The first 12-team College Football Playoff is right around the corner. First-round games are set to begin on Friday, Dec. 20, getting the ball rolling on a process that will, beyond a shadow of a doubt, decide the top team in the sport.
Not all paths to the national championship are created equal. The four highest-ranked conference champions -- this year, No. 1 seed Oregon, No. 2 seed Georgia, No. 3 seed Boise State and No. 4 seed Arizona State -- all receive first-round byes. That means they will get an extra week of rest and an extra week of relatively stress-free practice to prepare for the quarterfinals.
By comparison, teams that didn't earn a bye would have to win four straight games in the span of around a month to take home the national title. For seeds 5-8, that burden is alleviated a bit by the fact that they get to play their first playoff game at home.
That means things are especially difficult for the last three at-large teams to make it in and the one conference champion that didn't rank quite high enough to skip the first round.
With an increased amount of games to consider, it felt appropriate to rank each playoff team's path from easiest to most difficult. Every potential matchup, all the way down to the College Football Playoff National Championship, was considered when deciding the hierarchy.
12. Penn State
First game: At home vs. No. 11 seed SMU
Penn State has already announced that its first-ever College Football Playoff game will be a "White Out," which means the Nittany Lions have an inherent advantage beyond the typical home crowd boost. They also get the benefit of playing an SMU team that (rightfully) made the field after losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. The Mustangs are very good, and they won their 11 games by an average of 19.4 points, but they don't have a win against a currently ranked team. If Penn State wins, it sets up a showdown against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. That will also be a big test, but it isn't as bad as having to play the Oregons and Georgias of the world.
11. Boise State
First game: Winner of No. 6 seed Penn State vs. No. 11 seed SMU in the Fiesta Bowl
Boise State didn't just make the College Football Playoff -- it broke the door down. The Broncos earned a first-round bye after cruising past UNLV in the MWC Championship Game and improving to 12-1 on the year. Such an effort rewards them with a fairly manageable path. They'll kick off their national championship journey against either SMU, which is 0-2 against currently ranked teams this year, or a Penn State team that has a penchant for fading in big-time games.
10. Texas
First game: At home vs. No. 12 seed Clemson
Texas held onto the all-important 5-seed after a narrow loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That means the Longhorns get to play the only three-loss team to ever make the College Football Playoff (Clemson) and the lowest-ranked team with a first-round bye (Arizona State). Clemson is a legitimate threat when it can play a complete game, but the Tigers are too inconsistent to project a deep postseason run. Arizona State is a great, well-coached football team. Texas has the talent advantage, though. That would be a fun game to watch either way.
9. Georgia
First game: Winner of No. 7 seed Notre Dame vs. No. 10 seed Indiana in Sugar Bowl
Injury to starting quarterback Carson Beck aside, Georgia's path isn't terrible. Notre Dame is probably under-seeded with its 11-1 record, but this is the same Fighting Irish team that lost to Northern Illinois earlier in the year. Indiana did eviscerate a majority of the teams it played this year. It also lost 38-15 in its lone game against a ranked opponent (Ohio State) and has a significant on-paper talent disadvantage against most teams in the playoff -- especially Georgia.
8. Arizona State
First game: Winner of No. 5 seed Texas vs. No. 12 seed Clemson in Peach Bowl
Things, realistically, could have been much worse for Arizona State after it landed the last first-round bye. Texas definitely has national championship upside, but the Longhorns are 0-2 against currently ranked opponents this year. Then, as mentioned above, Clemson is the only three-loss team to ever qualify for the College Football Playoff. That being said, the Tigers are a pretty dangerous 12-seed with the capability of going on a significant run. Arizona State also has Oregon, Tennessee and Ohio State on its side of the bracket, were the Sun Devils to make it that far.
