Fantasy Football Week 16 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: Let Baker Mayfield lead you to a championship

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The time is now. Championship week. It's here. You did it.

Now, you just need to win one more game.

Are you ready? Excited? Nervous?

I'm sure there are plenty of emotions you're dealing with. After all, there's a lot on the line. But don't worry.

You drafted a great team. Made the right waiver wire moves and trades. You've done your job.

The only thing left is for your players to show up. And that's out of your control.

Just do your homework this week. Look at the matchups, the situations for your players, and set your lineup with confidence. Then sit back, and hopefully the outcome is great.

Hopefully, when Week 16 is over, you can call yourself a champion. Good luck.

Editor's Note: Projections are provided by SportsLine.com. Projected points are for PPR leagues.

Start of the Week

The last time Baker Mayfield played the Bengals in Week 12, he had revenge on his mind. After all, he was facing his former head coach Hue Jackson, who was hired as a special assistant to Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis after he was fired by the Browns.

Mayfield put on a show that day with the best performance of his rookie season. He scored 34 Fantasy points behind 258 passing yards and four touchdowns. Mayfield also took a shot at Jackson after the game, calling him fake.

Ready for Round 2?

Well, it happens this week, and Mayfield expects a tough test by the Bengals. I'm expecting Mayfield to respond with another strong performance on the field.

He's scored 15 Fantasy points in each of his past three games, but he had some tough matchups at Houston, vs. Carolina and at Denver. The Bengals don't pose the same challenge since they allow the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the season.

Nine quarterbacks have scored at least 22 Fantasy points against Cincinnati this year, including Mayfield, and this will be the final home game of his rookie campaign. I'm expecting fireworks in Cleveland, and Mayfield should torture Jackson one more time.

I'm starting Mayfield over: Philip Rivers (vs. BAL), Lamar Jackson (vs. LAC), Kirk Cousins (at DET), Josh Allen (at NE) and Jameis Winston (at DAL)

Quarterbacks

Sleepers

• Sam Darnold (vs. GB): Darnold had his best game of the season in Week 15 against Houston with 24-of-38 passing for 253 yards and two touchdowns, along with 35 rushing yards. He has the chance for a solid encore at home in Week 16 against the Packers, who have nothing to play for and have struggled on defense most of the season, especially on the road. Four of the past five quarterbacks against Green Bay have scored at least 22 Fantasy points, with the lone exception Josh Rosen in Week 13. Darnold is a great streaming option in two-quarterback and super-flex leagues this week.
• Derek Carr (vs. DEN): Carr was a letdown in Week 15 at Cincinnati since he scored just 15 Fantasy points, which snapped a two-game streak of him scoring at least 22 points. He should have the chance to rebound at home in Week 16 against the Broncos, who are dealing with multiple injuries in the secondary. Carr has scored at least 22 Fantasy points in two of his past four games at home, and this could be the Raiders last game in Oakland. Denver also has allowed multiple touchdowns in the past two games against Nick Mullens and Baker Mayfield.
• Nick Foles (vs. HOU): Foles didn't have a great Fantasy game in Week 15 at the Rams, but he played well, completing 24 of 31 passes for 270 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. He only scored eight Fantasy points, but he could be an option in two-quarterback and super-flex leagues in Week 16 against Houston. The Texans are playing consecutive road games this week, and Darnold just had a solid outing against this defense in Week 15.

Bust Alert

Allen is on a tear coming into Week 16 at New England. In his past four games, he's averaging 24.5 Fantasy points per game over that span, and clearly his rushing production is the biggest reason. He has at least seven Fantasy points with just his rushing totals alone in his past four outings, with three rushing touchdowns, as well as three games with at least 99 rushing yards. But it could be tough to trust him in Week 16 at New England. The Patriots will make things difficult for Allen and will likely limit his rushing ability, forcing him to throw. Since he's yet to top 245 passing yards in a game and has four interceptions in his past three outings, it might take a career effort for him to deliver a strong performance. I'm fine with Allen in two-quarterback and super-flex leagues this week, but I'm hesitant to start him in one-quarterback formats at New England.

