'll go deeper into the rankings once we get a few games under our belts.
Games against FCS opponents are not considered.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Week 6 picks
Auburn at No. 5 Georgia (-24.5): This may not be the best time to play Georgia. The Bulldogs are coming off a couple of subpar performances -- or, at least until they were down 28-0 to Alabama -- and a loss. The Tigers have not been good at much this season except finding ways to lose. They will not have to look too hard this week as they hit the road for the first time this season. Pick: Georgia -24.5
No. 15 Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State: This game looked like must-see TV when the schedule came out before the season. Now, the Seminoles are 1-4 and coming off their worst loss of the season (42-16 at SMU). Clemson has been laying waste to its opponents since the blowout loss to Georgia to start the season. Expect the Tigers to show no mercy to their conference rival. Pick: Clemson -14.5
No. 23 Indiana (-13.5) at Northwestern: Indiana is on a roll under new coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers are piling up almost 42 PPG against FBS competition, powering them to a 5-0 start. Northwestern is temporarily playing its home games at a beautiful lakefront stadium, but the offense has been anything but beautiful. The Wildcats have yet to score more than 13 points in regulation against an FBS opponent. The Hooisers should win going away. Pick Indiana -13.5
Upset of the Week
SMU at No. 22 Louisville (-7): This is a battle between a couple of evenly matched teams with high-powered offenses. SMU's only loss is to undefeated BYU, which is the only team to shut down the Mustangs' offense so far this season. The Cardinals are coming off their first loss of the season at Notre Dame. I'm going with SMU in a shootout, and I like the over (56.5) as well. Pick: SMU +7
Other CFP candidates
- No. 1 Alabama at Vanderbilt (O/U 55.5) Pick: Over 55.5
- Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State (-19.5) Pick: Ohio State -19.5
- No. 4 Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas Pick: Tennessee -13.5
- Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon (-24) -- Friday Pick: Michigan St +24
- UCLA at No. 7 Penn State Pick (O/U 46) Pick: Over 46
- No. 8 Miami (-10.5) at Cal Pick: Miami -10.5
- No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (-2.5) Pick: Missouri +2.5
- No. 10 Michigan at Washington (-2.5) Pick: Michigan +2.5
- No. 11 USC (-8.5) at Minnesota Pick: USC -8.5
- No. 12 Ole Miss (-9.5) at South Carolina Pick: South Carolina +9.5
- Baylor at No. 16 Iowa State (-11.5) Pick: Iowa State -11.5
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for seven outright upsets in Week 6 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.