7. Clemson
First game: On the road vs. No. 5 seed Texas
Clemson stole a bid by beating SMU in the ACC Championship Game to make its first College Football Playoff appearance since 2020. Now the Tigers have to travel to Austin to play one of the nation's most talented rosters in Texas. Advancing means a trip to the Peach Bowl to play Arizona State, which is riding a six-game winning streak. Two of those wins came against currently ranked teams, including a 45-19 beatdown of No. 18 Iowa State, which won 10 games for the first time in program history.
6. SMU
First game: On the road vs. No. 6 seed Penn State
Even though SMU's first-round game against Penn State will kick off at noon ET, there are few environments more difficult to play in than the notorious Nittany Lion "White Out." It will be unlike anything SMU saw this year while winning 11 regular-season games. A win sets a date against a scorching-hot Boise State squad, led by Heisman Trophy finalist running back Ashton Jeanty, that went 12-1 with a MWC title. Its only loss was by three points on the road against top-ranked Oregon.
5. Notre Dame
First game: At home vs. No. 10 seed Indiana
Notre Dame ripped off 10 straight wins to earn a first-round home game against an in-state foe that it's only played 29 times since 1898. In that relatively brief sample size, the Fighting Irish are 13-1-1 at home against the Hoosiers. These aren't the Hoosiers of yesteryear, though. Indiana won 10 of its 11 games by at least two possessions. Only three teams scored above 20 points against Indiana, while the Hoosiers averaged 43.3 points per game -- second-most in the FBS. Get past Indiana and Notre Dame would have to play No. 2 seed Georgia, the SEC champion with a 4-2 against currently ranked opponents.
4. Ohio State
First game: At home vs. No. 9 seed Tennessee
Ohio State does get the benefit of playing at home in the first round. It also has to host a 10-2 SEC team in Tennessee. Sure, the Vols haven't been great on the road, but an old adage states that "defense travels." Tennessee has plenty of that; it currently ranks fourth nationally in scoring defense (13.9 points per game) and total defense (278 yards per game). A win against Tennessee sends Ohio State to the Rose Bowl, where it would throw down against an Oregon team that beat it 32-31 in a regular season thriller.
3. Oregon
First game: Winner of No. 8 seed Ohio State vs. No. 9 seed Tennessee in the Rose Bowl
Though coach Dan Lanning embraced the challenge, Oregon has every right to be at least a little frustrated with its tournament draw. Normally, the top overall seed is granted a favorable path as a pseudo-reward for its efforts to this point. Well, as the only remaining undefeated FBS team, Oregon was gifted a first game against either Ohio State's $20 million roster or Tennessee and its defense that ranks near the top nationally in most major statistical categories. At least the Ducks don't have to travel too far, comparably, to play in the Rose Bowl. Oh, and the possible semifinal opponents include Clemson, Texas and Arizona State.
2. Indiana
First game: On the road against No. 7 seed Notre Dame
This will be the first meeting between Indiana and Notre Dame since 1991. The Hoosiers haven't beaten the in-state Fighting Irish since 1950. Of course, there haven't been many opportunities for the two to play. There's no doubt that the Notre Dame home crowd will be fired up, creating a very difficult environment for Indiana. Then, if the Hoosiers make it through, they have to play SEC champion Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. An extremely unenviable potential two-game stretch for Indiana.
1. Tennessee
First game: On the road against No. 8 seed Ohio State
Tennessee plays its first College Football Playoff game in program history at Ohio State, which is an extremely difficult task in a vacuum. Then you consider how bad the Vols have been in truly hostile environments under coach Josh Heupel. During the 2024 regular season, they lost on the road against an Arkansas team that finished 3-5 in SEC play and then by 14 points at Georgia. Tennessee also went 1-3 on the road in 2023, including losses to unranked Florida and a 29-point defeat against Missouri. If Tennessee gets past Ohio State, it has to travel three time zones to play top-seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Not to mention the fact that Texas, Clemson and Arizona State -- two conference championship winners and a preseason national title favorite -- loom as potential semifinal matchups.
