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Fantasy baseball weekend takeaways: Tarik Skubal returns, Spencer Strider's future darkens and more

Chris Towers highlights major injuries, encouraging returns and emerging breakouts from this weekend's slate

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• 15 min read
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We lost another superstar to the IL this weekend. 

This time, it was Jose Ramirez, who became the eighth MLB hitter to suffer a fractured hamate bone Saturday. Vinnie Pasquantino became the ninth when he was placed on the IL Sunday. In case you were wondering, there were 10 players in 2023, 2024, and 2025 combined who went on the IL with hamate bone injuries, so yeah, we're seeing a bit of a rash of them right now. 

Ramirez is, of course, the biggest blow, and his injury comes within weeks of Elly De La Cruz, Aaron Judge and Ronald Acuna going on the IL, and after other big names like Roman Anthony, Munetaka Murakami, Cal Raleigh, Drake Baldwin, and more hit the shelf. Surviving injuries is an important part of winning in Fantasy, and if you've been hit lately, you've been hit hard. In yesterday's newsletter, looking at the top waiver wire targets for Week 13, we started with a look at some of the top replacements at third base for Ramirez, who will likely miss at least four weeks – and potentially double that, based on historical timelines. 

Here's who you should be looking to add if you need 3B help: 

You could also look for names like Bryce Eldridge, Jac Caglianone, Paul Goldschmidt, or Andrew Vaughn if you're looking for corner infield help – or if you were still starting Vinnie Pasquantino and need a first baseman. One thing I'll note: Vaughn has made a couple of appearances in the past week at third base in an effort to find more playing time. We'll see if that helps him get closer to the everyday at-bats he probably deserves at this point. 

Before we get to the rest of the biggest storylines and news from this weekend's MLB action, let's get those lineups set for Week 13: 

Week 13 Preview

Week 13 waiver targets

For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. 

Week 13 sleeper hitters

Best hitter matchups for Week 13

1. Pirates @ATH3, @COL3
2. Angels @ARI3, @ATH4
3. Royals @WAS3, STL3
4. Tigers @HOU3, CHW3
5. Rangers MIN3, SD3  

Worst hitter matchups for Week 13

1. Orioles @SEA3, @LAD3
2. Red Sox TOR3, @SEA3
3. Mets @CIN3, @PHI3
4. White Sox @NYY3, @DET3
5. Marlins @PHI3, SF3  

Top sleeper hitters for Week 13

  1. Spencer Horwitz, 1B, Pirates (51%) @ATH3, @COL3
  2. Jac Caglianone, OF, Royals (71%) @WAS3, STL3
  3. Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants (72%) @ATL3, @MIA3
  4. Zack Gelof, 3B, Athletics (51%) PIT3, LAA4
  5. Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers (66%) @HOU3, CHW3

Week 13 sleeper pitchers

You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. 

Top sleeper pitchers for Week 13

  1. Dustin May, Cardinals (71%) vs. SD, at KC
  2. Reid Detmers, Angels (79%) at ARI, at ATH
  3. J.T. Ginn, Athletics (70%) vs. PIT, vs. LAA
  4. Jared Jones, Pirates (79%) at ATH, at COL
  5. Michael McGreevy, Cardinals (67%) at KC

Biggest Weekend Takeaways

Tarik Skubal looked like himself

The results weren't exactly vintage Skubal, but given that he was about five weeks removed from elbow surgery and made just one rehab start, I'm not going to complain about four strikeouts in 4.2 innings while allowing two earned runs. Especially when Skubal otherwise looked like himself. In fact, Skubal actually had a 1.2-mph jump in velocity from where he had been entering the start, averaging 97.9 mph with his four-seamer. He generated nine swinging strikes on 80 pitches, which isn't quite the dominance we typically expect of him, but again, consider the circumstances.

It's hard to know how Skubal will fare moving forward, and it's impossible to know if he'll stay healthy. We're in pretty much totally uncharted territory with his swift recovery from elbow surgery, and making predictions based off outliers is tough to do. But Skubal looked like himself, and I don't have a good reason to think he's at any more risk of injury than any other pitcher coming back from a relatively minor cleanup surgery – his accelerated timetable to return came as a result of a less invasive version of arthroscopic surgery, which required less healing. 

So, I'm pretty much just treating Skubal as if he'll be himself moving forward, which means I'll rank him no lower than third among starting pitchers the rest of the way. Given the uncertainty and inherent risk with anyone who recently had surgery, he might just be third, but if he goes out and strikes out 12 in his next outing, it'll be hard to justify having anyone ahead of him. And he's more than capable of that. 

Spencer Strider went down again

You've gotta have some questions for the Braves after this one. Strider sat at 95.7 mph in the first inning, then dropped to 93.9 in the second and 92.4 by the third inning, with his last fastball sitting at 90.8. And yet they somehow let him come back out to stay out there for the fourth inning, where he faced one batter, walked him on six pitches, didn't even hit 90 mph, and was subsequently pulled from the game. 

