If Justin Herbert plays a full game in Week 18 at Las Vegas then I like him as a No. 1 quarterback in all leagues. But we might not know what Herbert will do until Saturday night.
Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati on Saturday, and if the Steelers win then they are the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The Chargers would then be locked into the No. 6 seed no matter what happens against the Raiders.
But if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh then the Chargers need to win Sunday for the No. 5 seed, and Herbert could have a dominant game at Las Vegas. He has scored at least 26.2 Fantasy points in each of his past two games against Denver and New England, and the Raiders won't slow him down.
While Las Vegas has held Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler to fewer than 16 Fantasy points in the past three games, eight quarterbacks have scored at least 22.2 Fantasy points against the Raiders this season. Herbert only scored 12.4 Fantasy points against Las Vegas in Week 1, but he's a better Fantasy quarterback now.
I hope we get to see Herbert play a full game against the Raiders. If that happens then expect a big performance in Week 18.
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QBs to Start
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The Buccaneers need to win this game to lock up the NFC South title, and Mayfield is on fire heading into Week 18. He has scored at least 25 Fantasy points in four games in a row, and he scored 33.9 Fantasy points at New Orleans in Week 6. The Saints have also allowed two of the past three opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21.6 Fantasy points, and Mayfield has top-five upside in Week 18.
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Darnold has the chance to lead the Vikings to the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win at Detroit. He's playing great coming into Week 18 with at least 23.6 Fantasy points in six of his past seven games. And while he only scored 18.3 Fantasy points against the Lions in Week 7, this Detroit defense is banged up and should struggle to stop Minnesota's passing game. Three quarterbacks in a row have scored at least 26.8 Fantasy points against the Lions, and Darnold should have a big performance in Week 18.
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The Lions need a big game from Goff to lock up the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Detroit's defense isn't going to stop Minnesota's passing attack, so we should be looking at a shootout. Goff has scored at least 28 Fantasy points in four games in a row, and he scored 22.8 Fantasy points against the Vikings in Week 7. Minnesota has only allowed one quarterback to score over 20 Fantasy points in its past five games, but Goff should still stay hot in this epic Week 18 matchup.
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Nix was awesome as the Start of the Week in Week 17 at Cincinnati with 219 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception, and he added 31 rushing yards for 27.9 Fantasy points. He's now scored at least 23.4 Fantasy points in four of his past six games, including two in a row, and he scored 20.1 Fantasy points at Kansas City in Week 10. The Chiefs are planning to rest starters for the playoffs, and the Broncos need this game to lock up the final wild-card spot. Nix should have the chance for a big outing in Week 18.
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Murray fell short of 20 Fantasy points in Week 17 at the Rams with two interceptions, but he played well with 33-of-48 passing for 321 yards and one touchdown, along with 32 rushing yards. He's struggled down the stretch with only two games over 20 Fantasy points in his past six outings, but he should close the season on a high note. He scored 26.1 Fantasy points at San Francisco in Week 5, and the 49ers defense is beat up heading into Week 18. I would trust Murray as a low-end starter in this matchup.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Smith has been an awful Fantasy quarterback down the stretch with one game over 20 Fantasy points in his past seven outings. But he should do well against the Rams in Week 18, especially with Los Angeles expected to rest starters for the playoffs. Smith has a lot of money on the line in this game. He needs 186 passing yards to top his career high (4,282), which triggers a $2 million incentive bonus. If his completion percentage is a career high (69.755) -- right now he's at 70.2 percent -- he gets another $2 million. And if Seattle wins the game and finishes 10-7 then Smith gets another $2 million. There are other incentives Smith can get, but they are out of reach. But playing for $6 million should help Smith do well in Week 18.
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The Steelers want to win Saturday against the Bengals, even if the Ravens beat the Browns and lock up the AFC North title. A victory against Cincinnati would give Pittsburgh the No. 5 seed and a matchup at Houston, compared to being the No. 6 seed and playing at Baltimore. So expect Wilson to go all out, and he scored 32.9 Fantasy points at Cincinnati in Week 13. He's been held to under 20 Fantasy points in three games in a row, but the Bengals are No. 5 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. I'm expecting Wilson to be a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in Week 18.
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Dobbs will start in Week 18 at Arizona in place of Brock Purdy (elbow), and I like Dobbs as a low-end starter in all leagues. Dobbs came on for Purdy against Detroit in Week 17 and was 3-of-4 passing for 35 yards, and he ran for a 7-yard touchdown. Last year, Dobbs was a starter for the Cardinals and Vikings and scored at least 18.9 Fantasy points in seven of 13 games, and now he gets a revenge game against Arizona. He should make plenty of plays with his legs, and last year he scored at least 8.1 Fantasy points with just his rushing totals alone in six games.
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QBs to Sit
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As of Wednesday afternoon, it seems like the Texans will play their starters for some of Sunday's game at Tennessee, but not the whole contest. Stroud could clearly do well in limited action, but he's scored more than 20 Fantasy points just once since Week 6. He had 19.7 Fantasy points against the Titans in Week 12, but that was in a full game. It's hard to trust Stroud if he's not playing four quarters, and that doesn't seem likely with Houston locked into the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, no matter what happens in Week 18.
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Rodgers had one of his better games this season in Week 14 at Miami when he passed for 339 yards and one touchdown for 19.6 Fantasy points, and that was his only 300-yard game of the year. But he's looked awful in the past two games against the Rams and Bills, and he combined for just 15.3 Fantasy points over that span. Rodgers needs one touchdown for 500 in his Hall of Fame career, and he could reach that milestone against the Dolphins. But it's hard to expect much more from Rodgers, who has scored more than 20 Fantasy points just twice since Week 9.
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We'll see how long the Packers play their starters in Week 18, but Williams will be tough to trust in this matchup. He scored 16.2 Fantasy points against Green Bay in Week 11, and Williams has scored 18.1 Fantasy points or less in three of his past four outings. The Packers are also No. 3 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and only three quarterbacks have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against Green Bay since Week 8.
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