Running backs

Sleepers

• Damien Williams (at SEA): The reason Williams is listed here instead of as a must-start option is due to the uncertainty of Spencer Ware (hamstring) playing in Week 16. If Ware is out again then start Williams in all leagues after his performance in Week 15 against the Chargers when he had 10 carries for 49 yards and two touchdowns, along with six catches for 74 yards on six targets. He also had two touchdowns in Week 14 against Baltimore with Ware healthy for that outing. And Seattle has allowed a running back to score at least 14 PPR points in eight games in a row.
• Elijah McGuire (vs. GB): McGuire has stepped up in the past two weeks with Isaiah Crowell (toe) hurt. He's scored in consecutive games since Crowell first got hurt in Week 14 at Buffalo, and he has 35 carries for 102 yards and two touchdowns, as well as six catches for 52 yards on eight targets over that span. Trenton Cannon will get some work in tandem with McGuire, but it's clear that McGuire will be the featured running back in Week 16 against the Packers. And Green Bay has allowed a running back to score or gain at least 100 total yards in seven of the past eight games.
• Jamaal Williams (at NYJ): Aaron Jones (knee) is out for the season, so we should see Williams once again in a featured role for the Packers. Williams played well in Week 15 at Chicago after Jones got hurt with 12 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown, as well as four catches for 42 yards on five targets. Williams started the first two games of the season with Jones suspended and struggled, scoring a combined 13 PPR points against Chicago and Minnesota. But this is a much easier matchup against the Jets, who have allowed four touchdowns to running backs in their past five games.
• Kalen Ballage (vs. JAC): With Frank Gore (foot) out, the Dolphins appear ready to give Ballage a big role, ahead of Kenyan Drake. It's a little odd that Drake isn't expected to get more touches, but Ballage took over for Gore in Week 15 at Minnesota and played well. He had 12 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown, as well as one catch for minus-2 yards. I'm still expecting Drake to get a slight bump in his workload, but he's had nine total touches or less in three games in a row coming into Week 16. Gore had at least 13 total touches in five of his past six games prior to Week 15, and that's the workload Ballage could get. It's a tough matchup against Jacksonville, but Ballage is worth using as a flex option in Week 16.
• Mike Davis (vs. KC): As much as I like Carson as a must-start option this week, I would also use Davis as a flex, especially in PPR. In Week 15 against the 49ers, with Penny out, Davis had five carries for 21 yards, as well as eight catches for 63 yards on eight targets. The Seahawks are likely going to be in a high-scoring affair with the Chiefs, and Davis will be vital in the passing game. Kansas City is tied for fifth in the NFL in receptions allowed to running backs with 88 for the season.

Bust Alert

Fournette is dealing with a foot injury again, which is something to monitor heading into Sunday. But if he plays as expected, it's hard to trust him, even with a great matchup against the Dolphins. The offensive line in Jacksonville is a disaster due to injuries, and Cody Kessler isn't helping the offense at quarterback. In his past two games against Tennessee and Washington, Fournette has scored a combined 13 PPR points. He lost carries to David Williams in Week 15 against Washington, possibly because of his foot, but this isn't the week to trust Fournette, even against the Dolphins. The Jaguars are limping to the finish line on the season, and Fournette could leave you with minimal production in a key spot.