Strider was, perhaps unsurprisingly, diagnosed with elbow inflammation, which is probably just a placeholder designation for now. Strider will visit with Dr. Keith Meister at some point this week, and we'll likely get a more specific diagnosis at that point, but I'm not expecting good news from that. Dr. Meister performed the internal brace procedure on Strider's elbow during the 2024 season, and now that doesn't mean Strider has suffered a worst-case scenario injury again, it's worth noting. 

If you have the IL spot to play with, by all means, keep Strider stashed. But if you need the roster spot, I definitely think he's droppable at this point – we haven't seen the rebound in either the quality of his stuff or the results he was producing even before this injury, so I don't know how you could have much optimism about him whenever he does come back from this one. It's such a bummer how far Strider has fallen, but I just don't think we're ever going to see an impact version of him in the majors again. At least not anytime soon. 

Las Vegas was a hitter's paradise

We thought the two series the Athletics played in Vegas would be offense-heavy, but I don't think anyone could have predicted the extent to which the pitchers got absolutely dominated last week. Playing outdoors in the dry Vegas heat, at an elevation more than 2,000 feet above sea level, the Vegas Triple-A stadium was just an absolute launching pad – there were 35 homers hit in six games, with seven traveling at least 450 feet, the highest total for any ballpark in the majors this season. Again, they played just six games there. The Rockies capped off the weekend with a 23-9 win, the second game with at least 29 games scored in that venue – there haven't been more than 25 runs scored in any other games this season. On the whole, the two series saw 102 runs scored, or 17 per game across the six games. 

This probably doesn't matter much moving forward – A's will be moving to Vegas in 2028, but to an indoor venue that should mitigate at least some of the environmental effects that caused the balls to fly the way they did this week. But some of those effects will surely still be in play, and I'd be surprised if the A's didn't opt for extremely deep dimensions in the new park after seeing how the way the ball was flying here.

Jackson Chourio has leveled up

When a player debuts as young as Chourio did, it can be easy to forget once they've logged some time under their belts. Chourio seemingly stalled out in his second season, taking a step back in both his surface-level numbers and his underlying, skills-based indicators. Doing that when everyone expected him to take a big step forward meant many analysts and players went into this season expecting more of the same from Chourio, despite the fact that he was still younger than most of the guys populating top prospect lists entering his third MLB season.

But if you bet on a breakout, well, it's looking like a heck of a bet so far. Chourio got a late start to the season after suffering a fractured hand during the World Baseball Classic, but despite missing more than a month, he's already up to nine homers – just 12 fewer than last season in 96 fewer games. And it's not a fluke, as he has added three mph to his average exit velocity, up from a below-average 89.3 mph to a borderline elite 92.3. The rest of his batted-ball indicators have improved, as well, from his hard-hit rate to his expected wOBA on contact, and he's even hitting the ball in the air a bit more often, too. It comes with a trade-off in terms of Chourio's strikeout rate, jumping from 20.5% to 24.8%, but that's still a manageable rate, and a trade-off well worth making if it comes with this kind of improvement in quality of contact.

It remains to be seen if Chourio can sustain these gains, of course. It's just a month or so of games, after all, and he might just be hot. But Chourio has also seen improvements in his swing decisions and contact rates that suggest we're just seeing across-the-board improvements from a supremely talented player who just turned 22. I'm buying in. 

Bryce Miller has leveled up

Jose Soriano stands as a testament to not getting too excited about apparent breakthroughs when the sample size is just a month long or so, so I'm not coming out and pounding the table to prove that Miller is suddenly one of the best pitchers in baseball because he has a 1.54 ERA and 0.71 WHIP through his first six starts of the season.

But I'm open to the possibility!

Unlike with Soriano, it's not like this is the first time we've seen Miller be a very good pitcher: In 2024, remember, he put up a 2.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP as a 25-year-old, looking for all the world like the next great Mariners pitcher. His follow-up was a disaster, but Miller spent much of 2025 pitching through bone spurs in his right elbow and clearly wasn't healthy. He just as clearly is now, as he continues to throw nearly 2 mph harder with his four-seamer than he did a year ago, while generating excellent results across his arsenal. Friday against the Nationals, Miller struck out seven over eight two-run innings, and he's now up to 36 strikeouts in 35 innings with his typically great control looking even better than usual. 

I expect Miller to regress from this point, of course. His 4.0% walk rate is 2.4 points worse than even his 2024 mark, and he's never been even close to this level of strikeout pitcher. He is generating more swing-and-miss, both in the strike zone and on chases, but I'd probably take the under on a 28.8% strikeout rate the rest of the way. But even saying that, I don't necessarily think you need to be doing everything you can to try to trade Miller now. There's some elevated health risk here – he never got the bone spurs removed last season, after all – but I still expect Miller to be a very good pitcher as long as he's healthy. Indeed, I think we are seeing the best version of him yet. 