Wide receivers

Sleepers

• Robert Foster (at NE): Foster has quietly been on a tear since Week 10, and he's worth using as at least a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues in Week 16 at New England. In his past five games, Foster has at least 13 PPR points in four, including three games with more than 100 receiving yards, as well as two touchdowns. He has 13 targets in his past two games against the Jets and Lions, and he finished with 11 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown in those outings. In their past five games, six receivers have scored at least 11 PPR points against the Patriots.
• Mike Williams (vs. BAL): Williams is listed here with the chance that Keenan Allen (hip) is out against the Ravens. And we saw the upside for Williams last week at Kansas City after Allen got hurt. He had season highs in targets (nine) and receptions (seven), and he finished with 76 yards and two touchdowns, as well as a 19-yard rushing score. It won't be easy against Baltimore, but if Williams can be the focal point for Philip Rivers, you should start him in all leagues. And Tyrell Williams would also get a boost if Allen is out. Tyrell Williams had six catches for 71 yards on 12 targets after Allen got hurt against the Chiefs.
• Antonio Callaway (vs. CIN): Callaway has either 80 receiving yards or a touchdown in three of his past four games, including Week 12 at Cincinnati when he had four catches for 62 yards and a score on five targets. Baker Mayfield is leaning on Callaway with at least five targets in three of his past four outings, and he can be considered a No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week against the Bengals at home. A receiver has scored at least 14 PPR points against Cincinnati in each of the past four games.
• DaeSean Hamilton (at OAK): In PPR leagues, Hamilton could be considered a must-start option given his production over the past two games. In the first two games without Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles), Hamilton has 21 targets for 14 catches, 93 yards and one touchdown. He's scored at least 11 PPR points in each game over that span, and he should continue to be a favorite target for Case Keenum against the Raiders, who have allowed eight touchdowns to opposing receivers in their past five games.
• Tre'Quan Smith (vs. PIT): I'm taking a flier on Smith as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week since he's back at home. In his past two home games in Week 9 against the Rams and Week 11 against Philadelphia, he has 12 catches for 180 yards and three touchdowns on 16 targets. He missed Week 12 against Atlanta with a toe injury and then spent the past three weeks on the road, but I'll take a flier on him in deeper leagues this week against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed five receivers to either score or gain at least 90 receiving yards in their past four games.

Bust Alert

Golladay snapped out of his two-game funk in Week 15 at Buffalo with seven catches for 146 yards on eight targets. Prior to that, he had five catches for 55 yards on 12 targets against the Rams and Cardinals. He already faced Minnesota in Week 9 and finished with three catches for 46 yards on four targets, and he should see a lot of Rhodes this week, which is a tough matchup. The Vikings are No. 2 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and they have only given up nine touchdowns to the position all season. Golladay is just a No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week in most leagues.

Tight ends

Sleepers

• Chris Herndon (vs. GB): Herndon has gone six games in a row without scoring a touchdown, but he's essentially the No. 2 receiver in this offense behind Robby Anderson. And this week, Herndon is facing a Packers defense that has nothing to play for in this game on the road. Green Bay has allowed a tight end to score in two of the past five games, including Trey Burton in Week 15. And two tight ends in the past four games against the Packers -- Kyle Rudolph in Week 12 and Burton last week -- have scored 13 PPR points. Herndon is a low-end starting option in all leagues in Week 16.
• Blake Jarwin (vs. TB): Jarwin has become the No. 3 receiving option in Dallas behind Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott, especially with Cole Beasley (foot) hurt. He has seven targets in each of the past two games against Philadelphia and Indianapolis, and he's converted them into 11 catches for 101 yards, which is good for a combined 20 PPR points over that span. This week, he's facing a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled with tight ends for most of the season. There have been 13 tight ends with at least four targets against the Buccaneers this year, and 11 have scored at least eight PPR points. If Jarwin continues to be involved in the offense and can score at least eight PPR points, that would put him in the mix as a low-end starter in Week 16.
• Matt LaCosse (at OAK): LaCosse is worth a flier in deeper leagues given the matchup with the Raiders. Oakland leads the NFL in Fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and LaCosse is coming off a game where he was featured in Week 15 against Cleveland. He had a season-high six targets against the Browns and finished with four catches for 43 yards. In Week 2 against the Raiders, Case Keenum leaned on his tight ends, which were Jake Butt and Jeff Heuerman at the time, for six catches for 58 yards on nine targets. LaCosse will hopefully get a healthy number of targets again this week, and he's a low-end starter in deeper leagues.

Bust Alert

McDonald scored a touchdown in Week 15 against New England, but he's still scored nine PPR points or less in four games in a row. He's touchdown dependent for his Fantasy production, but the Saints have allowed just four touchdowns to tight ends for the season. The high for receiving yards for a tight end against New Orleans is 54, which was done by O.J. Howard back in Week 1. The Saints make things tough on tight ends, and McDonald should have minimal production in Week 16.

Defense/Special teams

Start 'Em

Titans (vs. WAS) – 11.4 projected points

The Titans have allowed just nine points in their past two games against Jacksonville and the Giants, including a shutout against New York in Week 15. They have seven sacks over that span, and this should be another rough game for the Washington offense, especially on the road. Washington has scored 16 points or less in three games in a row against Philadelphia, the Giants and Jacksonville, and the Redskins have allowed at least three sacks in seven games in a row.

Sleepers

• Dolphins (vs. JAC): The Jaguars have scored a combined 28 points over their past three games, and the offensive line and quarterback situation is a mess. Cody Kessler has been sacked 10 times in the past two games, and Jacksonville has allowed at least three sacks in five games in a row. The Dolphins might get cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) back this week, which will help their defense, but this is all about the Jaguars offense and their inability to score.
• Browns (vs. CIN): The Browns defense was impressive in Week 15 at Denver with 16 points allowed, two interceptions and two sacks. And they should build on that performance this week against the Bengals, who are down A.J. Green (toe), Tyler Boyd (knee) and Andy Dalton (thumb). The Bengals have scored 21 points or less in five of the past six games, and they allowed seven sacks in two games prior to facing the Raiders in Week 15. 
• Falcons (at CAR): We'll see if Taylor Heinicke can turn things around for the Panthers offense with Cam Newton (shoulder) out, but this should be a tough game for Carolina's offense, especially if Atlanta can contain Christian McCaffrey. The Falcons defense had a dominant performance in Week 15 against Arizona with seven sacks, two interceptions, a fumble recovery and a defensive touchdown. And the Panthers have scored 20 points or less in three games in a row.

Sit 'Em

Ravens (at LAC) – 5.8 projected points

The Ravens defense has been solid all season and has posted some huge numbers of late, especially against Oakland in Week 12, Atlanta in Week 13 and Tampa Bay in Week 15. But they struggled in Week 14 at Kansas City and should have another bad outing this week at the Chargers. While the Chiefs sacked Philip Rivers five times last week, Rivers has only one game with an interception in his past three outings -- and only eight interceptions for the season. The Chargers are also averaging 28.2 points per the game on the year, and I would try to avoid the Ravens DST in this spot on the road.

Kicker

Start 'Em

Elliott got back on track last week with his performance against the Rams. He made 3-of-4 field goals and three extra points, including one field goal of 51 yards. It was his first game with double digits in Fantasy points since Week 10, and I would trust him again in Week 16. He has at least eight Fantasy points in each of his past three home games, and the Texans have allowed seven kickers to make multiple field goals against them this year.

Sleepers

• Dan Bailey (at DET): Bailey also got back on track in Week 15 against Miami with two field goals and five extra points. It was his first game with double digits in Fantasy points since Week 7, but I expect him to play well again at Detroit. The Lions recently allowed three field goals and three extra points in their last home game against the Rams in Week 13, and I expect Bailey to make multiple field goals in this matchup as well.
• Matt Bryant (at CAR): Bryant is coming off a solid game in Week 15 against Arizona with two field goals and four extra points. He's facing a Panthers defense in Week 16 that has allowed multiple field goals in four of their past five games, including two in a row. Bryant has two games with four field goals in his past three trips to Carolina.
• Ryan Succop (vs. WAS): Succop is due for a big game after not scoring in double digits in Fantasy points in five games in a row, but this is a good matchup against Washington. The Redskins have allowed multiple field goals to opposing kickers in three games in a row and four of the past five outings, with two kickers scoring at least 10 Fantasy points over that span.

Sit 'Em

Prater has one game in his past four outings with more than five Fantasy points, and this should be a tough game for the entire Detroit offense. Now, Prater did score nine Fantasy points at Minnesota in Week 9, but the Vikings defense should be able to limit the scoring chances for the Lions in the rematch. Only one kicker has scored double digits in Fantasy points against Minnesota since Week 2.

So who should you sit and start? And what shocking running back could win you Week 16? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking RB finishes in the top 15 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.