Don't let the sell-high window on Bryce Elder, Emerson Hancock slam shut

I recognize a bit of a "Boy who cried wolf" element to me saying Elder's window is slamming shut. I've been skeptical of him all season, so doing a victory lap when he finally had a bad start is a little gauche. So don't consider this a victory lap. I've been wrong about Elder, who has gone from legitimately being one of the worst pitchers in baseball to someone who absolutely belongs in Atlanta's rotation. You can say something similar for Hancock, who looked like just rotation depth before the season and now looks like he belongs. That's a big development win for both pitchers and their teams, and their gains are real.

But you should still be trying to sell both. Hancock's sell-high case is a bit clearer even before he gave up six runs in four innings Sunday. His strikeout rate has been propped up by a few big performances and has been fading fast, with much of his success attributable to an unsustainably low .257 BABIP and unsustainably high 80.5% left-on-base rate. His 3.28 ERA comes with a 3.81 FIP and an xERA north of 4.40, so while he has improved, Hancock's skills indicators don't suggest someone who should be a difference maker moving forward. I think it's more likely we view Hancock as just a streaming type by August than a must-start pitcher, so I'd be hitting the phones now trying to move him before that realization sets in for everyone.

With Elder, the case is both more and less obvious. He entered Sunday's start with a 2.66 ERA backed up by a 3.01 xERA, so it's hard to argue he has gotten outrageously lucky – he really has been generating a lot more weak contact, which combines with modest improvements to his strikeout and walk rates to help him take a big step forward. In this instance, I just don't think it's sustainable. Improving this much in quality of contact allowed usually doesn't last, and the rest of Elder's peripherals suggest there's been less improvement – his 3.76 FIP is still solid, but a 4.10 SIERA is basically in line with what he's done the past couple of seasons.

Elder still belongs on rosters, which is more than we could have said about him last year, certainly. But like Hancock, the improvement we've seen from him doesn't come close to explaining why his results have been so much better. If you still have the chance to move him for someone potentially impactful, I'd be trying to do that. In both instances, I think the ERA ends up above 4.00 by the end of the season. 

Ryan Weathers is tough to trust right now

And just like that, Weathers' ERA for the season is up to 4.36. He was hammered yet again Friday, giving up six runs over 4.1 innings, his third start in a row (and fourth in five) with at least five runs allowed. Before that run, he had a 3.00 ERA, but there have been warning signs here all along – that 3.00 ERA came with a 4.31 xERA, almost exactly where he has settled in. Weathers has mostly still gotten a lot of strikeouts (though that is trending down, too), so the biggest issue all season has been the amount of loud contact he's been giving up. He mostly managed to avoid too much damage early on, but he's been giving up hard-hit batted balls in the air all season, and it has caught up to him over the past month. 

It is worth noting that Weathers has already thrown nearly twice as many innings this season as he did in 2025, and he's only about a dozen innings from matching his 2024 total. He's on pace to get to over 100 by the All-Star game, a total he hasn't reached in a full season since 2023, and while I'm not worried that he's running out of steam, necessarily, I do think it's worthy of keeping his workload in mind because the Yankees are probably already plotting how to limit his innings. 

Weathers probably isn't one of the team's four best starters at this point, and once Max Fried is healthy, he probably isn't one of their five best, so a move to the bullpen before the postseason seems to make a lot of sense. The time to trade him in anticipation of this was back in May, when it looked like he was going to have a breakout, and now your best bet might be to just stash him on your bench and hope he turns things around and gives you some value before the end comes. These days, it's looking more likely that end will come long before the season ends. 

Signs of life from Bubba Chandler

I think we're through the worst of it. I don't think we're anywhere close to trusting Chandler, who still has a 4.76 ERA (and 4.16 xERA), but we might be on the path there. Chandler walked just one batter over 5.2 innings of work Saturday against the Marlins, his fourth start in a row with two or fewer walks – he had just one stretch with even back-to-back starts of two or fewer walks prior to this one, so this counts as a legitimately huge step forward.

It's not like he's been uniformly excellent in that span, of course. His past two starts have been pretty solid, with 13 strikeouts to three walks and four earned runs in 11 innings, but he gave up eight runs in the two starts prior to that. So, we're looking at baby steps here, and from watching the start, I don't think Chandler has suddenly developed even average command. And, with a start in Coors Field next up, there's no way I'm ready to get Chandler back in my starting lineup. 

But I'm losing the urge to drop him. I'll take that, because I still think Chandler can be a legitimate difference maker once he settles in for good. And he might be starting to figure that out. 

Signs of life from Bo Bichette

Like with Chandler, I don't think we're out of the woods yet with Bichette. But I think we can let our guards down just a bit now. His overall numbers are still dreadful, but Bichette had multiple hits in all three games this weekend and has multiple hits in six of his past 10 games. He's hitting .333/.333/.625 in the month of June, and while that still comes with an elevated 24% strikeout rate (and obviously zero walks), it has also come with a 91.8 mph average exit velocity, a .295 xBA, and a .455 xSLG, the best marks of any month of the season for Bichette. For the season, Bichette's xwOBA is up to .330, not quite last year's level, but a lot better than his actual mark, and that's a good enough reason for me to keep the faith. And that's getting easier with every two-hit game. 

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